You can’t really get a handle on NFL teams until a month of the season is over.
We are there.
That means it’s time for me to get started with these tips. Week 4 wasn’t great. I went 10-6 outright, but 6-9-1 against the spread.
That’s vulgar.
The season records are now 39-25-0 straight up and 29-33-2 against the spread. The second number must be better. It will.
It’s October. It’s time to level up.
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime Video)
It’s not a nice game for a Thursday evening. But both teams performed well in last week’s losses, which represents progress for the Bears. The Commanders got Sam Howell back on track against the Eagles. This is a bad Bears defense, so it will continue. The Washington defense will limit Justin Fields. Commanders take it.
Choose: Commanders 30, Bears 17
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFLN, fubo)
This is Buffalo’s home game, but the Jaguars will have been in London for over a week by the time the game begins. This is an advantage. Buffalo was dominant against Miami last week and Josh Allen is playing at a high level. The Jaguars looked better last week, but they won’t be able to slow Allen down. There will be a high score. Win bills.
Choose: Bills 30, Jaguars 20
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Texans have been one of the surprises so far this season. CJ Stroud was outstanding. Not Desmond Ridder. The Texans are the better team right now, but it will be a big challenge against a Falcons team that is coming off a loss. Atlanta will get back on track. The Falcons take it.
Choose: Falcons 27, Texans 21
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Panthers are 0-4 and Bryce Young is struggling. Now they face a Lions team that will be rested after last Thursday’s game. Detroit impressed by shutting out Green Bay on the road and their defense came up big. This will continue to be the case as the Lions are 4-1 behind the defense.
Choose: Lions 30, Panthers 14
I only make straight-up and against-the-spread picks, but this Sportsline projection model closely examines the overall results for each game. See which side you should bet on here.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
In a division where everyone has the same 2-2 record, this is an important game to start the season. The Titans impressed in their win over the Bengals last week, with the defense playing well. That will carry over here. The Titans will slow down Anthony Richardson and the Colts while Derrick Henry has a field day. Titans take it.
Choose: Titans 24, Colts 20
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Giants are a mess. The offensive line is a big problem. The Dolphins also have some issues with the line, but after a mediocre game last week, Tua Tagovailoa will get it going again. Big dolphins. The offensive explodes again.
Choose: Dolphins 35, Giants 20
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
These two both suffered losses, although the attacks were terrible. Mac Jones is really struggling for the Patriots while Derek Carr looked injured last week. This game is dominated by the defense. Give me the Patriots at home – even with the poor offense.
Choose: Patriots 21, Saints 17
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
It’s back-to-back road games for the Ravens, but they played well in Cleveland. They faced a backup quarterback and could do the same here. Lamar Jackson and the offense seem to be getting Todd Monken’s system going. But something says the Steelers will regroup in this game, no matter who plays quarterback for them.
Choose: Steelers 20, Ravens 17
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
At 1-3, the Bengals are in survival mode. This is a back-to-back away game which makes it difficult. Arizona has been resolute with a 1-3 record so far, but I think this is the week that Joe Burrow and the offense get the Bengals going. If not, they’re done. Burrow is having a nice day.
Choose: Bengals 27, Cardinals 23
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
This is a long journey for an Eagles team that is undefeated but certainly not playing like it did at the end of last season. The Rams are 2-2 and above average. The Rams have shown that they will be competitive against good teams. I think that shows here. It’s near.
Choose: Eagles 26, Rams 24
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This is the Nathanial Hackett Bowl, so named because Broncos coach Sean Payton hired Hackett for his coaching job in Denver last season. Hackett is now the Jets’ offensive coordinator. Payton is 1-3 and his team hasn’t looked good. The Jets did well in their loss to the Chiefs last Sunday night. That will carry over here. Zach Wilson is playing better again and the Jets defense is suffocating Russell Wilson.
Choose: Jets 21, Broncos 18
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Vikings won for the first time last week and now face a Chiefs team playing on the road in consecutive weeks. The Chiefs haven’t looked great on offense this season, but the Vikings’ defense is the perfect tonic. Look for Patrick Mahomes to light up Brian Flores’ aggressive defense.
Choose: Chiefs 34, Vikings 23
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)
This is the game of the week, a rematch of San Francisco’s playoff win last week. The 49ers are in full swing right now and the Cowboys are coming off a win over the Patriots. But this is a difficult task on the road. Look for the 49ers to make the most of it again as Christian McCaffrey continues his MVP play.
Choose: 49ers 26, Cowboys 20
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN, fubo)
The Packers are coming off a terrible home loss last Thursday, but they had time to stew and get some guys healthy again. The Raiders looked bad when they lost to the Chargers. Jimmy Garoppolo may be here again, but that doesn’t matter. The Packers take it.
Choose: Packers 28, Raiders 21