A real threat of war escalation may also come from within Israel, from the West Bank, if not from the heart of the country. We talk about it with Professor Charles Kupchan, former national security adviser in the Obama and Clinton administrations and now a professor of international politics at Georgetown University.
Professor Kupchan, is there a risk of an escalation of this war and how would this manifest itself?
“There are three paths that would lead to an escalation of the conflict. The first is that of an intervention by the pro-Iranian Hezbollah militias from Lebanon, but also from Syria, where Iran has gathered its agents. Risks also exist in the West Bank, where we have already seen numerous clashes between Palestinians and Israelis, and finally I see an insidious danger in Israel itself, because we have already had violent clashes, let’s not forget what happened in Lod, a mixed city Jewish-Arab community near Tel Aviv, where two years ago we experienced the worst episodes of internal violence since the country’s founding in 1948. A civil war would break out.”
Iranian influence is now established, although it appears that Tehran was not the one who gave the green light to the Hamas operation. What is driving Iran to destabilize the Middle East?
“Their foreign policy is not dissimilar to Russia’s. Their main goal is precisely to destabilize and overthrow the status quo. They are agents of chaos. They have militias in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Gaza and probably the West Bank. With this network of agents they expand their power. But I don’t think they have any intention of starting a large-scale war. The deployment of a first American aircraft carrier and now a second is a clear message from the Biden administration and should motivate it to be cautious.”
Do you see an opportunity for relaxation instead?
“At this moment it is difficult to imagine a détente, but I am sure that despite all the warlike rhetoric, despite the pain of the horror suffered and the sense of unity of the country, diplomatic scenes are also being prepared and we are thinking about them Future.
Who should take part in a diplomatic campaign?
“The same ones working to facilitate humanitarian assistance, the US, Turkey, Egypt, Qatar.” Their attempts to create safe zones for civilians, open the Rafah border crossing and convince Israel to exercise caution in retaliation are initiatives that can lead to real diplomatic peace efforts.”
In your opinion, is there anyone in the world today – be it a country or a global organization like the UN – who is ready to lead Gaza into the future?
“NO. That’s a simple answer. But I also don’t think Israel will make Gaza independent again. Have they already done so and what did they get in return? Rockets and slaughtered children.”
What future do you see then?
“The only hope I have is that the Palestinians and the Israelis will look into the abyss they have created and understand that they must look for an alternative.” But we must remember that this war will limit the possibilities of one Peace between the two parties is pushing back opportunities that in reality had already faded, in part because of the Abraham Accords.”
But why shouldn’t the Abraham Accords bring peace to the Middle East?
“Instead, they are the reason Palestinians feel forgotten and left behind.” Their own brothers, who were supposed to support and help them, sided with Israel. Saudi Arabia was also close to signing the agreement with Israel. And that would have meant that the center of gravity of the Arab world would have changed and the Palestinian cause would have been completely forgotten. The cruel irony of this story is that the region appears to be heading toward a different future for Arab-Jewish coexistence. And it is the reason for the Palestinians’ anger. Those who reject the status quo inherited from Israel, a state of paralysis without rights.”
What should the international community do?
“If Israel succeeds in destroying Hamas, we must all push for a lasting political solution. We can’t pretend we don’t see it. Israel’s right to exist, defend itself, and punish such brutality draws you to its side. Then you see the other side of the coin, the decades-long suffering of the Palestinians, physical and mental suffering… It’s not a black and white issue. It is a difficult moral dilemma that, if not resolved, will continue to have tragic consequences.”
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on Il Messaggero