Billions of dollars in U.S. military and economic aid have enabled Ukraine to repel the Russian invasion, but the future of that support is now in serious doubt.
Congress approved a stopgap deal last month to keep the federal government open, but ruled out a request from President Biden to give Ukraine another round of funding. As the House of Representatives decides who its next speaker will be, some Republicans are resisting sending more money to Kyiv.
Mr. Biden has said for months that the United States will support Ukraine’s fight against Russia “for as long as necessary.” But he can’t give that guarantee because future aid deliveries require congressional approval.
Administration officials warn that aid is critical to Ukraine’s survival and say they are considering options in the event that Congress ends or reduces U.S. support for the country.
How much has the US given to Ukraine so far?
Congress has approved approximately $113 billion in response to Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.
Of that, almost $62 billion went to the Department of Defense. An additional $32.5 billion was allocated to the U.S. Agency for International Development.
According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, most of the balance was forwarded to the State Department and other ministries and agencies.
Not all of the money was spent directly on Ukraine. Part of this has helped arm other European countries against further Russian military aggression, political interference and disinformation campaigns.
And part of it has been used for higher spending in the Defense Department, such as sending new US troops to Europe.
What happens if Congress doesn’t approve more money for Ukraine?
Militarily, Ukraine has some breathing room: Under previous spending bills passed by Congress, Mr. Biden can still get around $5.6 billion in materiel from the military’s reserves (thanks largely to an accounting error by the Pentagon where the aid already given to Ukraine was overstated).
For comparison, according to the State Department, a $500 million payout in June was enough to finance Bradley and Stryker vehicles, air defense munitions, artillery, multiple rocket systems, anti-tank weapons, anti-radiation missiles and precision air munitions.
And a pause in new funding will not affect existing Pentagon contracts under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. This means that new weapons and equipment will continue to be shipped to Ukraine in the coming months and years.
In May, the Defense Ministry reported that $5.6 billion was contracted for the production of goods for Ukraine such as HIMARS missiles, tactical vehicles, radar, ammunition and many others.
“Congress’s current inability to fund a new package does not mean that Ukraine will be cut off immediately, as billions of dollars in defense aid are already in the pipeline for medium- and longer-term contracts.” said Eric Ciaramella, a former National Security Council director for Ukraine who is now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “And even in a scenario where Congress is unable to fund a new package, U.S. defense support to Ukraine will continue.”
Economic and humanitarian aid could pose a bigger problem. It is unclear whether the Biden administration still has funds to support Ukraine’s federal budget and meet the needs of the country’s millions of refugees. The U.S. Agency for International Development did not respond to a request for comment.
U.S. and European officials say Europe could make up some of the shortfalls, particularly in economic and humanitarian needs, if American aid stops completely.
But Europe would be hard-pressed to match the United States’ ability to rapidly produce large quantities of military equipment.
“We can’t do it without a strong American commitment,” Anders Fogh Rasmussen, a former NATO secretary general, said in an interview last week.
How could President Biden get more help from Congress?
That’s a question administration officials have been debating in recent days.
Mr. Biden has taken an incremental approach, asking Congress for $24 billion to help Ukraine over the next few months, hoping that would be a more palatable option for lawmakers.
But Congress’s failure to act on that request before the end of the fiscal year has increased a desire on Capitol Hill to avoid recurring politically contentious clashes, putting pressure on Mr. Biden to seek a larger aid package that includes Ukraine could support the 2024 US presidential election throughout the year.
The path forward depends in part on how House Republicans resolve the political infighting that led to Kevin McCarthy’s ouster as speaker on Tuesday. Some of the Republicans who ousted Mr. McCarthy described him as too supportive of Ukraine’s spending. And at least one prominent candidate to replace him, Republican Jim Jordan of Ohio, has said that as speaker he will not introduce a bill to fund Ukraine in the House.
It’s possible that Democrats could persuade Republicans to act through their own policy concessions, such as acquiescing to some calls for tougher measures to limit illegal migration across the U.S.-Mexico border.
How has the money for Ukraine been spent so far?
Congress has given the Biden administration significant flexibility in when and how it can spend the allocated $113 billion.
According to the State Department, the United States has spent nearly $44 billion on military aid to Ukraine.
Mr. Biden has used a power called the “Presidential Drawdown Authority” dozens of times to quickly ship weapons to Ukraine. This allows the Pentagon to send artillery shells, armored vehicles, missiles and other equipment from US military stocks. The Pentagon then contracts with domestic weapons manufacturers to replenish its stockpiles with funds appropriated by Congress.
The Defense Ministry has also awarded contracts to produce new weapons and ammunition for Ukraine under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative.
The United States has sent huge sums of money to keep the Ukrainian government afloat despite the economic disruption caused by the Russian invasion. The U.S. Agency for International Development has spent more than $13 billion on so-called direct budget support for Ukraine. This money, provided through the World Bank, has allowed Kiev to finance things like pensions, schools and other basic services during the economic strain of the war.
Why is there now a political dispute over aid?
Public support for Ukraine’s spending has declined over time. A CNN poll in August found that a majority of Americans opposed more aid to the country.
Ukraine’s surprisingly valiant defense against Russia and the subsequent evidence of Russia’s wartime atrocities brought American public opinion firmly to Kiev’s side. But after 20 months, the war appears to be entering a serious stalemate.
Several Republican presidential candidates — including former President Donald J. Trump — insist that funds for Ukraine would be better spent on domestic priorities like border control.
Disputes over U.S. spending priorities surrounding the budget deal in Congress last week brought the issue to a head.
Eric Schmitt contributed reporting.