The Detroit Lions are on a three-game winning streak and are hoping to continue their dominance over almost every opponent they have faced so far. However, the Lions have stumbled against one NFC opponent this year, and they hope it won’t be two. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are one of the first surprises in the league with a 3-1 record. But is this gold for fools, or will the Bucs end up being the team that emerges from the NFC South?
Let’s take a look at how the two teams fare in our Week 6 paper preview and prediction.
Lions pass offense (4th) vs. Buccaneers pass defense (2nd)
The Detroit Lions have suffered a multitude of injuries to their offensive linemen and skill position players and haven’t missed a beat all season.
Jared Goff – the No. 1 quarterback by PFF grade – is in the midst of arguably his best season yet. He ranks first in adjusted completion percentage, fourth in yards per attempt (8.0), sixth in passer rating and fourth in adjusted net yards per attempt (7.6).
He is supported by one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. Detroit ranks fifth in the PFF pass-blocking rating while giving up just seven sacks this year, the third fewest among teams that have played five games. While the team’s pressure percentage allowed is the 11th highest in the league, Goff has done a phenomenal job of managing that pressure by limiting sacks and turnovers. Under pressure, he ranks 11th in the PFF class (62.6) compared to 30th last year (41.2).
Goff is also supported by a hugely underrated receiving corps. The Lions have the third-highest PFF receiving grade in the NFL, with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Josh Reynolds and Kalif Raymond all ranked among PFF’s top 20 receivers.
However, there are some serious injuries in this group that could negatively impact this aspect of the game. It’s likely the Lions will be missing left guard Jonah Jackson and running back Jahmyr Gibbs, while the availability of tight end Sam LaPorta is also very much in question. LaPorta, in particular, has been invaluable as both a third-down release valve and a blocker in both the run and pass games.
The Bucs’ pass defense was extremely impressive in the first month of the season. Not only did they hold every quarterback not named Kirk Cousins well below their season passer rating average, but they also ranked 10th in yards per attempt allowed (6.5), fifth in passer percentage rating (75.1), eighth in expected dropback points and fifth in dropback success rate.
The key to their success is not entirely clear. Their pass rush isn’t exceptional, but it gets the job done. Tampa ranks 23rd in pass-rush win rate, 11th in PFF pass-rushing rating and 18th in pressure percentage – and yet they’ve produced an average of three sacks per game.
Their range is certainly impressive, and now that they’re fully healthy, they should be reaching their full potential. The Bucs already have six interceptions, the most of any team with just four games played. Their secondary is led by Antoine Winfield Jr., their all-rounder. He is a capable blitz player, coverage guard and fearless tackler in the run game. He has already forced two fumbles this year, so Detroit would be wise to focus particularly on ball security this week.
Player to Watch: Vita Vea vs. ??? Frank Ragnow has competed against Vea once in his career and was able to get a clean score. But that was already in 2019 and Vea is now an outstanding player. Either way, the really worrisome matchup is whoever the Lions use to replace Jackson on the left side. Would the Lions dare send rookie Colby Sorsdal there? Moving a few pieces to get a combination of Graham Glasgow and Halapoulivaati Vaitai? Or do they trust Kayode Awosika to hold the fort?
Advantage: Lions +1. The Lions have weathered every injury storm out there, and while the Bucs are probably the most impressive defense they’ve faced to date, I would argue that this is the most impressive passing attack the Bucs have ever faced. Much of Tampa’s success has come from turnovers, and outside of the Seahawks’ play, the Lions have had good control of the ball since the middle of last season.
Lions run on offense (5th) vs. Buccaneers run on defense (21st)
The Lions’ rushing attack finally appears to be getting going after a mediocre start to the season. David Montgomery is playing like one of the best defenders in the league, entering Week 6 with back-to-back 100-yard performances on the ground.
The advanced stats also start to increase. Detroit currently ranks seventh in EPA, ninth in rushing success rate, 11th in rushing PFF rate, fourth in run-blocking PFF rate and fifth in Adjusted Line yards.
By almost any statistical measure, this is a top-10 rushing attack — bordering on a top-five unit. Most impressive is the combination of good offensive line play and good yards after contact. According to Pro Football Reference, Detroit currently ranks eighth in yards before contact per attempt (2.8) and their defense has produced the second-most broken tackles.
After a good start to the season, the Bucs’ run defense has regressed a bit over the last two weeks. Obviously, getting run over by the Eagles is a danger for most teams, but they’ve had it worse than most teams. And even though the Saints didn’t score many yards, the game likely would have been more competitive in the second half.
Overall, the Bucs rank 18th in yards per carry allowed (4.1), but the advanced stats show a much more concerning situation for Tampa. They rank last in PFF’s run defense rate, last in ESPN’s run stop win rate, 27th in adjusted line yards and 28th in run success rate allowed.
What that tells me is that they don’t give up a lot of big plays on the ground, but you can consistently run 4-8 yard plays against them – which is exactly what the Lions love to do.
Player to Watch: LaVonte David. The Bucs linebacker leads the team with three tackles for loss, and although his 57.7 run defense grade ranks him 62nd among linebackers, the accomplished 11-year veteran is still a smart and dangerous player .
Advantage: Lions +2.5. This looks to be another optimal game from David Montgomery, which could mean a huge workload for him this Sunday. I wouldn’t expect the Lions’ rushing attack to put up a 200-yard game this week, but a solid 150 at 4.0+ yards per carry seems entirely doable against this run defense.
Buccaneers pass offense (18th) vs. Lions pass defense (8th)
Baker Mayfield has undoubtedly had a strong start to his Buccaneers career. Tampa has built an offense around piracy and play-action that plays to Mayfield’s strengths, and he has them with current career-highs in completion percentage (69.6), passer rating (101.5) and QBR (70.1), as well as third-best Completion rate rewarded above expectations in the league (+5.8%).
