The Diamondbacks rotation in 2001 essentially consisted of Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling and everyone else. The Big Unit and Schill started in 70 games this season. The Diamondbacks won 52 of them, an unimaginable winning percentage of .829.
Manager Bob Brenly, not wanting to mess with a good thing, stuck with the same formula until Arizona won the first and only World Series in franchise history.
It wasn’t a new idea. In 1948, the Boston Braves relied so heavily on Warren Spahn and Johnny Sain that after winning the National League pennant, the team is still remembered with the saying “Spahn and Sain and pray for rain.”
The same outlines appear to be emerging from the fog of the clubhouse smoke machine that the Phillies use to celebrate home wins as they prepare to face that ’48s club’s upstart, the Atlanta Braves, in the National League Division Series starting Saturday at Truist Park.
Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola were so dominant that if you squint a little, it’s not hard to imagine them hoisting a big, shiny trophy at some point in the next few weeks.
Except one thing. Neither Wheeler nor Nola will be available to pitch in Game 1 during normal rest. And even Johnson and Schilling needed contributions from a supporting cast. I’m looking at you, Miguel Batista and Brian Anderson.
When the Phillies’ charter left for Atlanta on Thursday afternoon, manager Rob Thomson had not yet announced his starter for Game 1. Barring a big surprise – perhaps an opening goal or some similar sleight of hand – his options are left-handers Ranger Suarez and Cristopher Sanchez or right-hander Taijuan Walker.
The schedule is a little strange this year. There are three days off in the best-of-five series: Between Games 1 and 2. Between Games 2 and 3. And, if necessary, between Games 4 and 5.
This means Wheeler will start Game 2 on October 9th with an additional day of rest. Nola can begin Game 3 on Oct. 11 with two extra days. And Wheeler would be ready for Game 5 on his normal day if needed.
Here’s a look at what factors could play a role in deciding who will pitch the opening game and possibly Game 4 as well.
THE OBVIOUS CHOICE
The Suarez case: There can be an invisible pecking order in baseball, and all things being equal, that start should go to the 26-year-old, who is the longest-serving candidate for the job.
But it’s not just his seniority. In the 2021-22 season, Suarez was a combined 18-12 with a 2.72 earned run average. Thomson often talks about how unflappable he is. And he had some success against the Braves. In his only start against Atlanta this year on June 20, he allowed one run on four hits in six innings.
In his career, he is 2-2 with a 3.00 ERA in 16 games, including seven as a starter, against the Braves. And he has good life numbers against some of Atlanta’s best hitters: MVP candidate Ronald Acuña Jr. and Marcell Ozuna are both 3-for-13 (.231) against Suarez. Matt Olson is 3 for 14 (.214). Ozzie Albies is 3 for 15 (.200). The hitter he wants to throw around is Austin Riley: 6-for-15 with one homer and an OPS of 1.233.
Another interesting breakdown: While his Citizens Bank Park ERA was 5.45, on the road (where Game 1 of the NLDS is played) he was 2.75.
Last year, he showed he could come up big in moments that mattered, going 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA in five postseason appearances.
The case against: Suarez began the season on the injured list with forearm tightness, then was sidelined for the second time in August with an elbow strain and had an up-and-down season while in the rotation.
He didn’t finish particularly well either, with a 5.20 ERA in five starts in September. In his last outing on Sept. 27 against the Pirates, he gave up six runs on nine hits in 4 2/3 innings and showed uncharacteristic frustration afterward. “I’m just mad at myself,” he said through translator Diego Ettedgui. “You wouldn’t want to offer anyone that kind of service. And you want to finish the regular season strong.”
Thomson also likes to refer to Suarez as a “Swiss Army Knife,” pointing to the fact that he has had both experience and success in substitution, which could mean he is viewed as more valuable as part of a bullpen mix.
HIGH RISK, HIGH REWARD
The case for Sanchez: The 26-year-old was a godsend after being recalled in June, cementing the fifth spot in the rotation. And you could argue that from that point until the end of the season he was more consistent than Suarez. In 18 starts, he allowed more than three runs only twice.
The case against: He has less big league experience than Suarez and went 0-2 with a 5.56 earned run average in two September starts against the Braves. Albies, Riley and Acuña Jr. are a combined 9 for 18 (.500) with two home runs against him.
THE LONG SHOT
The case for Walker: When the Phillies gave him a four-year, $72 million contract last offseason, it’s likely they envisioned the 31-year-old as the type of pitcher they’d hand the ball to in the big October games.
He was durable, making 31 starts. And while wins are a devalued statistic, he led the team in that category with 15.
And while Atlanta’s high-powered offense shows little preference in which pitchers they victimize, the Braves have been slightly less effective against right-handed pitchers (.272 average, .837 OPS) than against lefties (.288 and .870).
The Case Against: Walker’s effectiveness steadily declined as the season progressed. His ERA rose from 1.50 in June to 3.86 in July, to 4.76 in August and to 5.93 in September. He gave up 16 hits and 8 earned runs in 12 innings in two starts against the Braves.
NOTES ON A DISPLAY
- Both Game 1 on Saturday and Game 2 on Monday begin at 6 p.m. in Atlanta. Right-hander Spencer Strider and left-hander Max Fried, who is dealing with a blister, are expected to start those games for the Braves.
- The Phillies defeated the Marlins in the wild-card round, but the Braves’ offense will be a much different challenge in the NLDS. Consider: Miami’s run differential for the regular season was minus-57. The Braves were plus-231. The Marlins were last in the NL in runs scored (666) and ranked 10th in home runs (166). The Braves led in both categories with 947 and 307.
- All four division winners with the best records, including Atlanta, will advance to the Division Series after a five-day break and a first-round bye. In the first year of this format last season, three of the four teams that had gained this supposed lead were beaten. That included the Phillies upsetting the Braves.