Ukraine
The major attack in Donetsk launched on Tuesday is said to have resulted in heavy losses for Moscow’s armed forces
Sun, Oct 15, 2023, 1:54 p.m. BST
A senior Ukrainian commander has claimed that Russia’s biggest offensive in months – involving tanks, thousands of soldiers and armored vehicles in an attack on the eastern Ukrainian town of Avdiivka – had failed, admitting that Kiev’s own attempts to advance in the south were proving to be a failure proven “unsuccessful”. difficult”.
Russian forces last week attacked the city, a key bulge surrounded by Russian-held territory on the eastern Donbass front.
It is one of Moscow’s largest attacks since last year’s full-scale invasion and comes at a time when Ukraine’s counteroffensive is slowly progressing and the world is focused on Israel’s impending ground invasion of the Gaza Strip.
At least three Russian battalions, each supported by an estimated 2,000 to 3,000 soldiers, launched a dawn attack on Tuesday. Drone footage showed a line of military vehicles rolling forward. Since then there has been fierce fighting. Russia has bombarded the city with relentless artillery fire and airstrikes.
About 1,000 residents still live in Avdiivka, while the pre-war population was 30,000. Photo: Alex Babenko/EPA
Ukrainian military officials say Moscow’s goal is to encircle Avdiivka, but so far the attackers have had modest success. The Russian 25th Combined Arms Army pushed forward from the south and north. It captured the nearby village of Berdychi and enclosed a 150-meter-high slag heap next to the town’s coke and chemical plant.
The Russians suffered heavy losses. At least 36 Russian tanks and armored vehicles were destroyed in the first 24 hours. According to the Kyiv Post, that number has risen to 102 tanks and 183 armored vehicles, with 2,840 soldiers killed. There were chaotic scenes. A tank fell from a pontoon bridge into a river. Another crushed a Russian soldier while reversing; A Ukrainian munition then blew it up.
Colonel Dmytro Lysyuk – the commander of Ukraine’s 128th separate mountain assault brigade – said he believed there was no possibility the Russian army would break through.
He said sending a long military column into battle would not work – a tactic used when Russian forces tried to take Kiev and the eastern city of Vuhledar in February last year.
Ukrainian commander Dmytro Lysyuk says Russia’s large-scale tactics ‘aren’t working’ – video
“The Russians should have recognized this long ago,” said Lysyuk. “They didn’t even manage to achieve tactical success.”
He added that General Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the Russian General Staff, was responsible: Gerasimov underestimated Ukraine’s strength in Avdiivka, which has been on the front line since 2014, when Moscow captured the nearby city of Donetsk. “It was an intelligence failure,” Lysyuk said.
A Russian victory on the battlefield would strengthen support for the war at home. Lysyuk said the Kremlin’s political goal was to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk Oblast.
In September 2022, Vladimir Putin claimed that he had “annexed” the entire Eastern Province, although his forces only controlled about half of it. “They want to do it by the end of 2023. “They won’t make it,” the colonel predicted. He added: “Given the scale of their losses, this is a very obvious defeat.”
Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the southern Zaporizhzhia region, where the 128th Brigade is fighting, was tough, he acknowledged.
“It’s very hard to move forward,” he admitted. There are huge obstacles, he said. These included numerous minefields laid by Russia over the past 18 months; an extensive defensive trench network dug in three lines; and kamikaze and first-person view (FPV) drones.
A Ukrainian artillery unit fires on Russian positions near Avdiivka. Photo: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
Lysyuk said Ukraine had adjusted its tactics. Instead of using heavy tanks, which were vulnerable to air attack, his brigade used more stealthy “small group” formations.
This involved eight soldiers and a dozen-man evacuation team, supported by precise firepower. The group stormed enemy positions, sometimes driving off up to 40 Russians. “We are progressing 100 to 500 meters every day,” he said.
Since early June, Kiev has recaptured a small portion of territory south of the Ukrainian-controlled village of Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia. Lysyuk said his forces were able to advance further and take occupied Tokmak – a key logistics and railway hub – as well as the city of Melitopol.
He declined to say when this might happen. “It’s hard to predict. I would like to see Tokmak this year. We are creating conditions for future action,” he said.
One obstacle was the lack of aviation. The F-16s promised by the Netherlands, Denmark and Belgium are not expected to arrive anytime soon. Lysyuk said his brigade had received Western anti-tank weapons, mortars and night vision devices.
It did not yet have modern battle tanks and fought with Soviet T-72s and 2S1 self-propelled artillery units. The Russians are superior in “certain areas,” he said, pointing to their manpower and electronic warfare and reconnaissance equipment.
A Ukrainian soldier walks through a trench dug by Russia in the Zaporizhia region. Photo: Roman Pilipey/AFP/Getty Images
Lysyuk said his brigade is prepared for the upcoming cold season. “We have already had a winter behind us. The situation is difficult, but not critical. We know what to do,” he said.
Soldiers in trenches would be rotated more frequently – every two to four hours instead of every six to eight – and shelters would be built where they could warm up. Ukraine could still go further. Success depends on “cunning” and “constantly changing” tactics that crush the enemy, he said.
Pentagon officials criticized Ukraine’s battlefield strategy, suggesting that a large concentration of troops at a single point could achieve quicker results. Lysyuk said he had to find the balance between offensive operations and the need to save the lives of his soldiers.
“We think about losses all the time. “People are our most valuable resource,” he said. He added: “We are fighting a strong enemy. There will be no quick victory. We should have no illusions.”
Russian military bloggers are increasingly pessimistic about the likelihood of their troops capturing Avdiivka. After initially gaining some ground, Russian troops were quickly pinned down as Ukraine responded with counter-battery fire. said one blogger.
“A return to ‘offensive’ tactics after almost a year of defense is not easy for the troops,” they said, adding that Ukrainian forces would try to regain lost positions.
Avdiivka. We stand our ground. It is Ukraine’s courage and unity that will decide the end of this war. We all need to remember that.
Photo: Oleg Palchyk pic.twitter.com/X1vV9CMUAW
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володиmir Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) October 12, 2023
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky praised the courage of his country’s defenders. “Avdiivka. We stand our ground,” Zelenskiy posted on social media. He shared images of soldiers driving through the destroyed city.
“It is Ukraine’s courage and unity that will determine how this war will end,” he wrote.
In a video address recorded on Saturday, Zelenskyy described Avdiivka as one of several places on the front line where it is “particularly hot at the moment.”
“I thank everyone who is holding their positions and destroying the Russian troops. Every day of these battles means lives. Lives sacrificed for our country,” he said.
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