According to the operator, the Finland-Estonia gas pipeline of the Baltic Connector will be out of operation for five months due to repair work. On the night of Saturday 7th to Sunday 8th October there was an unusual loss of pressure in the pipes, with Finnish Prime Minister Sauli Niinisto speaking of “an external activity”. There is suspicion of sabotage. And the case is one of the topics on the table at the NATO meeting in Brussels. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg clarified: “If it turns out that there has been a hostile act against NATO infrastructure, it will be a very serious matter and the response will be strong and decisive.” Stoltenberg spoke at a press event together with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who is visiting Brussels today.
The Nord Stream precedent
After the accident, which occurred on October 8 at around 10:20 p.m. Italian time, the Norwegian seismological institute Norsar discovered what it defines as a “probable explosion off the Finnish Baltic coast.” The alleged voluntary sabotage of the Baltic Connector is reminiscent of what happened last year to another gas pipeline: the NordStream, which connects Russia and Germany. In this case, the pipes had been blown in four different places, which immediately suggested sabotage. In March this year, the New York Times, citing US sources, pointed the finger at a pro-Ukrainian group, although Zelensky’s role is unclear. It seems almost obvious that this was a voluntary act. However, to date there is no certainty about who the real culprits are.
The consequences for Europe
The alleged sabotage of the Baltic Connector is not expected to have a major impact on European gas supplies as the Finnish system can continue to rely on the floating Inkoo LNG terminal. The questions relate more to the security of Europe’s energy infrastructures in a double war context: on the one hand Ukraine, on the other Israel. “Europe is preparing for a safe winter when it comes to gas. However, this depends on the integrity of its gas pipeline and LNG infrastructure – wrote Simone Tagliapietra, member of the Bruegel think tank, in X. Sabotage or disruptions could have serious consequences.”
The gas
What has implications for Europe is less the attack on the Baltic Connector than the closure of the Tamar plant off the coast of Israel, which was hit by some Hamas attacks. The gas coming from this hub passes through Egypt and then (also) ends up in Europe. And it is not yet clear what impact the escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will have on gas flows.
Photo credit: Patrol vessel Turva in the Gulf of Finland near a damaged pipeline and submarine cable EPA/FINNISH BORDER GUARD (October 10, 2023)
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