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At around 6:30 p.m. local time on Wednesday, sirens sent millions flying run to emergency shelters in northern Israel. The country’s Home Front Command had discovered dozens of unknown aircraft, presumably drones, coming across the border and Infiltrating Israeli cities. It turned out to be a false alarm, the result of what an Israeli military spokesman called “human error,” but panicked civilians likely feared that Hezbollah, Israel’s long-time enemy in neighboring Lebanon, was just one had opened the second front in the war.
However, according to a top-secret US intelligence document, a massive attack is being planned by Hezbollah, the Iran-backed political party and militant group. would be unlikely. Earlier this year, US intelligence analysts saw a predictable, if still violent, balance between Israel and Hezbollah, reducing the risk of an all-out war in 2023.
Those assumptions are being tested after last week’s Hamas attack in southern Israel, which almost caught Israeli and U.S. officials by surprise.
According to an analysis prepared in February by the Joint Chiefs of Staff Intelligence Directorate, Israel and Hezbollah have maintained a posture of “mutual deterrence” since the conclusion of a historic agreement in October 2022 in which Lebanon and Israel agreed to demarcate their disputed maritime borders. The deal, 11 years in the making, marked a breakthrough and allowed each country to finally explore the lucrative gas fields off their coasts.
Israel and Hezbollah took steps to “maintain a willingness to use force” but remained “within their historical patterns of engagement,” which meant avoiding casualties and responding appropriately to provocations, the U.S. statement said. Briefing document issued by The Washington The post was obtained exclusively after it was shared on chat platform Discord.
Discord member details how documents were leaked from a closed chat group
Hezbollah is the strongest armed group and political party in Lebanon. Together with its allies, it held the majority in parliament until it fell a few seats short in the 2022 elections. The coalition continued to retain most of the seats in parliament.
As Lebanon falls deeper into an economic crisis and lacks state institutions and social services, Hezbollah has sought to consolidate its position as an alternative supporter for much of the country’s historically marginalized Shiite community.
“Even in times of heightened tensions,” Israel and Hezbollah had intended to “show strength while avoiding escalation,” the U.S. analysis said. For example, the document says, Israel could conduct sabotage operations in Lebanon or fire on uninhabited land while Hezbollah shoots down an Israeli drone or fires rockets into the northern part of the country. The actions are provocative, but are intended to avoid victims. Each side can show the other that it is on guard and can strike without triggering a major outbreak of hostilities.
But the analysis points to other factors that could affect that balance, including Hezbollah’s “inability to contain Palestinian militants” such as Hamas, which also operates in Lebanon.
In April, 34 rockets were fired at Israel from southern Lebanon. According to the Israeli military, this attack was carried out by Hamas operatives, whose leaders had met with Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah a day earlier in Lebanon. For months, the U.S. analysis said: “Israel saw a high risk of miscalculation due to Hamas-based attacks in Lebanon.” While Hezbollah may not be in favor of war with Israel, that outcome is essentially not entirely within its control, it suggested the US Secret Service.
An anti-Israel stance is at the core of Hamas and Hezbollah’s identity. Hamas, a Sunni Palestinian group, and Hezbollah, a Shiite Lebanese group, are at odds over the civil war in neighboring Syria, with Hezbollah supporting President Bashar al-Assad and Hamas backing his overthrow.
Timeline of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict
Senior leaders from both organizations have met in Lebanon in recent years – and as recently as April – to discuss normalization deals with Israel in the Middle East.
The State Department estimates that Hezbollah has tens of thousands of members and supporters worldwide and receives hundreds of millions of dollars in support from Iran annually. Experts call Hezbollah the most heavily armed non-state actor in the world. According to public Israeli sources, Hezbollah has expanded its arsenal of rockets and missiles from around 15,000 in 2006 to 130,000 in 2021. Nasrallah has claimed the group commands 100,000 fighters.
“I think a lot of people have made assumptions about how deterred Hamas and Hezbollah are,” said Matthew Levitt, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. While he broadly agreed with the U.S. intelligence assessment, Levitt said Hezbollah was now stronger It will likely take advantage of the war in the south, which has consumed much of the Israeli military’s attention.
“I understand [Hezbollah] I’m trying to change the rules little by little,” Levitt said. There has been artillery and rocket fire between the two sides since the Hamas attack on Saturday. Israel has deployed reserve troops to cities along the border with Lebanon.
“I expect little things will happen along the road [northern] Limit from time to time, like [Hezbollah] trying to remember that they are here,” Levitt said.
Hezbollah leaders’ rhetoric has already begun to change. In the first speech by a Hezbollah official after the Hamas attack, Hashem Safieddine said the group was “not neutral in this fight.” Hezbollah fighters “greeted Gaza in their own special way at Shebaa Farms,” he said, referring to Hezbollah attacks in a contested region in the north Israel on Sunday.
But the group’s subsequent statements showed restraint. In a statement on the US intervention, she called for expressions of solidarity and protests, while emphasizing that the resistance was ready for confrontation.
By comparison, other anti-Israel armed groups in the region, such as the Houthis in Yemen and Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq, threatened to attack in response to U.S. military aid to Israel.
But as U.S. intelligence analysis warned, such provocations carry their own risk of escalation, particularly when Hezbollah carries out what it says are limited attacks that end up killing Israeli forces or civilians.
“The potential for misjudgment is exceptionally high,” Levitt said.
Dadouch reported from Beirut. Shira Rubin in Tel Aviv contributed to this report.