WARSAW – Poland’s opposition parties appear to have won a clear victory in the country’s parliamentary elections, according to an exit poll released immediately after voting ended at 9 p.m. on Sunday.
Although the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party led the way in support, three leading opposition parties held a majority of seats in the 460-member parliament.
If the result holds, it will be a stunning defeat for the PiS and could help thaw relations between Brussels and Warsaw. The party mobilized all of the state’s resources to help it win, and also received strong support from the state media – which is firmly in the ruling party’s camp.
But PiS has been hampered by a growing number of scandals – including allegations that officials sold Vistas in exchange for bribes. Eight years of tension and social conflict with battles over abortion, the rule of law, grain imports from Ukraine and terrible relations with the EU, which has frozen the disbursement of billions on rule of law grounds, have also weakened support for PiS.
In the exit poll, PiS received 36.8 percent of the vote, followed by the centrist Citizens Coalition with 31.6 percent, the center-right Third Way with 13 percent, the Left with 8.6 percent and the far-right Confederation with 6.2 Percent. In 2019, the PiS received 43.6 percent of the vote.
The survey was conducted by IPSOS and made available to the three largest television channels in Poland. The survey has a margin of error of 2 percent.
According to the election survey, voter turnout was 73 percent – a record.
It looks like PiS will win too few seats to achieve a majority in parliament, even if it allies with the Confederation – which has said it will not form a coalition with Law and Justice. The three other parties have committed to working together to oust PiS.
According to the exit poll, Law and Justice would win 200 seats, Civic Coalition 163, Third Way 55, Left 30 and Confederation 12.
The three leading opposition parties would have 248 seats in parliament, while PiS and the Bund had 212 seats.
PiS leader Jarosław Kazcyński described the result as a victory for his party, but admitted: “The question before us is whether this success can be converted into another term of office for our government.” We don’t know that at the moment, but we have to hope and know that we will carry out this project whether we are in power or in opposition, and will not allow Poland to be betrayed.”
He added: “We will not allow Poland to be betrayed,” and said his party would work to ensure that its program is not abandoned.
Donald Tusk, chairman of the Civic Coalition, was overjoyed with the result.
“I am the happiest person on earth,” said the former prime minister and president of the European Council, whose return to Polish politics in 2021 was crucial to the opposition’s hopes.
“We will create a good new democratic government with our partners,” he said, denouncing the last eight years of “evil.”
Once the vote count is complete, the next step lies with President Andrzej Duda, who said presidents traditionally choose a member of the largest party to name him prime minister and take the first step toward forming a government.
Whoever votes for Duda would have 14 days to form a government and try to win an absolute majority in a confidence vote in parliament. If this attempt fails, it will be Parliament’s turn to appoint a prime minister.
The election was marked by one of the bitterest electoral battles in Poland’s democratic history.
Kaczyński described the opposition as an existential threat to the nation. He accused Tusk of colluding with Berlin and Brussels to hinder Poland’s independence and allow in a flood of migrants from Muslim countries.
The opposition warned that a third PiS term would move Poland decisively away from liberal democracy by cementing the ruling party’s influence over the judiciary, media and state-owned enterprises, and would move Poland towards Hungary’s illiberal democracy.