Global development
The toll is likely to worsen as floods, storms, droughts and wildfires increase due to the climate crisis, according to a study by Unicef and IDMC
At least 43 million children have been displaced by extreme weather events in the last six years. That’s the equivalent of 20,000 children forced to leave home and school every day, a new study has found.
According to the first analysis of its kind by Unicef and the Internal Displacement Monitoring Center (IDMC), floods and storms were responsible for 95% of recorded child displacements between 2016 and 2021. The rest – more than 2 million children – were displaced by wildfires and drought.
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Displacement is traumatic and frightening regardless of age, but the consequences can be particularly disturbing and damaging for children, who may be deprived of education, life-saving vaccinations and social networks.
“It is terrible for every child when a devastating wildfire, storm or flood hits their community,” said UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell. “For those forced to flee, the fear and impact can be particularly devastating as they worry about whether they will have to return home, return to school or move again.”
In absolute numbers, China, the Philippines and India dominate, with 22.3 million displaced children – just over half of the total – which the report attributes to the countries’ geographical exposure to extreme weather conditions such as monsoon rains and hurricanes, as well as large child populations preventive evacuations.
However, the largest share of child displacement occurred in small island states – many of which face existential threats due to the climate emergency – and in the Horn of Africa, where conflict, extreme weather, poor governance and resource exploitation intersect.
A staggering 76% of children were displaced on the small Caribbean island of Dominica, which was devastated by Hurricane Maria in 2017, a Category 4 Atlantic storm that damaged 90% of the island’s housing stock. Storms also displaced more than a quarter of children in Cuba, Vanuatu, St. Martin and the Northern Mariana Islands.
Somalia and South Sudan recorded the highest number of child displacements due to flooding, affecting 12% and 11% of the child population, respectively.
“Children Displaced in a Changing Climate” is the first global analysis of the children displaced from their homes due to floods, storms, droughts and wildfires, and comes at a time of weather-related disasters due to the global impact caused by fossil fuels Heating is becoming increasingly intense, destructive and unpredictable.
The report’s high numbers are almost certainly an underestimate because of large gaps in reporting on droughts and slow-onset climate impacts such as rising sea levels, desertification and rising temperatures.
“This is a completely conservative estimate and may just be the tip of the iceberg for some climate impacts,” said Verena Knaus, Unicef head of global migration and displacement. “Climate is the fastest growing driver of child displacement, yet most policies and discussions about climate finance do not consider or prioritize children.”
In 2021, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that there could be no further expansion of oil, gas and coal production if the world wanted to have any chance of avoiding catastrophic climate collapse. The world failed to heed the warning and emissions cuts are completely out of control, according to the United Nations’ latest global inventory, the most comprehensive analysis of global climate action to date.
In August 2022, unprecedented floods inundated a third of Pakistan, causing billions of dollars in damage and displacing around 3.6 million children – many of whom were without access to adequate shelter, clean drinking water and sanitation for months. For every additional 1°C of warming, the global risk of displacement due to flooding is expected to increase by up to 50%.
The Unicef analysis found that 1.3 million children have been displaced due to the drought, with Somalia, Ethiopia and Afghanistan by far the worst affected countries. Water shortages due to poor harvests force people to move and obtain drinking water for themselves and their livestock. However, the true extent of drought migration is unknown because it is difficult to measure and is woefully under-reported.
Meanwhile, three-quarters (610,000 of 810,000) of wildfire-related child displacements occurred in the United States, with more than half of the remainder occurring in Canada, Israel, Turkey and Australia. In the United States, fires are increasingly associated with the expanding Wildland Urban Interface (WUI), the zone between undeveloped wildland and human development, where more than 3,000 homes and other buildings are destroyed each year.
Earlier this year, entire communities were displaced by forest fires in Canada and Greece.
Overall, children were responsible for a third of the 135 million global internal displacements linked to more than 8,000 weather-related disasters between 2016 and 2021 – and the toll is expected to get much worse, according to the report.
River flooding poses the greatest future risk and could displace nearly 96 million children over the next 30 years, according to the IDMC Disaster Displacement Model. Based on current climate data, winds and storm surges could displace 10.3 million and 7.2 million children, respectively, over the same period, although the situation could be much worse if fossil fuels are not urgently phased out.
Due to their large populations, India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, the Philippines and China are likely to displace the most children. Relatively speaking, children in the British Virgin Islands, the Bahamas and Antigua and Barbuda are predicted to suffer the most displacement due to weather disasters in the coming years.
“The figures are extremely worrying and show the urgent need for states to recognize the link between climate change and displacement and plan to minimize long-term impacts on health, education and other developments for displaced children,” said Adeline Neau, an Amnesty International researcher for Central America and Mexico.
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