Unfavorable dark clouds have begun to cover the Western alliance supporting Ukraine. American economic aid to Kiev against the Russian aggressor is faltering, and the invaded country fears it will falter even more next year when presidential elections take place, in which Ukraine is already a campaign issue, and fears that the EU will step in Level of support stalls. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned in Granada these days during the European Political Community summit that the moment was “dangerous” and that Russian leader Vladimir Putin would try to exploit any division. “I hope that we remain united in these uncertain times,” Zelensky told more than 40 European leaders at the meeting hosted by Spain.
Kiev is seeking military aid for a war it admits will be protracted to liberate all Russian-occupied territories. The war front is frozen, with Ukraine’s Pyrrhic advances against well-protected Russian defenses that are better prepared and armed than when the invasion began in February 2022. Kiev’s partners in NATO and the EU reiterate that they will provide support as long as necessary, but Certain cracks have appeared in the coalition. And the longer the conflict lasts, the harder it will be to maintain the unity Zelensky speaks of, a senior community source recognizes.
The Ukrainian leader is worried about these dark clouds. You can already feel a change in the mood of some of your conversation partners. “I have this intuition, reading, listening to them and looking into their eyes when they tell me, ‘We will always be with you.'” And I see that he or she is no longer here, he or she is no longer with us,” he commented in an interview with The Economist a month ago. In his speech to the United Nations General Assembly on September 19, he criticized the fact that secret negotiations to end the war were already being conducted with his back to Ukraine.
The clearest alarm of this turmoil was the blockade of future government aid to Ukraine by the Republican Party in the US Congress. The White House has stressed that the items agreed before the veto guarantee supplies for months, but Congress’ decision, with support from Democrats and Republicans, to pass a temporary budget bill without the €6 billion package for Ukraine Preventing the closure of the US government was a blow to Ukrainian sentiment as it was confirmed that it will become increasingly difficult to obtain this support and because some of the Republican candidates for the US presidency in 2024 are in favor of abandoning the Rooster to the attacked country. “If we don’t get your help, we will lose the war,” Zelensky warned in Washington on September 21.
Nervousness is growing in Kiev and the EU about 2024. Ukraine will be one of the protagonists of the long US election campaign, and there is a risk that the Democratic Party will slow down its aid to Ukraine in order to prevent bloodshed against the Republican opposition. “Ukraine is already a top issue in the US election campaign and has, in a sense, become a political hostage. “Donald Trump’s supporters, those on the most radical right, will attack President Joe Biden for his support for Ukraine,” says Orysia Lutsevych, director of the Ukraine Forum at the Chatham House think tank, referring to the Republicans on the most radical right. hard. Community institutions and NATO allies fear the return of former President Trump next November.
Democrat Biden insists his administration will wait for Russia to leave Ukrainian territory, but there are already signs that the Republican trend is taking hold in public opinion. They have already expressed certain doubts about the use of the money. Money from Washington that, in order to be preserved, is linked to progress in the fight against corruption, transparency about the destination of investments and judicial independence as a condition for the provision of financing. Also those in Brussels, which are subject to strict scrutiny and are not only of crucial importance from a military point of view, but above all serve to keep the country afloat. “Military aid wins the battles, the economy wins the war,” says expert Lutchevich.
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Doubts about the strategy of the Ukrainian counteroffensive were also expressed from the Pentagon, the American military power, criticism that leaked to newspapers such as the Washington Post and the New York Times and was subsided over the months by the complaints of the Ukrainian authorities. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitro Kuleba even said in August that those who criticized the military strategy and its slow progress were “as if they were spitting in the soldiers’ faces.” “I would advise critics to keep their mouths shut. Let them come to Ukraine to free up a square centimeter,” Kuleba concluded.
Ukraine has become significantly more lax in its claims towards the West in recent weeks, knowing full well that the issue has become sensitive. Zelensky is increasingly cautious about maintaining crucial EU support. Not just economically and militarily. Ukraine must anchor itself in the EU through its imminent entry into the community club. Something that would not only be a symbolic movement, but would also have a high economic content: internal market, cohesion fund, aid. Brussels has promised to maintain support and is drawing up “security commitments” so that support can be maintained over a longer period. However, it is not easy to enforce the new packages for Ukraine.
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The reality is more complex than public declarations of good intentions, summarizes Timofii Milovanov, president of the Kiev School of Economics and former economy minister: “The US Congress has sent a clear message: ‘We do not have the votes to support Ukraine’.” . “The credibility of the message that the United States will support Ukraine for as long as necessary is in question or has disappeared.” “The implications of this are obvious,” adds Milovanov in an analysis published on his social networks became. “Russia will benefit because either Ukraine’s ability to defend itself will be weakened or there will be more pressure on it to agree to negotiate Russian terms for a de facto surrender.”
Milovanov points out that it is time for the EU to respond and increase its support. But cracks have also appeared on the European flank. The emergence in the political landscape of the Slovak pro-Russian ultra-nationalist Robert Fico, who received the electoral majority although he will need support for the government, is a cause for concern in Brussels, several community sources admit. Together with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who is also close to Moscow’s positions, the Hungarian and Slovak governments can form a front that will put obstacles in the way of EU support for Ukraine. Since March, Orbán has blocked 500 million euros for the European Peace Fund, which the bloc uses mainly for military aid to Kiev.
In addition, the Hungarian is one of the voices that have expressed the greatest reluctance towards Ukraine’s accession to the EU. It’s not the only one. The future accession and economic situation of Ukraine are creating certain tensions in the countries that will lose the European cohesion funds and turn from recipients to contributors. What is happening to Ukrainian grain entering the EU without tariffs and which Poland, Hungary and Slovakia are blocking because they say it harms their farmers is just a foretaste of what can happen if Kiev begins to become more involved in the single market to contribute. And even more so when it comes to agricultural policy.
Polish President Andrzej Duda has even said that aid to Ukraine is a danger amid the Ukrainian grain controversy. “It’s like we’re dealing with a drowning person. “Anyone who has ever tried to help a drowning person knows that it is extremely dangerous because it can drag you into the depths,” started the ultra-conservative politician (and then lowered his tone), who is embarking on a complicated election campaign , which is about drowning. He also dealt with the Ukraine issue.
The community club needs a major renovation before the major expansion. In addition, Brussels is currently examining the design of a gradual integration process. All of this could calm the mood of those who see economic reservations about Ukraine’s admission. But the threat of Slovakia and Hungary vetoing Ukraine’s EU accession is “very serious,” warns Andrzej Sadecki, director of the Central Europe department at the Center for Eastern European Studies – an academic group based in Warsaw. Especially because it is, especially for Orbán, a blackmail tool to negotiate other community issues.
Kyiv is trying to reduce all tensions. Deputy Prime Minister for Euro-Atlantic Integration Olha Stefanishyna said in an interview this week that her government had taken steps to “de-escalate” and “depoliticize” the grain crisis. And that their pulse will not tremble when it comes to taking the necessary measures to maintain Washington’s support: “Whatever Ukraine needs to do to maintain support, it will do.”
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