Following the Hamas attack on October 7, Israel continues its bombings in the Gaza Strip. Despite Western warnings, Iran and its allies are considering opening further fronts against Israel.
From our correspondent in Beirut,
Despite the daily frequency and violence of clashes between Hezbollah and the Israeli army, which have caused deaths and injuries on both sides since October 7, the escalation on the Lebanese-Israeli border remains limited and under control. The shootings have taken place mainly in the border area and have generally spared civilian infrastructure and residential areas, with the exception of Israeli fire that killed a journalist on Friday, October 13, and two elderly people the next day.
At this stage of the conflict, the warring parties are adhering to the rules of engagement tacitly established since the 2006 war, which have made it possible to stabilize this front through mutual deterrence. However, fears of an expansion of the war raging in Gaza are real. When thousands of men, armed to the teeth and with burning minds, face each other, a simple error in judgment can set off a chain of uncontrollable events that are difficult to stop.
Precisely to avoid such misjudgments by the parties to the conflict, indirect channels are permanently opened. The deployment of the United Nations International Forces in Lebanon (UNIFIL) has been the most requested in recent times, but also diplomatic channels in Beirut and in Arab and Western capitals.
“Joint operations room” for Iran’s allies
Beyond the “technical” reason, the war could spread to the entire Middle East due to a decision by one of the belligerents for political reasons.
Hamas is not an isolated Palestinian organization. It is part of the “Axis of Resistance” that stretches from Gaza to Iran and includes Hezbollah, Syria, Yemen’s Ansarullah movement, Iraqi Shiite groups near Tehran, and Afghan Shiite militias – the Fatimids – of which There are currently several contingents stationed in eastern and central Syria.
Over the past two years, Hezbollah has played a leading role in closing ranks of that alliance by pushing for reconciliation between President Bashar al-Assad and Hamas, which Damascus accuses of supporting Syrian rebels in the to have supported the first years of the conflict.
In the last twelve months, coordination between certain members of this axis has gone beyond the political framework to also include the military and security spheres, with the creation of a “joint operations room” in which representatives of the Hezbollah headquarters, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Hamas, etc The Islamic Jihad in Palestine advises, exchanges information and makes tactical decisions. Strategic decisions are made by the top political leadership of the various actors, with the Iranian supreme leaders of course being crucial, but also the Secretary General of Hezbollah.
All eyes are on party leader Hassan Nasrallah, who has been silent since October 7th. Other leaders of the pro-Iranian party have since spoken out. Executive Committee Chairman Hachem Safieddine insisted that Hezbollah “will not remain neutral.” The leader of the party’s parliamentary bloc, MP Mohammad Raad, ruled that “it is time for temporary unity – the name given to Israel – to disappear.” Deputy Secretary-General Sheikh Naïm Qassem said that “the Lebanese resistance will intervene at the right time.”
Given the risk of the conflict expanding, US President Joe Biden personally warned Iran against involvement in the war and advised the Iranian leadership to “be careful.” Essentially the same message was conveyed this Sunday, October 15, by French President Emmanuel Macron during a telephone interview with his Iranian counterpart Ebrahim Raïssi.
American aircraft carriers are intended to deter the Tehran-led axis
For his part, Joe Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on Sunday that the United States cannot “reject the hypothesis that Iran decides to directly intervene in the current war in one way or another.” “It is a risk, and it is a risk that we have been aware of since the beginning of the conflict,” he added.
To deter Israel’s enemies from intervening directly on Hamas’s side, the United States has sent two aircraft carriers to the eastern Mediterranean. In response to pressure and warnings from the West, Iran activated its diplomacy by sending its Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian to Baghdad, Beirut, Damascus and Doha.
In Qatar, the last stop of his trip, the head of Iran’s diplomacy stated on Saturday, October 14, that “if the Zionist regime’s attacks against the defenseless population of Gaza continue, no one will be in control of the situation and the prospect.” Attack can guarantee.” Expansion of the conflict. The Iranian minister, who also spoke by phone with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi, said Hassan Nasrallah informed him in Beirut that “all scenarios were on the table” regarding the party’s possible intervention in the ongoing conflict, adding that Hezbollah did this “defined the red lines.”
Sources close to the pro-Iran Lebanese party tell RFI that the opening of other fronts against Israel “does not depend on a specific event – such as the start of a ground offensive against Gaza – but on an assessment of the overall situation.”
In this regard, Hezbollah circles are confident that Hamas can inflict “unbearable losses” on the Israeli army in the event of a ground battle.
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Palestinian “transfer” is “a red line”
“If, despite the resistance of the Palestinians, the West continues to cover up the massacres and the plan to relocate the population of Gaza to Egypt, the time for the big battle will have come,” these sources add. We will not allow Israel to regain its deterrent power, which was seriously weakened by Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, without a fight. »
These sources do not exclude direct involvement of the American air force in the event of an opening of the Lebanese front, in particular by bombing the supply line coming from Iran at the Boukamal border crossing in Syria and elsewhere.
Given such a development, new actors could join the war, in particular the Ansarullah movement, which has drones and ballistic missiles capable of reaching the Negev, the desert region in southern Israel, estimates an expert on Arab issues and international events in Beirut .
Developments over the next 48 hours will be crucial and that is likely why Hassan Nasrallah will speak this week for the first time since the war began, according to a well-informed source in Beirut.
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