Russian troops block Ukrainian forces near Avdiivka, the point with Sasha Vakulina and @TheStudyofWar.
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The ongoing localized Russian offensive operations near Avdiivka likely demonstrate the ability of Russian forces to learn and apply tactical lessons from the battlefield in Ukraine.
Geolocated images from October 10 and 11 confirm that Russian troops advanced southwest of Avdiivka, near Sieverne, and northwest of Avdiivka, near Stepove and Krasnohorivka.
According to Russian sources, Russian forces are likely to use electronic warfare systems, artillery preparation, aerial reconnaissance and other means rather than conducting frontal human slaughter-style infantry attacks.
The ISW believes that these adjustments are unlikely to result in major operational and strategic advantages for Russian forces.
Geotagged images show that Russian troops are concentrated around Avdiivka, southwest of Avdiivka, and that Russian forces have failed to operationally encircle it and will likely find it difficult to achieve this if that is their intention.
Avdiivka is also a known well-fortified and defended Ukrainian fortress, which will likely make it difficult for Russian forces to get close to the city or take it completely. The hypothetical capture of Avdiivka will not open new opportunities to advance into the rest of Donetsk Oblast.
As previously assessed by the ISW, Russian forces likely intend to attack the Avdiivka region in order to block Ukrainian forces and prevent them from moving to other areas of the front. However, Ukrainian officials have already identified the Avdiivka push as a Russian fixation operation and are unlikely to station undue Ukrainian troops on that axis.
Additional sources • ISW @TheStudyofWar