State elections: One defeat, three reactions: Traffic light coalition seeks a way out of discouragement

After the defeats in Bavaria and Hesse, the traffic lights announce the consequences. They think of different answers. The coalition faces a stress test.

October 9, 2023 | by Martin Greive, Jan Hildebrand, Silke Kersting and Dietmar Neuerer

Florian von Brunnen, Nancy Faeser, Olaf Scholz, Kevin Kühnert, Saskia Esken © Getty Images

Berlin Olaf Scholz (SPD) only appeared briefly. Before the SPD executive board meeting at Willy Brandt House, a demonstratively good-natured chancellor welcomed the party chairmen Saskia Esken and Lars Klingbeil as well as the SPD’s top punished candidates in Hesse and Bavaria, Nancy Faeser and Florian von Brunn, in Monday morning.

However, the election results in Bavaria and Hesse will still worry Scholz. The defeats are so painful for the three traffic light parties that they will have an impact on the coalition. In Hesse, the SPD, the Greens and the FDP together only have 35%, and in Bavaria only 25%.

“If all coalition parties lose in both federal states, there is also a message for Berlin,” said SPD General Secretary Kevin Kühnert. FDP leader Christian Lindner said the coalition had to “work together” in an “in-depth discussion”. One possible opportunity: the coalition committee on October 20th.

Monday’s statements already indicate that the SPD, the Greens and the FDP obviously want to draw different conclusions from the electoral defeats. This means the traffic light alliance will likely face its next stress test.

Lindner: “Critically examine the work of government”

“Our task now is to critically examine the work of our government,” said FDP leader Lindner. The loss of votes for the Liberals was smaller than for the SPD and the Greens. But the consequences are more serious: after Lower Saxony and Berlin, the FDP has now been expelled from the third state parliament in Bavaria, and in Hesse it has barely managed to re-enter.

In his analysis, Lindner listed four issues that he considers important to voters: concerns about the economic recession, limiting migration, the burden of climate and energy policy and bureaucracy. “The FDP failed to benefit, although these are our problems,” said Lindner. His explanation: “The traffic light is evaluated as a whole”.

Christian Lindner with top candidates Martin Hagen (Bavaria) and Stefan Naas (Hesse) © dpa

The consequence for the FDP leader is therefore obvious: the traffic light coalition must realign its policies. Among other things, Lindner called for an “asylum turnaround.” However, this will probably be difficult for the Greens. The situation is similar with “climate protection with a sense of proportion”, which the FDP president is now promoting.

Greens talk about their results

While the SPD and FDP admitted their defeats, the Greens tried to put the loss of votes into perspective. Tarek Al-Wazir, deputy head of the Hessian government, explained that they expected a better result, but with 14.8 percent, the Hessian Greens achieved the second best result in the state.

The Hessian Greens’ earlier hope of being able to appoint Prime Minister was almost forgotten. The Greens are now the fourth strongest force in Hesse, after the CDU, AfD and SPD.

The Greens in Bavaria argued equally defiantly, receiving 14.4 percent of the vote, down 3.2 percentage points compared to 2018. Ludwig Hartmann, the Green Party’s lead candidate, spoke of a “stable result.”

The Greens faced a lot of headwinds, Hartmann said. And he still achieved the second best result in history. Self-critical words are rare among the Greens – the Greens are more likely to work for their coalition partner, the FDP.

Before the elections, FDP Secretary General Bijan Djir-Sarai described the Greens as a “security risk for our country” in view of the migration debate. This was met with strong criticism from the Eco Party.

Shrill sounds at traffic lights

The good results of traffic lights are sometimes covered by shrill tones, said Green Party leader Omid Nouripour, explaining the results of the coalition parties. “This has to stop, no party at the traffic lights has anything to do with this,” he said.

The SPD also attributes the poor performance of the traffic light parties to an image problem for the coalition. The people do not want arguments from the government, but rather guidance and security, said Esken. “The traffic light gave a lot of answers, but it also gave a lot of answers in arguments,” admitted Esken. The government coalition must “do better”.

Keep it up, just with less argument – ​​will this be enough to stop the decline of traffic light parties in elections? It’s not just the FDP that has doubts, there are also growing voices in the SPD who believe that repositioning is necessary.

Change in asylum policy?

The SPD parliamentary group said the chancellor was now wanted. Solutions must now be found in asylum and economic policy. There has been too much hesitation, especially when it comes to asylum policy. The SPD’s expectation now is to find a solution at the next Prime Ministers’ Conference. “The prime ministers will not let this go,” they said.

Scholz sees the state heads of government, not CDU President Friedrich Merz, as his interlocutors. He will meet with them in Berlin on November 6 to talk about migration policy. Until then, he will have to go on the offensive on the issue that played an important role in the election campaign.

Given the successes of the AfD, Scholz and the SPD leadership will likely think in a similar direction to Lindner when it comes to migration policy. This could pose problems for the Greens. Many deputies and party leaders have so far rejected strong restrictions on migration.

Omid Nouripour and Tarek Al-Wazir © dpa

According to the SPD parliamentary group, something also needs to be done in economic policy. Election surveys showed that weak economic development had affected voters even more than asylum policy. The group’s position is clear: an industrial electricity price is urgently needed to protect the industry from decline.

“He is determined to continue working with Nancy Faeser as Federal Minister of the Interior in the cabinet,” said government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit. Scholz advised Faeser to run for public office in Hesse and made an agreement with her that she would remain Minister of the Interior in the event of an electoral defeat.