By Dom Luszczyszyn, Shayna Goldman and Sean Gentille
The days of the Dallas Stars being treated as a one-line team on the fringes of the Western Conference playoffs are officially over.
We knew Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz and Joe Pavelski were outstanding. We knew the same thing about Miro Heiskanen. Jake Oettinger, coming off one of the most spectacular playoff series defeats in recent history, also seemed like a safe bet.
However, Dallas leveled up last season, thanks in part to better contributions throughout the lineup, and came within two wins of the Stanley Cup Final. Now, after another summer of significant additions to an elite core, they’re not just looking to return to the Western Conference Finals; They are trophy hunting, and they should be.
The projection
The stars are contenders. Not a playoff team. Not a dark horse. An absolute contender. Only one team has a higher chance of winning the Stanley Cup than the Stars this season, and only one other team has a higher chance of advancing to the second round.
It wasn’t easy to get to this point. There’s been a long decade or more of uneven mediocrity, with the stars being as mediocre as it gets. Every successful deviation during this period (2015-16, 2019-20) was quickly followed by immediate disappointment.
All that changed last year, and the Stars have the 2017 draft to thank for it. Dallas picked up three franchise players in a single draft and now looks like a strong league for years to come. This Stars team is here to stay.
That doesn’t mean they don’t have flaws, but that’s true of any elite team in a salary cap world. The top of the league is more competitive and open than it has been in years. For proof of this, just look at Dallas, the third-best team, and their chances of finishing in the top five. The competition is fierce in this regard, but the stars are at the top of the rankings. Last season’s conference run was just the beginning.
The bar chart percentiles are based on each player’s offensive, defensive and net rating relative to their time on ice, meaning the starting forward is only compared to other starting forwards.
The strengths
There is a recurring theme among the teams at the top of the league: their core is their greatest strength. Go through the list of top 10 teams and they are all there for the same reason. Some teams have a better core, others have stronger depth, but the most important thing is that the team’s best players are driving the bus. The same goes for Dallas, a team that now has a claim to one of the most exciting cores in the league.
Of course, that starts with the top line – a line that has serious claims to be among the best in the league. And that’s not because they dominated last year, powered by a superstar performance from Jason Robertson. It certainly helped, but this line has been exceptionally good for three straight seasons.
During this time, the trio played 1,785 minutes together and scored 64 percent of the goals and 60 percent of the expected goals. There are only a handful of teams in the league that can be counted on to achieve the same five-on-five system, but one of them (Boston) has just lost the crucial cog by withdrawing and the others don’t have three stars. Level riders who run the show like that.
Between Robertson, Roope Hintz and Joe Pavelski, each player has a specific job to do and they do it well. That’s what makes the line work so well together – and also makes it so difficult to see their individual value.
Robertson is the finisher and the offensive zone expert. His ability to create chances from shots and passes is top notch, he is a force off the cycle or the rush and consistently produces the best results of all three. Over the past three years, he has averaged over 2.8 points per 60 at five-on-five each season, something no other player can claim (although Nathan MacKinnon is close). Last year, he also took over the power-play focus position and scored 9.1 points per 60 (fourth in the league behind three Oilers), leading Dallas to a top-five finish on the man advantage. He’s good and finished last season with the third-highest net rating of plus-23. Expect more of the same this season.
However, Robertson probably won’t be able to do any of this without Hintz. He’s a skilled passer with a top-notch high-danger assist rate who also does a lot of the work moving the puck up the ice. Hintz is one of the league’s best at getting the puck in and creating a chance from the gate – usually to Robertson. It’s a perfect chemistry that starts with Hintz’s ability to get the puck up the ice through all three zones. He is also particularly important in the defensive zone.
As for the elder statesman, Pavelski has always done a little bit of everything. He fills the gaps where needed, be it finishing, passing, cycling, rushing, carrying or defending. Pavelski is still the ultimate Swiss Army Knife type of player who fits the chemistry between Robertson and Hintz perfectly.
It helps that the trio also have very strong defensive capabilities, and that’s another part of the appeal of the top line. The reputation may not be good, especially for Robertson, but the numbers speak for themselves. Because they own the puck so much, they rarely give up much.
