• NYT: “Moscow Nuclear Missile Test Hypothesis”
• Ten thousand Russian soldiers in Bakhmut
• US fails to help (migrants have something to do with it):
Biden will hear from his allies to reassure them
• Russia’s weapons: What they are and why Putin says there are tools in Moscow’s arsenal “that its opponents don’t yet have”
• So far Slovakia has helped the Ukrainian resistance
• Zelensky: Our goal is to start negotiations on EU membership this year
5:01 a.m. – Stopping American aid to Ukraine would have “devastating” consequences for Kiev
Experts warn that Ukrainian troops could soon run out of ammunition and equipment if Trump’s elected officials, who are pushing hard for budget negotiations, manage to cut off U.S. funding to Kiev. Since the conflict began in February 2022, the United States has pledged more than $43 billion in military aid to Ukraine, more than half of the total assistance provided by the West. And senior U.S. officials have repeatedly assured that military and humanitarian support to Kyiv “will last as long as it is needed.” However, Republican opposition, driven by a group of far-right elected officials, succeeded on Saturday in getting Congress to approve a preliminary federal budget that does not include this envelope, despite requests from the White House and Senate
This compromise, which avoided government paralysis or “gridlock,” shows that this support for Ukraine is far from set in stone. If this aid were to be stopped, “it would be devastating for the Ukrainians,” warns Mark Cancian, consultant at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington. “Ukrainian troops would become weaker and could even collapse,” he believes, although he believes it is possible “that they could continue to remain on the defensive.” The United States has equipped Kiev with a wide range of weapons – from conventional ammunition to sophisticated air defense and mine clearance systems – to help it carry out its counteroffensive against Russian troops.
“Militaries at war require a constant flow of weapons, supplies and ammunition to replace depleted or destroyed weapons,” notes Cancian. A complete suspension of aid deliveries – which the White House says will not happen – would have no immediate impact because the packages already approved are still being delivered. “We will certainly have to wait a few more weeks until we see the effects on the battlefield,” the expert estimates, and Moscow may not be able to take advantage of this weakening, “the Russians are pretty exhausted at this point.” Outside the front, that would be the end American aid will also lead to a weakening of Ukraine’s air defense, which is equipped with various and complex interoperable systems from different countries and needs to be continuously replenished with ammunition.
These devices play a key role in protecting Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure from numerous Russian drone and missile attacks. “If the American component is eliminated,” emphasizes James Black of the RAND Europe Defense and Security Research Center, “the effectiveness of this entire interdependent system will inevitably be reduced.” Dozens of countries, especially European ones, have provided military aid to Kiev and could increase it, but the vacuum that a withdrawal of US aid would create would be a major problem. It would take “an effort of several years and decades for Europe to reach a level where it can fully replace the United States as a military or industrial defense power,” Black continues. This is not a “comfortable schedule for Ukraine, which needs support in the coming weeks and months (…)”.
The approach of Republicans who control the House of Representatives on whether or not future packages will be approved remains uncertain. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy promised Sunday that he would “guarantee arms sales to Ukraine” but warned that “major aid packages” would not be released until security at the U.S.-Mexico border is strengthened. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin called on lawmakers over the weekend to “fulfill the United States’ commitment to provide urgently needed assistance to Ukrainians fighting to defend their country.” “America must keep its word and continue to lead the international coalition to help Ukraine,” he said in a statement.
4:24 a.m. – Biden, we cannot allow a funding freeze for Ukraine
“We cannot under any circumstances allow American support for Ukraine to be stopped.” “Too many lives, too many children and too many people are at stake,” said Joe Biden at a government meeting in the White House. “I fully expect the Speaker of the House and the majority of Republicans in Congress to remain true to their commitment to ensuring the provision of the necessary support to help Ukraine defend itself against Russian aggression and brutality,” he added added and recalled that the USA “is the indispensable nation in the world”.
00:18 – Pentagon to Congress, we are running out of funds for Kiev
The Pentagon has warned Congress that funding to replace the weapons the United States sent to Ukraine is running out, saying the Defense Department has already been forced to cut equipment shipments to some departments. This is what we read in a letter obtained by the Associated Press that was sent to congressional leaders. The letter, which Under Secretary of Defense Michael J. McCord sent to House and Senate leaders, said that of the $25.9 billion Congress appropriated to the Pentagon to restore the shipped stockpiles of weapons and materiel, only $1.6 billion is available to Ukraine. In addition, the Pentagon still has $5.4 billion worth of weapons and equipment from its arsenals to support Kiev. The interim spending bill passed by Congress over the weekend to avoid a shutdown did not include any new funding for military aid to Ukraine. McCord informed members of Congress that the United States has effectively run out of long-term funding for Kiev to purchase weapons under the Ukrainian Security Assistance Initiative.