One certainly cannot accuse Nadef of being careless when it comes to the balance sheet, but several pitfalls are looming for Carlo Stagnaro. The IBL research director confided in us his concerns about market fluctuations and traced the path from the growth spurt to privatization.
They are demanding a prudent budget from the government that balances budget discipline and supporting families’ purchasing power. What is your opinion?
“Nadef’s words are certainly prudent: the Mef reiterates on every side that the government’s stance is one of prudence. However, the numbers say something different: in 2024 the deficit will grow from 3.6% of the trend scenario to 4.3% of the programmatic scenario, in 2025 from 3.4% to 3.6% and only in 2025 will it increase 3% (2.9%) fell short. compared to 3.1%). In practice, the adjustment of the public budget is postponed until the last year of the legislative period. Furthermore, the situation could be even worse considering that these estimates take into account a fairly high growth expectation and even a percentage point of GDP in privatization proceeds. Everyone should judge how credible these promises are.”
The update note on the def is undoubtedly prudent. But what impact could it have on Italy’s growth?
“According to financial engineers, the government’s economic policy is likely to have a positive growth effect of at least 0.4 points in 2024. This effect is largely due to tax cuts, so above all to the confirmation of the reduction in the tax burden. “That certainly doesn’t do any harm, but it is difficult to imagine that there can be such a significant upturn in such an uncertain time.”
Given the numbers circulating, there will be very few interventions that can be implemented. Which measures should the manager give top priority to?
“Instead of focusing on the things that need to be done, it would be better for the government at this moment to focus on the things that should not be done.” For example, while Nadef promises privatizations, he explains what for everyone What is obvious is that he will continue with the plan to nationalize the TIM network. This follows other similar interventions: Ilva and Autostrade are just two examples of companies that have returned to public sphere of influence. In Via XX Settembre they would do well to flip the switch from the nationalization button to the privatization button, as Nadef says, but at the moment they are doing the opposite. The first real test will be MPS.
The debt trend remains high, there is talk of spreads, and there is uncertainty in the markets. Some are even talking about a transitional government. How big is the cause for concern?
“I don’t think there is a realistic prospect of an interim government. However, I believe that the fluctuations in the market indicate a serious problem: Italy today has the second highest public debt in Europe in terms of GDP after Greece, and we will soon take first place because Athens is taking the issue much more seriously than we are “debt”.
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Luca Sablone