October 15, 2023, 10:56 am
Tusk sings of victory: “The reign of Pis is over.” Visitor forecasts speak of record numbers. If polls confirm, the opposition will have the majority of seats
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Polling stations are closed in Poland, where the 460 members of the Sejm, the lower house of parliament, and the 100 of the Senate were elected for the next four years. The challenge lies between the outgoing Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and the former Prime Minister and former President of the European Council Donald Tusk. Around 30 million citizens have called for parliamentary elections. According to the first election polls, the Pis sovereigntists are in first place with 36.8%, but the pro-Europeans of Tusk have an immediate majority of seats.
Tusk: “The reign of Pis is over” Polish opposition leader Donald Tusk has declared that the “rule” of the ruling Law and Justice party (PiS) is “over”. This happened at the end of the general elections with the data of the first exit polls. The former EU Council President told his supporters that “this dark time is over, the rule of law and justice is over,” adding: “Poland has triumphed, democracy has triumphed.” “I have never been so happy in my life,” Tusk said again, according to Polish media. “A year ago no one believed it. Three months ago we weren’t sure. Just yesterday people came to me and asked me if we could do it because we hadn’t done it for so many years,” he said added. “I greet everyone who is still at the polling stations that this result could be even better. Today we can say that these bad times are over.”
Exit poll data in Poland According to the only exit polls from the Polish parliamentary elections, Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s conservative, nationalist and populist Law and Justice (PiS) party would come first with 36.8% of the vote. As expected, the centrist and pro-European electoral alliance “Civic Coalition” of former EU Council President Donald Tusk would come in second with 31.6%. The Ipsos Institute survey is published by the Polish news channel Tvn24.
If the data is confirmed, the majority of seats will be in the opposition In third place is Terza via with 13%. The New Left also exceeded the threshold with 8.6% and the Radical Right of the Confederation with 6.2%. If these percentages are confirmed by the vote count, the Pis victory would still not allow the party to govern alone. Given the seats, according to the Ipsos exit poll, the three opposition parties led by Donald Tusk would control a majority in the lower house of the Polish parliament with 248 MPs, compared to the 200 the Pis would have by merging with the right-wing Confederate extremists.
According to the exit poll, Kaczynski’s Law and Justice party (Pis) would win 200 seats, more than the 163 that would go to Tusk’s Citizens Coalition. However, he will be able to count on the 55 deputies of the “Third Way” alliance and the 30 of the “Left”, as shown by the electoral poll, which allocates only 12 seats to the Confederation (212 in total).
Parliamentary elections in Poland: the challenge between Morawiecki and Tusk The open battle is between Jarosław Kaczyński’s sovereign Law and Justice party (Pis) and Donald Tusk’s pro-European Citizens Coalition (KO). However, one party and two smaller alliances will be decisive. The polls showed 33-36% voting intentions, albeit a sharp decline compared to 43.6% in 2019, for the conservative and populist Law and Justice party (PiS, in power) led by Kaczynski. The centrist and pro-European electoral alliance “Ko” of former EU Council President Tusk was rated with a “margin” of 26-28%.
According to analysts, if they win, the PiS will have difficulty forming a governing coalition and thus clear the way for the opposition led by Tusk.
Small parties make the difference What matters is how many seats the “Confederation” will win, a right-wing, racist, homophobic party that wants to cut military aid to Ukraine but also denies that it wants to ally with the Pis. Even Kaczynski says he doesn’t want her. Tusk, on the other hand, wants to reach an agreement with the parties of two smaller alliances: the newly founded center-right party with partly agricultural connotations “Third Way” and the social democratic, EU-friendly and progressive party “The Left”.
How the electoral system works in Poland The votes collected by parties and alliances that land below the respective thresholds of 5 and 8% go to the winner, probably to the Pis, so it is difficult to clearly predict whether eight years in which the Pis will be in conflict have advised, continue or will end With the PiS since 2015. “EU, among other things, for the politicization of the judiciary and the subjugation of the public media.” For this reason, a PiS victory could increase tensions with Brussels and Kiev and disappoint those who worry about the future of the rule of law, freedom of the press, women’s rights and migrants. Final results are expected on Tuesday, October 17th.
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