Ecuador is trying to turn things around to get out of the long night it is in. Battered by uncontrolled violence, the weakness of institutions, unemployment, the specter of migration and a tax debt of $5 billion at the end of this year, this country of 17 million people goes to the polls this Sunday with the illusion of finding a voter embark on a new nation project that will save it from this desolate panorama. Daniel Noboa, 35, heir to a banana empire, is ahead in recent polls – albeit by a narrow margin – over Luisa González, 45, the candidate from former President Rafael Correa’s party. The end result is uncertain.
Noboa, a Harvard graduate and third-generation owner of a family-owned multinational business, has pitched himself as president of jobs and is willing to cut taxes and encourage foreign investment. In the first round in August, González won by nine points (33% vs. 24), but since the start of the second round, Noboa began to take a lead of several heads. The young politician made his presence felt in a candidate debate, where he appeared steadfast and calm, regardless of the attacks from other speakers. Furthermore, he was seen as a safe option in a system that appears rotten, especially after the assassination of another candidate in the campaign, Fernando Villavicencio, a journalist who had denounced the infiltration of Ecuadorian institutions by drug trafficking.
Daniel is not the first Noboa to want to take control of the country. His father, Álvaro, ran up to five times without success – once he was 2% short of victory. The father was a much more populist politician who gave away money and computers at his rallies. He called himself “the Messiah of the poor.” He was a bitter enemy of Correa, the controversial left-wing president now embroiled in legal proceedings who lifted millions of Ecuadorians out of poverty during his time in office. The son’s style is much more sober, less disturbing. More modern, if you like. He did not confront Correism directly, which freed him from the polarization in which Ecuadorians have been immersed for almost 20 years.
Whoever is chosen will receive a country reeling from drug cartels that have gained extraordinary power over the past five years. Until recently, Ecuador was a relatively quiet nation nestled between Peru and Colombia, the world’s two largest coca producers. Somehow he had managed to prevent criminal groups from entering. However, the dollarization of its economy and its extensive Pacific coastline made it an attractive territory for Mexican mafias allied with local gangs. These gangs exercise their power in prisons, a place where anarchy currently reigns. If the murder rate continues these months, Ecuador will break its crime record since records began and officially become one of the most dangerous countries in the world.
Military checks drivers at a checkpoint before the second round of presidential elections in Durán, Ecuador. SANTIAGO ARCOS (Portal)
The candidates have reduced their public events to a minimum. When they emerged, they were wearing bulletproof vests and surrounded by a large security structure. None of them were very specific when it came to offering their prescriptions for ending the violence. Noboa talks about using drones and satellites to track criminals and locking the most dangerous prisoners on barges in the middle of the sea. González proposes militarizing prisons, customs offices and ports, all currently taken over by the drug trade, and conducting a thorough purge of security forces. Analysts believe these proposals are inadequate in the face of such an acute problem.
Nothing has illustrated the corruption and cynicism of the Ecuadorian authorities better than the results of the Villavicencio murder investigation. The police initially arrested seven people involved in the crime, an Ecuadorian and six Colombians who acted as contract killers. The seven were theoretically moved from one prison to another for security reasons, but a week ago they were found hanged. Although they were essential to clarifying the truth and were known to face the death penalty, the government was unable to protect their lives. The system appears to be conspiring to silence their voices.
If Noboa were the youngest president in Ecuador’s history, González would be the first female elected president. Unobtrusive, not very charismatic, she has always remained loyal to Correa. She held several public positions during his presidency and has now been chosen by him as a member of parliament to try to return to power. She nostalgically appeals to a time – between 2007 and 20017 – when the murder rate was five times lower than today and the boom in oil and other raw materials significantly improved the country.
The most suspicious believe that the appointment of González is nothing more than a strategy to facilitate the return to Ecuador of Correa, who is in exile in Belgium because of an eight-year prison sentence for bribery in the Odebrecht case – he assures that it is a political one Strategy is about pursuit. It is not lost on anyone that Correa did not dislike the presidential sash and that he would like to return to office one day. Just in case, she has already said that she will not pardon him, although she will make him her main advisor.
We must not forget that Ecuador’s economy is at critical moments. The next ruler will face a budget deficit of 4% of GDP. Options for the next president are limited as the current administration has a $6.5 billion contract with the International Monetary Fund from 2020 to 2022. Since then there have been no new approaches with the IMF and for a government that will only last 16 months – what was left of the Lasso government before he ordered the closure of the assembly and the calling of elections – it will be difficult to obtain new loans. Anyone who arrives will do so with their hands tied.
That’s why Ecuador goes to the polls with a sense of urgency. At one of his last rallies, González said dramatically: “In this election we are risking our lives.” Noboa: “We will change the country together.” Although they propose opposite models, they agree that continuing this destructive path calls Ecuador the label of a failed state.
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