The negotiating channel between the government of Joe Biden and that of Nicolás Maduro has evolved in recent weeks. There is a possibility of further progress between them if Maduro makes modest concessions to the Venezuelan opposition while benefiting from an easing of sectoral sanctions imposed by the United States on the oil industry.
On October 5, the governments of both countries announced that they had reached an agreement to directly deport Venezuelans who enter the United States illegally.
It was subsequently revealed that the Maduro government and the Unity Platform, through the mediation of the United States, are preparing to reactivate the negotiating table in Mexico with an agenda focused on the electoral process. The Bolivarian leader would also have committed to the release of around 100 political prisoners.
The Venezuelan opposition is reaching this moment under tenuous conditions. He has not yet developed a unified strategy to defeat Maduro, but the international context has also changed. We have moved from an international community that wanted to support the reconstruction of Venezuelan democracy to a climate of normalization of authoritarianism, due in part to the failure of the diplomatic siege.
Both the European Union and the United States are eager to rebuild their relations with Venezuela. This also includes giving some legitimacy to the Maduro government, which they have not recognized as president since his re-election in May 2018.
Héctor Briceño, a researcher at the University of Rostock, explains that there is a consensus on the electoral path as the ideal scenario to resolve the Venezuela crisis and an interest on the part of the United States and the European Union in improving relations with Maduro in the global context of the energy market and because countries are dealing with the consequences of the Venezuelan crisis on their own territory. An example of this is the influx of migrants.
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Although progress in this normalization has been small, one constant has been observed since March 2022, when a high-level delegation led by Juan González, special assistant to President Biden and principal director of the National Security Council for the Western Hemisphere, met in Caracas with Maduro and his team.
From that moment until today, there have been gestures of understanding such as prisoner exchanges, allowing oil company Chevron to operate with fewer obstacles, lifting sanctions against a relative of Maduro’s wife, a meeting this year in Qatar, and the recent agreement to deport Venezuelans from North American territory.
In addition, it was reported last July that the EU and Venezuela, with the help of Eni Spa and Repsol, were exploring a $1.5 billion deal to capture the South American country’s methane emissions and export them to EU countries. This is only possible because conditions with the United States have improved.
To continue on this path, Maduro doesn’t actually have to make any major concessions. What it offers is not to build towards a worse scenario in which its authoritarian government looks more like Nicaragua. In fact, the Maduro leadership and the Venezuelan business elite are currently experiencing something of a honeymoon.
The Venezuelan opposition, organized in the unity platform, currently resembles a peeping Tom. On the one hand, the Maduro and Biden governments are conducting a dialogue based on their own interests. Maduro needs to gain international recognition, needs funds for public spending and an improvement in the living conditions of Venezuelans. This is how you unite your voters. Biden is heading towards his re-election campaign. In addition to the global aspect of the fuel market, its unpredictable immigration policy will be one of the weaknesses that its opponents can exploit. Added to this is the damage resulting from the allegations against Senator Bob Menéndez of alleged bribery and corruption.
On the other hand, the consequences of the withdrawal of Henrique Capriles Radonski from the primaries remain to be seen, especially in the final phase of this process, whose D-Day will take place on October 22nd. The former candidate argues that the disqualification makes it difficult to pursue a strategy for real change in the country. Like him, the favorite to win the internal race, María Corina Machado, is also disqualified.
This leaves the opposition tackling two crises at once. That is, to advance a concrete act with the Maduro government to achieve minimal electoral guarantees while managing Capriles Radonski’s exit from the race.
However, there is an opportunity for change. It takes a lot of political genius to take advantage of this. The opposition political actors, especially the majority parties or the most influential parties, must find a formula to reach presidential elections with a real possibility of victory. Building this road is quite a challenge.
The last time the Venezuelan opposition won a major electoral victory was in 2015, when it won the parliamentary elections and achieved a qualified two-thirds majority. This victory was quickly neutralized by the Maduro government, which halted the incorporation of three opposition MPs, citing alleged fraud that was never proven, let alone remedied. Then the opposition began a journey that led to the formation of the so-called interim government and the ignorance of Maduro in more than 60 countries.
Of the many lessons from this experience, two are fundamental to any attempt in the future: first, unity is fundamental to electoral opposition strategy; and the second is a reminder that when Chavismo’s survival is threatened, it can do everything to distort the decision of the majority.
For Héctor Briceño, there are signs that the foundations are being rebuilt in bilateral relations between the USA and Venezuela. And in the event that Maduro in 2024 repeats an electoral scenario with minimal conditions like in 2018, that would be enough for the international community to look the other way in order to normalize the situation.
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