The leader of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, Alice Weidel, had every reason to smile in front of the cameras and say she was “very proud” after the polls closed on Sunday, October 8th in Bavaria and Hesse. In these two states, which account for almost a quarter of the country’s population, the AfD is rising to unprecedented levels, while the parties in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition are clearly in decline.
According to preliminary results, the AfD would get 16 percent of the vote in Bavaria, almost six points more than in the last state election in 2018. In Hesse it would get 18 percent, five points more than there years ago. These results confirm the rise of the far right across the country as reported by pollsters. If parliamentary elections were to take place in Germany today, the AfD would be at over 20%, according to current surveys. In 2021 he received 10.3% of the vote. The only downer for the AfD on Sunday: the narrow defeat of its candidate in Bitterfeld-Wolfen (Saxony-Anhalt), where the conservative outgoing mayor (CDU) won the second round of a partial local election.
The big loser in Sunday’s election is Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD). In Hesse, where his list leader was Federal Interior Minister Nancy Faeser, he would reach 15% of the vote, almost five points less than in 2018. In Bavaria he would barely get above 8%, almost two points less than five years ago. The Greens, Olaf Scholz’s main partner, were also sanctioned. In Bavaria they would come to a little less than 15% (-2.8). In Hesse, where they would also reach 15% of the vote, their decline is more noticeable, as it would be around 5 points compared to 2018.
For the Liberal Democrats (FDP), the third component of Olaf Scholz’s “traffic light” coalition, the setback is even more bitter. With less than 3% in Bavaria (-2.5 points), they do not reach the 5% necessary for representation in the state parliament. According to preliminary results, they face a similar fate in Hesse with 4.9% of the vote (-2 points). For Finance Minister Christian Lindner’s party, October 8th is another dark day: Since coming into government alongside the SPD and the Greens at the end of 2021, the FDP has suffered one defeat after another in the state elections. This leads it to constantly harden its positions – especially on the immigration issue – causing severe unrest within the government.
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