This is my favorite prediction column that I write each year.
Like most hockey writers, I produce more than my share of predictions. Here’s my annual league-wide look, which went live yesterday and can be found here. I was part of The Athletic’s staff-wide selection of individual awards and team predictions. I chose podcasts and radio hits, probably in my sleep. It’s part of the preparation for opening night and it’s fun.
But once a year I go overboard by making far too specific predictions for each team. Anyone can predict that a player will reach a milestone or break a record; I want to tell you the exact date it will happen. Will there be a player in contention for an award? Not good enough. They deserve to know exactly where they will end up. On the way we also dig out a few strange little things from the statistics book. But the key is that we don’t use words like “about”, “about” or “close enough” in these areas.
We don’t use words like “right” very often either, but that’s half the appeal. And if I can make one of those predictions — for example, the exact game in which Joel Hanley would score his first goal of the regular season, or the exact night that the Kings would receive their only disciplinary penalty of the season — that is it Of course I will never keep my mouth shut about it.
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The offseason lasted forever and real hockey is on. Let’s get weirdly specific.
I’ve already named Devon Levi as one of my most interesting players this season, as much of Buffalo’s optimism rests on his 21-year-old shoulders. It’s a risk for the organization, but I think it’ll pay off – especially if he’s the only player other than Connor Bedard to receive top votes in this season’s Calder ballot.
Juraj Slafkovský didn’t do much to look like a worthy No. 1 last season, but Habs fans will remind you that’s not unusual; To give just one example, Jack Hughes wasn’t much better as a rookie, and he was fine. I won’t put Slafkovský in the same category any time soon, but he will score his first goal of the season against Hughes and the Devils.
Speaking of who…
New Jersey Devils
I’ve already included this in our staff picks, so I’m going to raise my flag here publicly: Jack Hughes wins the Hart Trophy. And since that might not be oddly specific enough, I’ll go one step further and say that he manages the rare feat of doing it without also winning the Ted Lindsay.
With a new GM, a new coach and a revamped roster, the Predators could be headed for big time…or a big drop in the standings. Longtime fans of oddly specific predictions know what this means: The Predators are the pick this season because they’re the team that annoys everyone by finishing with the exact same number of points as they did last season.
All eyes are on Alexander Ovechkin, who is 72 goals shy of Wayne Gretzky’s record. He will get exactly half of that this season.
The oddly specific predictions have a long history with Jacob Markstrom, dating back many years to the day we conjured his first-ever career shutout, eight seasons into his career. Let’s say he’ll score a goal this season against one of the only two teams that weren’t blanked at all last season. That will be the case on January 18th when the Flames host Toronto.
I know we’re all waiting to write off the Bruins without Patrice Bergeron, and a slow start would make that nice and easy. But, um, have you seen the absolute cupcake of an early program? Folks, this team starts 5-1-1.
No team allowed more overtime goals than the Flyers with 12, and they finished last in overtime goals with a paltry three goals. So it’s lucky for them that they don’t have a coach who specializes in making sure games go beyond the regular rules. Let’s give them a change of pace to open the season against one of John Tortorella’s former teams as they pick up an OT win over the Blue Jackets on Thursday.
Last season, Moritz Seider was a trendy Norris pick, and many of us tipped him to be the next blue line star to follow in the footsteps of Cale Makar and Adam Fox and break into the top tier of defensemen. It did not happen; he didn’t even get a vote. Is this the season? Yes, but only halfway, as Seider comes in sixth place in the Norris election.
Last season’s early schedule was a mess for the Coyotes, thanks to arena renovations that kept them on the road for 20 of their first 24 games. The start to this season will be better, including one night in the first ten games of the season where they do something they never managed to do last season: score seven goals.
Elias Pettersson runs with the puck. (Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
Pavel Bure holds just about every single-season scoring record you can think of in Vancouver, and most of them will stand for a long time. But one will fall this season as Elias Pettersson breaks Bure’s 30-year-old franchise record for shorthanded goals by scoring his eighth goal of the season.
Only one player in NHL history has scored more than one power play goal in outdoor games in his career. (It’s James van Riemsdyk, who played two of seven outdoor games, in case you were wondering.) Enjoy this while you can, JVR, because Leon Draisaitl will join you with two PPGs in the Heritage Classic against Calgary.
In the 2022/23 season there were 20 teams that scored at least eight goals in a game. The Kraken did it an incredible five times. The Capitals, Devils and Sabers have all done it twice. The Kings did it in a game they lost. But the powerful Golden Knights never made it…until the night they won the Cup. Their eighth goal of the night came into an empty net with six minutes left. They got one more to end the night at nine. It was one of the strangest cup-winning games of all time and I feel like we haven’t talked about it enough, is what I’m trying to say.
Either way, the Golden Knights will have an eight-goal game in December this season.
The Islanders were the only team that didn’t play a game in which they had the same number of shots as their opponent all last season. Yeah, I have no idea what to do with this information either. But let’s assume it happens at least once in the season opening round of three home games.
Here’s a strange statistic, especially considering how much talent the Panthers have: They led the league with six five-on-three goals allowed last season, while they themselves didn’t have a single five-on-three goal achieved. That means we have to give them an early five-on-three goal. How about next week’s home opener against Toronto?
And speaking of Toronto and its five-on-three stats…
Toronto Maple Leafs
One of the minor subplots of the Leafs’ 2022-23 season was that they went almost the entire time without a single five-on-three win. No five-on-three goal – they didn’t have a two-man advantage at all. That streak finally ended in the 71st game, and they scored 22 seconds into their only chance this season. (In case you’re wondering, every other team had at least four five-on-three chances, with the Wild being the league’s best team with 18.)
