Hurricane Lidia is expected to make landfall on Mexico’s Pacific coast on Tuesday evening as a major hurricane, potentially threatening a stretch of the central west coast that includes Puerto Vallarta, a resort town and popular tourist destination in the Mexican state of Jalisco. Its expected arrival follows Tropical Storm Max, which struck Mexico’s southern coast several hundred miles from Jalisco on Monday before weakening.
Forecasts developed in the hours before Lidia’s expected arrival put the storm system about 115 miles southwest of Puerto Vallarta at 3 p.m. Central Time, about 50 miles closer to the coast than three hours earlier, according to the National Hurricane Center. Lidia had maximum sustained winds of 125 miles per hour and stronger gusts, classifying it as a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale, which assesses potential property damage.
Lidia had strengthened throughout the day and had been increasing in strength since 9 a.m. CT, when it brought maximum sustained winds of 100 mph and was classified as a Category 2 hurricane at the time. A storm falls into Category 2 if its maximum sustained wind speeds are stronger than 155 km/h but do not exceed 177 km/h, and it moves into Category 3 if wind speeds are between 177 km/h and 200 km/h lay. Any hurricane that is classified as a Category 3 storm or higher – the system assigns Category 5 storms – is considered a major hurricane.
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hurricane #Lidia Advisory 30A: Lidia becomes a major hurricane as it approaches west-central Mexico. Dangerous hurricane-force winds and flooding rains are expected to begin later this afternoon. https://t.co/Oy8uoeSibM
— NHC Eastern Pacific (@NHC_Pacific) October 10, 2023
But Lidia was forecast to potentially strengthen as it approaches Mexico’s west-central coast, threatening to bring dangerous hurricane-force winds, rain and flooding that could begin as early as Tuesday afternoon, the hurricane center said in a warning. When the storm makes landfall in the evening, it could reach the coast as an “extremely dangerous” Category 4 hurricane.
Meteorologists predict Lidia will weaken quickly as it moves inland, but the hurricane is also expected to bring up to 30 cm of rain to parts of the Mexican states of Nayarit, Sinaloa and coastal Jalisco, likely leading to flash floods and urban flooding and possible mudslides in higher coastal areas.
“Aside from the strong winds, Lidia can produce a lot of rain,” Albert Martinez, meteorologist at The Weather Channel en Español, told CBS News in an email. “This large amount of rain may result in flash flooding along the Sierra Madre and some mudslides in higher elevations. It is important to avoid streams and rivers as they can grow very quickly.”
Martinez said Lidia was likely to make landfall in the evening as a strong Category 3 storm along Mexico’s west coast between Nayarit and Jalisco, noting that Puerto Vallarta would experience heavy rainfall and flooding in addition to strong hurricane-force winds.
Hurricane-force winds extend up to 30 miles from the center of the storm, and tropical-storm-force winds can extend up to 125 miles, Martinez added, so there will be “a lot of rain” across a wide swath of land between Nayarit and Colima. . Flooding and strong winds.”
Hurricane Lidia continued to gain strength Tuesday as it headed toward the Mexican resort of Puerto Vallarta. National Hurricane Center/NOAA
“The hurricane is expected to reach the warning area during the afternoon. Preparations to protect life and property should be completed expeditiously,” the National Hurricane Center wrote in its 12 p.m. bulletin. “Tropical storm conditions are expected in tropical storm warning areas beginning this afternoon.”
The hurricane center warned that “a dangerous storm surge is expected to cause significant coastal flooding near and south of where the center makes landfall,” noting that the surge would produce “large and dangerous waves” near the coast will accompany. Life-threatening surf and rip currents associated with Lidia are also expected on the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula.
The Mexican government had already expanded its hurricane warning to a larger stretch of the Pacific coast as of 9 a.m. CT, stretching about 350 miles to Manzanillo in Colima state and El Roblito in Nayarit, which borders the coastal city of Puerto Vallarta. Tropical storm warnings were also in effect for parts of Baja California Sur, including Punta San Telmo, which extended south from Manzanillo to Punta San Telmo.
A hurricane warning was also in effect for the Islas Marías, an archipelago about 60 miles off Nayarit and 200 miles southeast of the tip of Baja California. Forecasts suggested Lidia would approach the island chain on Tuesday as it continued to approach land, although an exact location for the hurricane’s expected landfall was not announced. Conditions are expected to “deteriorate throughout the day” around the archipelago and the surrounding region of Mexico’s west-central coast, forecasters said.
As Lidia accelerated its path toward land early Tuesday, the hurricane center expected the storm to continue to strengthen as its development over the Pacific coincided with “very warm” sea surface temperatures as well as an upper-level wind pattern that played a role can play a role in the dynamics of a hurricane.
Although parts of Lidia’s potential landfall area are not densely populated, the hurricane’s track has raised concerns about Puerto Vallarta, a city known for its beaches and which has gained international popularity as a hub for tourism and a popular spring break vacation destination for Americans . The U.S. State Department urged travelers to reconsider their visit to Puerto Vallarta earlier this year, saying “violent crime and gang activity are commonplace.” Not long after, the Treasury Department announced sanctions against members or associates of the Jalisco drug cartel who allegedly targeted older Americans in a timeshare scam centered on Puerto Vallarta.
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