The times seem far away when a Odessa Trenches were dug on the beach and the population expected one, especially in the first days of the war landing of the Russians in the city. Today, 18 months later, the situation is in Black Sea seems to be leaning more in favor of the Ukrainians. Although Kiev no longer has a de facto navy, it has organized several Raids in the main Russian naval bases.
Drones, unmanned boats firing at sensitive targets, missile attacks: all of this has put Moscow’s forces in serious trouble in the region. And so, as stated in the Institute for the Study of War (Etc), the Russian Navy decided to withdraw part of the fleet from Crimea Novorossiysk. A decision that could have important military and political implications.
The withdrawal of the fleet
The ISW has no doubts: there are witness statements and satellite photos that prove some of it retreat the Russian fleet Sevastopol. From the most important naval base in the Black Sea, the defense of which Moscow supported in 2014annexation Crimea from Ukraine. At least two frigates, three submarines, as well as some landing ships and several lookouts were stationed much further east. These are vehicles that are no longer in Crimea, but in the city of Novorossiysk.
As always emphasized by the ISW, the move could have two explanations. On the one hand, it could be a ordinary repositioning, rotations that are more for logistical than tactical reasons. But the quantity and importance of vehicles moved seems to favor another hypothesis: that of repositioning due to security reasons. This means that the ships could remain indefinitely in the port of Novorossiysk, which is considered safer from attacks and incursions from the Ukrainian side. The city is not in Crimea, but south of Krasnodar.
The vehicles brought here may therefore no longer be within the range of Ukrainian missiles, nor within the range of drones and incursions of various kinds by the Kiev forces. A way to make defending Russia’s strategic and vital Black Sea Fleet less difficult.
The latest raids in Sevastopol
The recent episodes in which Sevastopol was directly involved also give rise to the second hypothesis, namely that relating to tactical and defensive change. The city and especially its port area were hit hard on September 22nd. The missiles fired from Ukraine hit, among other things, the building where the fleet was stationed. All this happened, at least according to Kiev’s version, while an important meeting was taking place between some Russian generals.
The version implemented at the end of September represented the raid undoubtedly the most striking, but not the only one. Ukrainian forces have used remote-controlled drones and boats on other occasions. Means that are more difficult to defend against and that the Russians have had to deal with on several occasions.
In fact, the small boats have repeatedly caused significant damage to the vessels anchored in Sevastopol and the port infrastructure. In other episodes, such as Cape Tarkhankut, there was an incursion by Ukrainian soldiers. Demonstrative actions that, however, showed a certain vulnerability of the defenses in Crimea. Hence the potentially drastic decision: to move a large part of the fleet away from an increasingly less defensible peninsula.
What does the withdrawal of the Black Sea Fleet mean?
If the hypothesis of tactical withdrawal is confirmed, the implications would be diverse. Based on the fact that the Russians felt that they were constantly losing ground in the Black Sea: At the beginning of the war, the Russian fleet kept the Ukrainian coasts, especially in Odessa, under constant pressure. Several times the threat of an amphibious landing seemed to become a reality. Then, on the first day of the conflict, the Russians easily took control of the areaSnake Island.
However, over the months the picture has changed. The downfall of theCruiser Moscow it was the first alarm bell. The fleet off the Ukrainian coast was no longer safe and the Russians had to give up any ambitions on Odessa. The subsequent attacks by the Ukrainian side in Crimea further weakened Moscow’s position in the waters of the Black Sea. Kiev was also able to capture some oil platforms that had already been lost in 2014.
The withdrawal from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk could therefore be the final act of a steady erosion of Russian supremacy in the region. With all the foreseeable consequences of the case, not only at the tactical level, but also with regard to the morale of the soldiers and generals stationed in Crimea.