Robertson and Hintz, two players we refer to as “franchise players” in our annual player tier project, are leading the way, but they aren’t the only stars in this group. Miro Heiskanen also managed to give the Stars three players at this level. Only Colorado, Tampa Bay and Boston can say the same. He ranked sixth in net rating among defensemen last season, although it’s clear he still has a little more to give to move up the ranks. If Heiskanen can combine last year’s offensive breakthrough with the defensive dominance he has shown in recent seasons, he has a serious chance of winning his first Norris Trophy.
To top it all off, there’s Jake Oettinger, Dallas’ ace in the hole. He’s what makes Dallas’ core so intriguing compared to other top teams. Edmonton, Colorado, Toronto and New Jersey are the four teams best known for their high-end talent, and those teams certainly have more explosive forwards (and in Colorado’s case, the best defenseman in the league). But none of them have a slam-dunk goaltender between the posts who has proven very capable of stealing a series.
Jake Oettinger saves. (Jerome Miron/USA Today)
The 24-year-old Oettinger enters the season with a projected net rating of plus-12, a mark that ranks sixth in the league behind Ilya Sorokin, Juuse Saros, Igor Shesterkin, Andrei Vasilevskiy (when healthy) and Connor Hellebuyck . He’s on the cusp of being in the top five and is the next highest ranked goalie in this area. Last year, he ranked eighth in the league with 21.7 goals saved thanks to a .918 save percentage. There’s some risk with such a high projection — he was just average before that and had a poor playoff performance last year — but that’s probably not a huge cause for concern. The talent level here is obvious.
It helps that Dallas has plenty of solid defensive backs who can also isolate Oettinger. Heiskanen is obviously a beast, but so is Esa Lindell. Thomas Harley’s numbers are also good, and although Ryan Suter’s play has deteriorated, he is still performing well without the puck.
There’s also a lot of firepower up front and that extends beyond the top line. Dallas enters the season with a top-five forward group and that is a result of the strength the team has built over the years.
Jamie Benn’s renaissance is at the top of this list and his current projection actually exceeds how good he could be. He was once again an offensive force, scoring 78 points with his puck skills while making some serious rebounds. He created quality opportunities, especially off the court, and was much more active with the puck outside the offensive zone. This resulted in a net rating of plus-12, his best since 2017-18. Thanks to his defensive abilities, he was actually at a similar pace in the 2020-21 season, making it a little more likely that he can do it again. Due to a weaker season in between, the model is not selling so well.
Benn spent the entire season with rookie Wyatt Johnston and the duo developed great chemistry, scoring 62 percent of the goals. Benn’s return to his level and Johnston’s continued development are a big part of Dallas’ rise to Cup contention.
The outside help brought in last year also contributes to this. Mason Marchment wasn’t as productive as he was in Florida, but he’s still a very useful top-9 forward who should be better in his second season in Dallas. Evgenii Dadonov didn’t fare well here but looked rejuvenated after arriving in Dallas. Most exciting is the arrival of Matt Duchene, who brings a lot of offensive flair to the middle six. He may no longer be a true elite talent, but as a complement, there’s still a lot to love about his fast and dynamic game.
Combine the incredible top nine with the old core pieces, an up-and-coming rookie and outside reinforcements, and the Stars’ forward group looks loaded from top to bottom.
The weaknesses
There’s a key weakness for the Stars that didn’t prevent the team from advancing to the conference finals last season, but it’s still a glaring problem this season. Aside from Heiskanen, things look pretty bleak on the blue line when it comes to offense. Say what you will about John Klingberg, his absence has left a significant void in terms of offense from the back end.
The two best candidates to create something there are Thomas Harley and Nils Lundkvist, but both are still fairly untested in the role. Behind them? Shot.
Ask any celebrity fan who their biggest problem is and they’ll immediately point to Ryan Suter – and the model doesn’t disagree. He is no longer well suited for a top four position, and that also applies to everyone behind Heiskanen. Move each defender down one spot and everything is fine, but a clearly defined top pair defender is clearly missing here. Lindell, as good as he is defensively, right?
In addition, there are usually arguments here and there. And even with those suckers, it’s not hard to see the player’s value to the Stars.
