A gentle breeze in a former workplace – Chancellor Scholz invited people to the Franco-German cabinet meeting in Hamburg. In a relaxed Nordic atmosphere, it will also address serious topics.
In Paris, people consider it a positive sign that the Chancellor has invited people to come to Hamburg. Where he himself worked for a long time. A joint visit to the Airbus factory, a tour of the port, fish sandwiches – the Chancellor tries the Hanseatic approach. Because Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron did not start well.
On the occasion of the 60th anniversary of the Élysée Treaty, they tried to reverse the situation – with “food diplomacy”: Macron invited Scholz to his favorite restaurant, “La Rotonde”, in Paris, in January. He returned the favor with an invitation to dinner in Potsdam in the summer.
Despite the culinary relaxation exercises, it is still difficult to assess whether Macron and Scholz have now found a personal connection with each other. The temperaments seem to be very different. But there are also real points of contention between Germany and France in terms of content.
Difficult weapons projects
In Hamburg, Airbus will present itself in the splendor of a successful Franco-German project. What we have in common will be emphasized. Hamburg-Finkenwerder deals with successful Franco-German cooperation in civil aviation. In the military sector, however, there are regularly points of friction. More recently, German-French-Spanish company Airbus and French defense company Dassault have been locked in an open dispute over FCAS, the fighter system of the future.
Things were equally turbulent with the Franco-German main battle tank of the future, or MGCS for short. Here, too, the German and French manufacturers involved did not particularly cooperate.
If you ask the members of the Bundestag in Berlin, you will hear, at least secretly, that some see no urgent reason to invest billions in a German-French tank project of the future. The Bundeswehr has relied on the successful Leopard battle tank for decades, which is constantly being modified. France depends on Leclerc, who, however, is getting older. The Great Nation – unlike Germany – needs a successor model.
However, it doesn’t seem to bother Berlin much that the Main Ground Combat System (MGCS) may only appear in 2045, instead of 2035. In December 2023, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said in a meeting with his counterpart Frenchman Sébastien Lecornu in Évreux, who wanted to at least reach agreement on who will be responsible for which parts of the tank project.
There is also disagreement between Germany and France regarding the Future Combat Air System (FCAS).
German rapprochement with the USA
President Macron and former Chancellor Merkel started projects like MGCS or FCAS in 2017. Under the impression of a US President named Trump, dependence on the US should be reduced. This was called “strategic autonomy” back then.
Six years later, disillusionment set in on both sides of the Rhine. The selfishness of national and industrial policy dominates. Furthermore, people in France are paying close attention to the fact that, since Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine, Germany has increasingly sought to close ranks with the US. And there and also in Israel, “special resources” ordered crucial weapons systems such as F-35 fighter jets, heavy transport helicopters and the Arrow missile defense system.
This results in tensions in Franco-German relations, says Jacob Ross, France expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). At the same time, Germany regularly emphasizes that it wants stronger cooperation with France.
The French see nuclear deterrence as threatened
In addition to the difficult weapons projects, there are also strategic issues that divide the two countries. For example, with the European air defense system, European Skyshield, announced by the Chancellor in Prague in 2022. While Germany is picking up the pace here, Poland and the French nuclear power are not involved.
The French are not just concerned about industrial policy, says DGAP’s Ross. They also see Germany’s European Sky Shield initiative as a threat to their nuclear deterrent. According to the French interpretation, the Arrow missile defense could be seen by the Russians as a threat and trigger an arms spiral. Ultimately, it could also be used to intercept Russian nuclear missiles at an altitude of up to 100 kilometers. In Paris, the position is also stubbornly maintained that they were surprised by Scholz’s European Sky Shield initiative and that there was no close coordination.
This shows once again, from defense and foreign policy to energy policy: the Franco-German engine is not working well. In Hamburg it is urgently time for political rapprochement in a friendly atmosphere.