Last Saturday, Hamas used relatively modern weapons to establish itself in Israeli territory, killing at least 1,200 people and kidnapping about 130, mostly civilians, in just a few hours. The fundamentalist organization used drones, homemade projectiles, paragliders and even an excavator to break through a fence. He managed to cross the six-meter-high fence with which Israel surrounded the 41-kilometer-long and ten-kilometer-wide border with the Gaza Strip, in which 2.2 million Palestinians live, at 29 points. But the crucial factor, the specialists interviewed claim, are weapons that are as old as they are effective: the factor of surprise and deception of the enemy.
Fabian Hinz, military analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), believes that the main novelty of the attack lies in the current combination of all factors: missile launches, the use of paragliders, the arrival of small boats and the use of drones. “It can be difficult to think about such an operation and convince other people of its usefulness. Keeping it secret is more complicated. And what’s really complex is implementing it and making it effective,” he says via video conference.
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The analyst believes that Hamas militants were able to benefit from the fact that Israel never imagined that this organization had the intention of starting a war. Regarding the possibility that Hamas was supported by Iran, Hinz admits that it would be very difficult to prove this. “We don’t know whether Tehran knew about the operation. What we do know is that Iran has been teaching Hamas to make its own rockets for years. The weapons smuggled into Gaza are light weapons, mostly rifles. But the rockets or projectiles are handmade, their own. They can weigh between 20 and 300 kilos, but most weigh around 100 kilos. The ones used so far do not have precision guidance. “We don’t know whether Hamas is saving these rockets for later.” Authorities in Tehran have denied any involvement in the operation by the fundamentalist militia that rules Gaza.
4,000 projectiles in three days
Hamas fired 4,000 projectiles in three days, a similar number to the 4,360 it fired in May 2021 during the 11 days the war lasted. On this occasion, the Israeli air defense system, known as Iron Dome, was overwhelmed. Nobody knows what arsenal the fundamentalist militia still has. In 2021, Israeli intelligence agencies estimated the total number of rockets held by the various factions in Gaza at around 30,000. For his part, Hinz believes it is very likely that he has some military resources that he has not yet used.
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The paragliding attack was not unknown to the Israeli army. On the night of November 25, 1987, a Palestinian reached the Israeli camp of Gibor on a hang glider from southern Lebanon, where he killed six soldiers.
On Wednesday, October 11, 2023, rockets were fired from the Gaza Strip towards Israel.Fatima Shbair (AP)
Analyst Hinz assumes that it will be crucial in the coming days whether Lebanon’s Shiite militia Hezbollah joins the war. “In terms of military preparation, Hamas is 15 or 20 years behind Hezbollah. “The Shiite militia has Iranian Fateh-110 missiles that weigh 500 kilos and have a range of 300 kilometers,” he explains.
A Western expert who requests anonymity and maintains the account on the social network Obscura caliber, with 182,000 followers, agrees to highlight that none of the weapons used by Hamas so far – rockets, drones, boats, paragliders – are new to the group. “But,” he argues, “the combination of all these factors was very effective.” For this specialist, the key factor was a strict policy of the so-called OPSEC (Operational Security, in English), the ability to keep an operation of this caliber secret. “In addition,” adds the above-mentioned expert, “the distraction strategy and ultimately the surprise factor were crucial.”
For his part, Lucas Webber, co-founder of the website Militant Wire, explains via email that Hamas has strengthened its arsenal and operational capabilities in recent years. “The group,” he adds, “has developed a domestic artisanal weapons industry that includes drones, multiple rocket systems and air defense systems, all of which were used in the recent attack.”
Webber believes Israel will face shells, drones, landmines and mortars if it invades Gaza. “Israeli forces will advance into a hostile environment that is also one of the most densely populated areas in the world. The numerous tall buildings also allow for ambushes and sniper attacks. “This type of urban warfare will pose a challenge despite Israel’s significant military advantages over Hamas.”
Spanish security analyst Jesús Manuel Pérez Triana believes that the most relevant aspect of the attack from a technical perspective was the efficient use of drones. “Before they used very rudimentary drones. Now it is as if they have copied the techniques of the Ukraine war. We also saw in videos how they destroyed Israeli surveillance towers with drones. “This attack was intended to blind the Israeli command post.”
However, Pérez Triana points out that the key factor is Israel’s chain of errors caused by Hamas. “Everyone made the same mistake when they thought that Hamas no longer wanted to wage war since 2021. The destruction of the organization’s infrastructure and the loss of key leaders in the conflict with Israel in the spring of 2021 appeared to have deterred Hamas from attacking Israel, which turned its attention to the West Bank. The Israelis assumed that Hamas only wanted to increase work permits for Gazans. But in reality, the organization was preparing for a full-scale attack.”
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