By beating the Braves in four games instead of five, the Phillies positioned themselves even better for the NLCS than they did for the NLDS.
Their ace, Zack Wheeler, will be on the mound for Game 1 on two days of extra rest.
Aaron Nola will start Game 2 with an additional day of rest.
Ranger Suarez is due for Game 3 on two days of additional rest.
And then the Phillies will need a No. 4 starter for the first time in the 2023 postseason. They used Taijuan Walker and Cristopher Sanchez in both the wild-card and divisional rounds, but didn’t use either pitcher.
Walker has not pitched since Sept. 30 at Citi Field. Sanchez pitched one inning of relief that day, but has not started a game since September 24. When one of them starts in the NLCS, it will have been three weeks since their last appearance.
“We had something prepared (for them) today but we won’t be able to get on the field so we’ll have to do something shorter tomorrow,” manager Rob Thomson said on Saturday before an optional team training session.
The NLCS is a best-of-7. The Phils can use Wheeler in Games 1 and 5. You can use Nola in games 2 and 6. You can use Suarez in Games 3 and 7, with everyone on the team except the Game 6 starter likely available for this theoretical must-win game.
The Diamondbacks will use their ace, Zac Gallen, in Game 1 and can use him the same way the Phillies use Wheeler. Merrill Kelly will start in Game 2 and can be used the same way the Phils use Nola.
Arizona’s pitching staff beyond these two is its weakness. The D-Backs used rookie Brandon Pfaadt in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series and he gave up three runs on seven hits over 2⅔ innings. Pfaadt had a 5.72 ERA in the regular season and his opponents hit .282 with an OPS of .862. He was better in the NLDS against the Dodgers, throwing 4⅓ scoreless innings.
The Phillies will have the pitching advantage with Suarez over Pfaadt, if that is indeed the case.
“To be honest, I would put our top three against anyone, especially now,” Thomson said on Saturday. “I feel really good about Ranger competing against everyone.”
Neither Walker nor Sanchez faced the Diamondbacks in the regular season. Thomson did not say which pitcher will start in the NLCS. Both would probably have a short leash. Sanchez posted a 3.44 ERA in 99⅓ innings in the majors this season and was at his best in September, striking out 10 in two of his last three starts against the Braves and Mets.
Walker went 15-6 with a 4.38 ERA in 31 starts, pitching a career-high 172⅔ innings. He fits the description of an innings-eater, but you don’t have to eat as many innings in the playoffs if you use heavily indebted relievers at the start of games. First innings were a big problem for Walker all year – he allowed 24 runs for a 7.04 ERA. In no other frame did he allow more than 15 runs. What role does a three-week break play in this?
According to Pfaadt, Arizona doesn’t really have a No. 4 starter and could end up using an opener in a bullpen game.
The D-backs’ most dangerous hitters are left guard Corbin Carroll, right guards Christian Walker and Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and switch-hitter Ketel Marte. Their catcher, Gabriel Moreno, has hit a home run three times in five playoff games.
“Their entire team was hot during the Dodgers series. We need to be aware of this,” Thomson said.
The Diamondbacks love running and using their athleticism. Carroll stole 54 bases in 59 attempts. Outfielder Jake McCarthy, the nine-hole hitter against righties, stole 26. Even Walker went 11-for-11.
“I didn’t have to read the reports to know they were really athletic and had a lot of speed,” Thomson said. “They play great defense, they cover a lot of space, they run, and when you think they’re done running, they’ll run some more. They have a good hitter in the middle of their lineup, good pitching. This.” “It’s a really good club. It’s no coincidence they were in first place out there in the West.”
The Phillies have handled the running game well in their two playoff series, better than their opponents. Part of that was JT Realmuto with quick rallies and strong throws. Some of that was the Phillies pitching staff simply limiting the number of baserunners.
A big part of that is because their pitchers are quicker at the plate. Nola incorporated a slide step last month that not only helped control base stealers but also disrupted hitters’ timing. For years he felt like the slip step had a negative impact on his stuff, but right now that’s not the case. Closer Craig Kimbrel, who led the majors in pitch clock violations in 2023, has also tried to speed things up.
“I feel pretty good about it at the moment. If you had asked me that question a month ago, I would have had a different answer,” Thomson said. “But our guys were aware of that and tried to go faster to give JT a chance.”
“The coaching staff, we got together and talked to some guys about how we need to get a little quicker. Aaron definitely did a great job. There was a conscious effort across the staff.”
The Phillies will be at full strength for Game 1 on Monday night at Citizens Bank Park. They had a scare with Bryce Harper in the eighth inning of their NLDS matchup when Braves first baseman Matt Olson accidentally hit the elbow that Harper had surgically repaired last Thanksgiving.
Harper immediately clutched his arm as the boisterous crowd fell silent. But ten minutes later he was out again in the ninth inning and said afterwards that it was just his whim.
“He’s good, he’s ready to go,” Thomson said. “He was here today and we’re good to go.”
Catastrophe averted.