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Burgundy’s vintages are under threat as rising global temperatures and unsettled weather destroy the region’s valuable harvest. (September 20) (AP video by Cassandra Allwood)
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The issue of climate change is becoming increasingly critical: warmer and drier weather could threaten beer supplies.
That’s because the harvest of hops, a key ingredient in beer production, could decline by up to 18% in Europe by 2050 – and the harvested hops may contain fewer of the substances that give some beers their distinctive character, according to a study published on Tuesday in Nature Communications.
This predicted decline in hop yield and alpha (acid) content “requires immediate adaptive measures to stabilize an ever-growing global sector,” the researchers from Europe and the United Kingdom wrote
The researchers examined hop cultivation in Germany, the Czech Republic and Slovenia between 1971 and 1994 and 1995 and 2018. They found that rising temperatures pushed back the start of the hop growing season by 13 days from 1970 to 2018, wrote the study’s lead author, Martin Mozny of the Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences.
Since 1995, average annual hop yields have declined by up to 19% in most of Europe, while they have remained stable in the Czech Republic. Earlier maturation also led to a drop in the average level of acids in hops that give beers their bitterness – between 10.5% in Zatce in the Czech Republic and 34.8% in Celje in Slovenia, researchers said.
“Increasingly frequent droughts and heatwaves are having a negative impact on yields and alpha content in all hop-growing regions in the EU. The only exception is Zatec/Saaz in the Czech Republic, where yields are increasing slightly thanks to the adjustment measures already taken.” Mozny told USA TODAY in an email exchange. “Unfortunately, simulations of future developments suggest a further decline in both returns and alpha.”
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The researchers simulated future harvests and climate conditions and estimated that hop yields would be 4 to 18 percent lower by 2050 and that the acids in hops needed for bitterness would continue to decline by 20 to 31 percent. “Aromatic hops from traditional European regions are the ‘spice’ that gives the best premium and craft beers around the world the right taste and aroma,” said Mozny. “It is exported to all countries that produce better beers.”
Could a decline in hop production lead to a beer shortage?
Hop production in the U.S. is facing similar situations, Mozny said. But beer lovers in the U.S. don’t have to start hoarding their favorite drinks just yet.
U.S. hop producers have developed resilient hop varieties and continued to increase hop production, said Chuck Skypeck, director of technical brewing projects at the Brewers Association, a trade group that represents nearly 6,000 U.S. breweries, most of which source the majority of their hops from U.S. manufacturers.
Similar work is also being carried out in Europe, including at the Hop Research Center in Hüll in Germany, he said. “There is a lot of progress in this regard,” Skypeck said. “I’m not downplaying the challenges because they are there.”
Still, the report’s conclusion “seems a little alarming to me,” Skypeck said. “There are some alarming things in there and I’m not saying I don’t believe them. But I think people are already working on these things.”
Craft breweries also rely more on aromatic hops – used for India pale ales and hazy IPAs – than the styles examined in this report. This year’s hop harvest in the U.S. is expected to approach recent record yields, even as hop producers shut down some fields because of massive backlogs, Skypeck said.
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But climate change is really on the minds of brewers around the world. Last month, Atsushi Katsuki, president and CEO of Japanese beer group Asahi Group Holdings, told the Financial Times that global warming could lead to reductions in barley yields and hop quality over the next three decades, leading to a beer shortage. In addition to Asahi, the company also produces Grolsch, Fuller’s and Peroni beers as well as Pilsner Urquell beers.
“Although beer consumption could increase in hotter weather and become an opportunity for us, climate change will have serious impacts,” he said. “There is a risk that we won’t be able to produce enough beer.”
Anheuser-Busch InBev, maker of Budweiser and Bud Light, and Danish beer maker Carlsberg have invested in drought-resistant barley varieties grown in Africa to hedge against the effects of climate change, Fortune reported.
“One of the secondary motives of this study was to illustrate how important climate change could be even to those who believe it doesn’t matter,” study co-author Miroslav Trnka told CNN. “We really see changes impacting things.” We care about things like the taste of beer. Climate change may actually have an impact on this, or at least impact on raw materials that are critical to production.”
Brewers also face other issues related to water quality and quantity, Skypeck said. “Yes, we face a lot of challenges,” he said, “but there are really smart people working on these problems.”
Follow Mike Snider on X and Threads: @mikesnider & mikegsnider.
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