It’s probably a little too easy to predict that the Leafs won’t be able to maintain their 100 percent power play rate at five-on-three, so let’s raise the stakes a bit. Your first five-on-three goal of the season will be scored by someone other than Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares or William Nylander.
Andrei Vasilevskiy’s injury has derailed the Lightning’s season and could knock them out of a sure playoff spot. I’m not sure when he’ll be back or what the team will look like when he comes back, but I’m willing to predict a shutout in his first game back.
I have been trying to predict and/or manifest a goalie goal for years without success. (I missed by a few inches last year.) This time, we’re trying to change that luck by flipping the script a bit: At some point this season, the Avalanche will have a goalie score.
Here’s something so strange that even I couldn’t have predicted it. The Ducks went all of last season without ever scoring a goal despite being shorthanded. They were the only team that never scored a goal in the four-on-five system, and they also never scored a goal in any of the other teams that were considered shorthanded in the league (three-on-five, three-on -Six or four-on-six). ). Despite this, they were still awarded a shorthanded goal last season.
How? By scoring a penalty against the Panthers, which was awarded when they were down a man. This is recorded as a shorthanded goal in the balance sheet, even though the opponent had no skaters on the ice at the time. If you research this column you’ll find some strange things, man.
Anyway, the Ducks score a shorthanded goal in their opener against the Golden Knights.
Los Angeles Kings
The Kings are on a strangely long penalty shot drought, missing all six chances they’ve had since 2020, when Austin Wagner, of all people, was the last King to score. That ends this season when new signing Pierre-Luc Dubois gets one.
Remember last season’s second round when the Hurricanes took on the Devils and cheated by trading top player Mario Lemieux into their lineup disguised as Jordan Martinook? They play New Jersey three times this season and I expect the real Martinook to be pointless this season.
Columbus Blue Jackets
I expect the Blue Jackets to use Nickelback’s “Photograph” as their target song this season. And in case one doesn’t work, we offer another: Johnny Gaudreau breaks Artemi Panarin’s franchise record for points in a season, scoring his 88th on April 6 against the Flyers.
Seattle Kraken
Almost everything went well for the Kraken in the 2022-23 season, but one exception came in the shootout, where they scored just one goal all season while posting an almost unbelievably poor save percentage of just .364. (For comparison, only one other team was under .500 and two-thirds of the league was better than .600.) Not surprisingly, they didn’t win a shootout all season. It’s also no surprise that I expect them to win a few this season. The first game will be in November against the team that had the best shootout win percentage in the NHL last season, the Vancouver Canucks.
I don’t know how many goals Dominik Kubalík will score for the Senators this season, but one of them will come on October 21st when the Senators welcome Alex DeBrincat and the Red Wings to town.
You know this has to be a Connor Bedard choice as he is by far the main story in Chicago. How good can he be in the first year? The best rookie season since the Crosby/Ovechkin dual cohort is a duel between Evgeni Malkin and Mathew Barzal, both of whom finished their debut seasons with 85 points. Let’s make this a three-way dance where Bedard hits the mark.
Erik Karlsson doesn’t have to wait long for his first game in San Jose, which takes place on November 4th. And Penguins fans won’t have to wait long for the trade to pay off… for the Sharks when Mikael Granlund scores the winning goal that night.
I had this ridiculously lucky guess, the brilliant, correct prediction about the punishments for misconduct last season, so let’s try it again. The only two teams that didn’t get one at all in the 2022-23 season were the Oilers and Rangers, which I think made Mark Messier sad. They play twice this season, and in one of those games someone will get the rare and dreaded 10-minute call.
Connor Hellebuyck defends his net. (Stephen R. Sylvanie / USA Today)
Over the last four seasons, Connor Hellebuyck has played 250 games in the regular season and playoffs, won a Vezina, received Hart votes in three different seasons, won more games than anyone except Andrei Vasilevskiy, and recorded a league-leading 18 shutouts . What he hasn’t done in all this time: take a penalty. But in what could be a frustrating season in Winnipeg, feeling the pressure of a big extension, I expect Hellebuyck to lose his temper at some point this season and completely freak out, putting together… a rough minor.
One of the strangest stories at the start of the 2022-23 season was the wild swings in the Blues’ start, which saw them win their first three games, then lose eight in a row, then win seven in a row. We won’t see anything like that this season. In fact, the Blues won’t have a single win or loss streak longer than two games in the first month of the season.
San Jose Sharks
I will say this: Sharks fans are feisty this season. Apparently four months of hearing how terrible your team is going to be is enough to make anyone a little upset. Let’s give them something positive to chew on. In the first month of the season, the Sharks will get a win against the eventual Stanley Cup champions.
Minnesota Wild
A funny glitch in the matrix in Minnesota: The Wild have a good young defensive lineman named Calen Addison, while the Vikings have a good young receiver named Jordan Addison. For added fun, compare Calen’s goals and Jordan’s TDs this season.
Joel Hanley let us down last season, but after what he accomplished in 2022, we’re still loyal. So loyal, in fact, that we’re going to end this with the most outlandish prediction of all. Stars fans already know that I picked them as my cup winner, so you can probably guess where this is going. That’s right, Oddly Specific Predictions legend Joel Hanley will score the goal to win the Stanley Cup this season.
(So make sure you don’t swap it.)
(Top photos by Jack Hughes and Juraj Slafkovský: Elsa / Getty Images and Vincent Ethier / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)