The previously notoriously failed investiture appears to have brought little benefit to Alberto Núñez Feijóo, as shown by the results of the October Barometer by EL PAÍS and Cadena SER. Among those surveyed by the Population Institute, 40dB. The majority believe that the PP president emerged weakened: almost 46%, compared to 20.5% who see him strengthened after the parliamentary battle. The poll, carried out immediately after the debate and in the heat of public controversy over the possible amnesty for those accused of the Catalan independence process, shows that almost half of citizens support a repeat election.
The conclusions of demoscopy are often unclear, as evidenced by the latest 40 dB barometer, whose internal data can be viewed here. The figures from the sociological study indicate a weak assessment by citizens of Feijóo’s inauguration and his leadership at the head of the PP. But at the same time, since the last general elections, they place the Popular Party in an ascending line in voting intention, so that it could now achieve an absolute majority by merging its hypothetical seats with those of Vox, UPN and Coalión Canaria.
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As for Feijóo’s investiture debate, only PP voters believe their leader emerged stronger, and yet he receives discrete numbers among the population supporting him. The number of voters who approve of Feijóo’s political actions by presenting his presidential candidacy does not reach half. One in five believe that the parliamentary trance has weakened them and one in four believe that it has not affected them, for better or worse. Opinions are very divided among Vox supporters: 34.6% believe that the investiture was good for Feijóo and 31.8% lean towards the opposite. The majority of leftists feel that the debate was counterproductive for the Galician politician.
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After the popular candidate failed in his investiture attempt, those surveyed are in the majority with 40 dB. (46%) who believe that Pedro Sánchez will manage to remake his government with the support of peripheral nationalism, while a third believe that everything will lead to a return to the ballot box. But it is one thing what citizens imagine and another thing is what they desire. And in this regard, the opinion is in favor of a repeat of the elections, which more than 48% opt for. Sánchez’s pacts with nationalists and independence supporters convince around 30%. And 10% want the PP to be the one to support the socialist leader to continue in La Moncloa.
There is a notable difference of opinion among PSOE voters themselves. Those who opt for the government formula that the Socialists are currently negotiating do not reach half, while a quarter would prefer a new election call and 19% that the incumbent president seeks the support of the PP. The events of the last month seem to have left their mark on those who voted for the election of Pedro Sánchez on January 23rd. The change in mood compared to September is illustrated by indisputable figures: those in favor of an agreement with Catalan and Basque nationalism have fallen by nine points (from 57.8% to 48.8%), and the number of those in favor of new elections , decreases from 9% to 25%.
At almost 70%, Sumar’s supporters are the most convinced of the pacts with the Catalan and Basque nationalists. But in this part of the population that identifies with Yolanda Díaz’s platform, there is a non-negligible part, namely almost 17%, who also favor voting again and even 10% who would prefer the government by Sánchez in the PP to support peripheral nationalism.
On the right, the option of calling the elections again has overwhelming support. 85% of respondents who say they voted for the PP and 87% of those who supported Vox subscribe to it.
Shadow on leadership
The barometer comes to contradictory results for the PP. On the one hand, he points out that his commitment to a new election call has an impact on the population and increases their election expectations. And on the other hand, it casts new shadows on the strength of Feijóo’s leadership. Apart from the discreet citizen assessment of the results of the investiture, 40dB. He also inquired about the popularity of the Galician politician and two other prominent leaders of his party, Madrid President Isabel Díaz Ayuso and Andalusian President Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla. Ayuso is the one who attracts the most likes from the general population, and even Moreno Bonilla narrowly surpasses Feijóo. 38.6% of respondents choose the Madrid one, 31.2% the Andalusian one and 30.2% the Galician one.
The former Xunta president takes the lead among PP voters in a tight battle with Ayuso: 45.3% versus almost 44%. Moreno is far behind at 11%. The Madrid president receives enormous support among Vox supporters (68%), and the Andalusian is most appreciated by the left (56% of those who say they supported Sumar and 46% of those from the PSOE prefer him to the by the others). Belén Barreiro, director of 40dB., highlights another big difference between the three leaders by age group: “Feijóo stands out among the oldest, Moreno Bonilla prevails among the middle-aged and Díaz Ayuso sweeps among the younger,” he assures.
The Demographic Institute researchers asked respondents to choose which of the three popular leaders had the best characteristics based on a given list of 12 attributes. Feijóo wins in terms of experience, preparation and ability to represent different areas (there is almost a tie between the three in this final section). Moreno is considered the most sincere, honest and moderate (almost on a par with Feijóo here). And Ayuso dominates in terms of leadership (clearly, almost half compared to a quarter, which points to the former Galician president), intelligence, ability to inspire, proximity to the people, vision of the future and better dialogue with Vox.
However, among PP voters, Feijóo stands out in eight of these categories and Ayuso in only four. In the overall ranking of the leaders from 0 to 10, Feijóo scores an 8 among his own voters, just a tenth more than Ayuso and ahead of Moreno’s 6.9. In the general population, the grades of the three are very close: 4.5 for those from Madrid, 4.2 for those from Galicia and 4.1 for those from Andalusia.
Data sheet:
Scope: Spain. Population: General population residing in Spain (except Ceuta and Melilla) aged 18 and over and with the right to vote. Sample size: 2,000 interviews. Quotas by gender, age, autonomous community, living space size and social class. Process: Online interview (CAWI). Sampling error: ±2.2% (for 95% confidence). Completion date: September 29 to October 2, 2023.