Radek Faksa is a perfect example of this. By net rating, he doesn’t perform well at all, even for a fourth-line center, and that’s because he brings next to nothing to the table offensively. He’s a black hole in the offensive zone, averaging 0.97 points per 60 at five-on-five over the last three seasons. He ranks 333rd among the 341 forwards who played 1,500 minutes or more.
But given all the other offensive weapons on the team, that’s an okay concession for Faksa’s defense. While he himself may not be able to do much with the puck when he’s out there, neither can the other team. Last year that meant 1.51 goals against per 60 and 1.98 expected goals against per 60 while he was on the ice.
Further up the lineup is Tyler Seguin, once a core member of the team, who now seems a bit out of place in a starring role. He was fourth on the team’s forward depth chart last year, and while he’s closer to his pre-surgery self, there’s still a risk of the 31-year-old forward slipping.
Even if he manages to do that, he’ll be pretty well protected by Dallas’ strength in the middle six behind him. Place him behind Johnston or Duchene and his valuation looks far more reasonable. Seguin may no longer be a true top-six driver, but he’s still a solid fixture in that role.
The wild card
Can Wyatt Johnston and Thomas Harley take a step toward becoming Dallas’ elite depth?
A key part of expanding the competitive window is matching veterans with young talent. Obviously, cornerstones like Robertson, Hintz and Heiskanen help make this happen. This also applies to up-and-coming players like Johnston and Harley.
Johnston became a reliable source of secondary scoring, especially at five-on-five, where he scored 80 percent of his 41 points. He became a staple in the middle class with Benn and Ty Dellandrea. The youth brought by Johnston and Dellandrea gave the Stars some momentum below their elite top line and contributed to Benn’s revitalized game. It also helped that they were able to cope with a few difficult minutes to keep the front row as clear as possible.
If Johnston can build on that and not suffer from a second-year slump, the Stars will be lucky. As it stands, he’s doing pretty well as a sixth striker. But this is someone who could definitely move up the rankings past some veterans who are ahead of him on the depth chart. He’s great in the offensive zone, but could be more involved in moving the puck up the ice before that.
Harley still has some room to grow to truly assert himself as the team’s No. 3 player – but that’s because he only has six games under his belt in the regular season. This is a puck-moving defenseman who earned minutes late in the year and became part of the rotation in the playoffs. He couldn’t be used in the most difficult situations, but he made a positive impact on both ends of the ice, particularly in 19 playoff games.
At the very least, he’s someone who can help move the game forward offensively from the blue line at even strength and on the second power play unit. Ideally, he can really support Heiskanen and perhaps help the coaches manage his minutes a little better. The more he can shoulder his own minutes, the less coaches will have to rely on someone like Suter, who he is at this point.
The best case
Elite players at every position and an improved supporting cast make Dallas the odds-on favorite in the West. Robertson, Heiskanen and Oettinger are all on the shortlist for postseason awards. With this combination of star skaters, depth and elite goaltending, the Stars have earned 16 playoff victories and the franchise’s first Cup win since 1999. There is no need for a “foot in the foot” moment.
The worst case
Pavelski finally shows how old he is by losing momentum in the top line and affecting the mix at forward. Oettinger stagnates. Players like Harley and Johnston are having growing pains. Dallas makes it to the playoffs, but doesn’t do well and then loses to Minnesota in the first round.
The final result
The Stars may have been an underrated threat in the West last year. But this year they are a real contender. Weaknesses that have hindered them in recent years have been consistently addressed. There is depth behind their elite top line to allow for a more balanced scoring approach. There are young players in significant roles to balance their veteran presence.
Led by a star-studded core, Dallas should be a power in the West. The team is entering the year with the best prospects for success in a long time. The road ahead will not be easy, that is not the case for any of the competitors. But the stars are primed to take them further than last year and into the finals.
References
How these projections work
Understanding projection uncertainty
resources
Ice hockey is changing
Natural statistics trick
Hockey reference
NHL
All three zones track by Corey Sznajder
Read the other 2023-24 season previews here.
(Top photo of Jason Robertson and Joe Pavelski: Sam Hodde / NHLI via Getty Images)