Overall, the Bucs rank sixth in EPA per dropback, 14th in completion percentage, 14th in PFF passing grade, and Mayfield ranks seventh in adjusted net yards per attempt.
Why do they only rank 18th in DVOA? Look at the opponent’s strength. The Bears (31st), Vikings (21st) and Eagles (19th) all rank in the bottom half of the league in pass defense DVOA. However, the Bucs were quite efficient against the Saints, who currently have the seventh-best pass defense DVOA. So far there is at least some sign of the legitimacy of this temporary offense.
Of course, you can’t talk about the Bucs’ passing offense without talking about arguably the best receiver duo in the league. Mike Evans – who is struggling with a hamstring injury – and Chris Godwin are two big threats whenever they are targeted. However, there is a huge decline after these two. Godwin and Evans accounted for 592 of the team’s 882 receiving yards (67%). The next leading wideout (Deven Thompkins) has eight catches for 61 yards. However, keep an eye out for sixth-round rookie Trey Palmer, who has caught a pass in each of the team’s four games and found the end zone twice.
The Lions haven’t faced many standout passing attacks this year, but have been surprisingly strong in every game but one this year. The unfortunate news is that the only offense that beat them was the Seattle Seahawks – where the Buccaneers’ new offensive coordinator (Dave Canales) came from.
Still, the Lions will be one of the tougher challenges for the Bucs’ passing attack. Detroit ranks 10th in dropback EPA, seventh in yards per attempt allowed (6.4), ninth in pass breakups and 10th in passer rating.
Where Detroit could make the difference is their pass rush. Although they strangely rank 31st in ESPN’s pass-rush win rate, they have generated more pressure than all but two teams, having the seventh-highest pressure rate while also having the second-lowest blitz rate in the league.
Player to Watch: Aidan Hutchinson vs. Luke Goedeke. The Bucs’ second-year right tackle is off to a strong start to the season, but just take this line from our Honolulu Blueprint by Erik Schlitt:
In his last game against the Panthers, he faced off against Taylor Moton, who has never given up more than five pressures in a game… Until last week, when he gave up eight pressures to Hutchinson.
Advantage: draw. Maybe I’m underestimating the Lions’ pass defense, but I think this Bucs pass offense is more legitimate than their DVOA rankings suggest. Detroit was a weak game against the Seahawks’ plan and that’s what the Bucs bring. They don’t quite have the personnel that Seattle does, but with Evans and Godwin, they have more than enough to give Detroit problems if they don’t play disciplined football.
Buccaneers run on offense (28th) vs. Lions run on defense (4th)
The Week 4 game against the Saints was a step in the right direction for Tampa Bay, but overall this was one of the worst rushing attacks in football to date. The Bucs average just 3.0 yards per carry (32nd) and rank 26th in rush EPA and 31st in success rate.
Their biggest problem right now is their interior offensive line. The Bucs rank 32nd in run block win rate, 25th in PFF run blocking rate, 31st in adjusted line yards, and all three of their interior offensive linemen are showing currently run blocking rate below 65. Rookie right guard Cody Mauch struggled the most, maintaining a run-blocking grade of 36.3 – last among starting NFL guards.
Meanwhile, the Lions’ run defense continues to be one of the best in the NFL. While they weren’t at their best last week, it’s worth noting that nearly a third of Carolina’s production came from plays from receiver Laviska Shenault.
Overall, Detroit ranks third in yards per carry allowed (3.3), tenth in adjusted line yards, eighth in run defense EPA and fifth in success rate.
Individually, the Lions are getting excellent play from linebackers Derrick Barnes (73.2 run defense grade) and Alex Anzalone (67.7), while defensive tackle Alim McNeill is in the midst of a breakout year. His 86.0 PFF run defense grade is the second-best among all interior defenders.
Player to Watch: McNeill vs. Bucs’ terrible guards. This could be a game-changing day for McNeill as it is about as one-sided as a one-on-one match can be.
Advantage: Lions +3. Literally, the only reason to fear this Detroit matchup is that Baker Mayfield comes out on top. To be fair, he ran the ball 23 times this year but only gained 61 yards. He’s a mobile quarterback capable of grabbing a third down or two with his feet, but he’s not someone who’s going to make a lot of designed runs.
Last week’s forecast
On paper, it is now 3-2 on straight predictions and 5-0 on the spread. No adjustments were needed this week as I gave the Lions a +9 lead over the Panthers, and that’s what it looked like on Sunday. The only real perceived “failure” was the +3 advantage for the Lions’ run defense, which could indicate some regression for that unit, but is unlikely against a poor Bucs rushing attack this week.
There were a lot of good predictions in the comments section last week, some of which were dashed by Carolina’s late touchdown in garbage time. Both Kevster (48-24) and Hendo44 (45-27) were just six points away from the actual 42-24 score, but Hendo44 secured the victory and took the win this week.
Here’s your price, Hendo44:
The Lions have suffered a strange number of injuries during midweek practice. Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs, James Mitchell and Josh Paschal all appeared on the injury report midweek this season, suggesting the Lions may be working a little too hard at practice. So a few log sheds wrapped in bubble wrap should help.
This week’s prediction:
The Lions come out with one +6.5 advantage over the Buccaneers, and while that’s obviously a pretty big number, it seems like this matchup could be closer than the overall stats suggest. Both passing plays could really go either way, and that could tip the scales either way.
But the Lions want to get into a physical ground-and-pounds game, and that’s where they have an obvious advantage over Tampa. The Buccaneers also place a lot of emphasis on the running game, so I wouldn’t expect a shootout through the air on Sunday. So I still expect the Lions to pull off a pretty comfortable win. Lions 27, Buccaneers 20.