In winter for everything. The snow prevents major movements and one side fires at the other in the trenches, with no hope of major progress.
Problem: A stalemate like the one that currently exists is bad for Ukraine. Without significant progress, the counteroffensive launched in June will be even more paralyzed.
In this time of bad news, problems arise. Even the most loyal allies see obstacles previously overlooked. “The Ukrainians keep making the same tactical mistakes,” military analyst Tim Collins, a retired British Army colonel, wrote in the Telegraph.
“A complete doctrinal review is now required to prepare us for the resumption of offensive operations next spring,” he warned. In other words, nothing will be achieved until the second quarter of next year. Collins complains that the Ukrainians are using NATOsupplied equipment and Sovietera military doctrine. That can’t work, he warns repeating criticism that has already been voiced by the German military leadership.
He pointed out another problem: the experienced combatants had already been decimated. “The professional military from before the war has disappeared. Even reservists, even those with some experience or training, were greatly reduced in number. The war is now being fought by civilian conscripts.”
These are painful but realistic words. They reflect the US casualty estimate: 70,000 dead and 100,000 to 120,000 injured. The estimated number of Russian casualties is 300,000 but with a population three times that of Ukraine, the capacity for human replacement is necessary.
The situation is also politically complicated. The American Congress has suspended for 45 days the aid without which Ukraine cannot survive. Western unity has just suffered another rift with the return to power in Slovakia of Robert Fico, who openly sympathizes with him Wladimir Putin. His country has only 5.4 million inhabitants and no strategic perspective, but the European Union and NATO need a unanimous consensus to help Ukraine, not dissent.
American pressure on Ukraine to fight corruption is also much greater than the hugs and exchanges of promises between them Joe Biden It is Volodymyr Zelensky. A document obtained by the website Politico shows that, according to a government source, “direct discussions are taking place behind the scenes.”
There is no point in complaining about the irony of pressure coming from a president whose son is suspected of doing less legitimate business than ethics requires with a major Ukrainian company. The United States foots the bill and can therefore exert pressure at will. The recent downfall of the defense minister, a friend of Zelensky, and the entire top leadership of the ministry shows this.
The document, obtained by Politico, was prepared by the State Department and also speaks of reforming the security apparatus to achieve a “decentralized and risktolerant approach to task performance” and “reduce opportunities for corruption.” The word “deoligarchization” was even invented, especially in the mining and energy sectors.
In short: the house has not fallen down for Ukraine, but the roof is burning and there are no or insufficiently strong signs of a turnaround in the military sphere that would strengthen political support and neutralize barbarities like those said by Dmitry Medvedev. Reduced to the role of Putin’s poodle, the former Russian president began ranting about a third world war again after new British defense secretary Grant Schapps considered sending British soldiers to train Ukrainian fighters on site.
Medvedev’s role is to express the unspeakable and raise the prospect of nuclear war. Saying that supporting Ukraine would lead to the destruction of the planet is one of the main tools of Russian propaganda. Resisting this kind of psychological terror requires great conviction not only in the justice of the Ukrainian cause, but also in the certainty that the cause will prevail.
It’s this last part that’s now stalling.