The Nobel Peace Prize was just awarded to Narges Mohammadi, a long-time Iranian activist against mandatory veils and the death penalty. The awarding of the Nobel Prize to Madame Mohammadi will undoubtedly revive the struggle of opponents of the regime demanding freedom, equality and democracy. However, this Nobel Peace Prize is intended to draw attention to a new war that is likely to break out soon. With his easy conquest of Nagorno-Karabakh, the President of Azerbaijan is now threatening to invade at least the south of Armenia in order to establish a land corridor between his country and Turkey. The Iranian government has warned that this annexation could lead to it declaring war on Azerbaijan. Thus, the European Union may be forced to side with Iran despite the shame of its regime.
1) Who protects Armenia?
In theory, Armenia should be protected by Russia. However, with Russia involved in the war in Ukraine, the military resources to protect Armenia are lacking. This prompted Azerbaijan, an oil state with a very modern army, to invade Nagorno-Karabakh, an area almost entirely home to around 150,000 Armenians. Vladimir Putin didn’t lift a finger to protect his ally. He even stated that the annexation of Nagorno-Karabakh by Azerbaijan was inevitable. Undoubtedly a nice allusion to Russia’s occupation of part of Ukraine. In response to this lack of solidarity, the Armenian government decided to join the International Court of Justice, a court that accuses Putin of war crimes.
2) Who are Armenia’s allies?
Armenia, which believed it could count on Russia, therefore found itself deprived of Moscow’s protection. The countries of the European Union, especially France, are trying to help her militarily and economically. But the country that most fears a partial or complete conquest of the rest of Armenia is Iran. The land corridor that Azerbaijan wants to establish between itself and Turkey would deny Iran easy access to Russia and hinder its trade routes to Europe. The Iranian government therefore warned Azerbaijan against wanting to annex the southern regions of Armenia.
3) Why did the residents of Nagorno-Karabakh leave their territory?
Christian residents of Nagorno-Karabakh fled Azerbaijan fearing genocide by Sunni Muslim troops.
4) What is the position of the most important neighboring countries?
Turkey, which is in principle a member of NATO but committed genocide against its Armenian population in the early 20th century, is calling for the possible creation of a land corridor between it and Azerbaijan. Putin, who does not want to anger Turkey or Azerbaijan and no longer has the means to intervene militarily, is cleaning up the conflict. The expanding European Union wants to protect Armenia while taking care of Azerbaijan. That leaves Iran, which the Armenians can perhaps count on.
5) Is it certain that Iran would intervene?
It is unclear whether the Iranian regime would intervene directly in a war against Azerbaijan. In fact, the regime is being undermined from within and war could weaken it. However, Iranian leaders could see such a war as a great opportunity to divert the attention of their people.
