There will be those who interpret Hamas’ attack on Israel on Saturday as a reaction to Israel’s cruel policies towards the Palestinians in the face of the indifference of the rest of the world. Aside from the fact that the killing of civilians is never justified, the scale and timing of the spectacular and surprise operation point to a geopolitical factor of crucial importance: the eventual establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Such a possibility is a headache for Iran and its allies in the resistance axis, including Hamas.
Few know at what point the talks/negotiations between Tel Aviv and Riyadh are at. “The United States is doing everything possible and more to encourage the Kingdom to take this step,” a former senior Saudi official confided to this journalist a few days ago. According to leaks published in Anglo-Saxon media, the hook is a defense pact that would raise the United States’ alliance with Saudi Arabia to the same level as with Israel (“major non-NATO ally” or major non-NATO ally). , over Saudi Arabia’s stated desire for a civilian nuclear program that includes uranium enrichment.
Israel has always sought the recognition of its Arab neighbors and achieved an important diplomatic success with the Abraham Accords (2020) and the subsequent normalization of relations with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco. Behind the Saudi interest is its historical distrust of Iran, which it blamed for attacks on its oil facilities in 2019 and which the recent reopening of embassies has not alleviated. The limited depth of these relationships was highlighted last Monday when Saudi football team Al Ittihad traveled to Isfahan to play Iran’s Sepahan in an Asian Champions League match. The visitors left the stadium without playing when they discovered in the exit tunnel to the field three busts of Qasem Soleimani, a Revolutionary Guard general assassinated by the United States in Baghdad and considered a hero by the Iranians and a terrorist by the Saudis. For Riyadh it was a provocation.
Nevertheless, the step towards establishing relations with Israel is not easy. Not even for the kingdom’s strongman, Crown Prince Mohamed Bin Salmán, who has shown signs of great boldness since coming to power. “It would be his riskiest decision, especially under the current administration [israelí] ultra,” assures the above-mentioned source, in the absence of minimal concessions to the Palestinians. In the opinion of this qualified observer, the heir’s recent comments that the agreement with Israel is “getting closer every day” are a way to keep the door open while weighing the cost-benefit ratio.
In any case, Hamas’ attack, a blow to this project, is not a response to Prince Mohammed’s last words. Its complexity indicates long prior planning. And the support of its most important ally, Iran, which has not even bothered to hide its sympathies on the matter. “We support Al Aqsa’s commendable assault operations,” Gen. Rahim Safavi, top military adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, quickly said. If there was any doubt.
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