The government of Bibi NetanyahuHe is now at the end of the race, expanded to the opposition as a “war manager”, and is preparing for theGround invasion in the Gaza Strip with tanks and cover from the skies of F16 fighters. A strategy that will cause hundreds if not thousands of deaths and a geopolitical earthquake across the Arab Middle East. The fact is that the extraordinary military power of Israelhit hard after the attack by Hamasmust be assessed based on two factors: the disproportion of forces in the field compared to the Palestinian enemy and the level of anger and willingness to do so vendetta of the Israelis, for the over 1,400 dead.
Diplomacy prevents a broader wave of violence across the region That’s not possible, Israel doesn’t want it. Nevertheless, there is a risk of the conflict expanding, fueled by possible intervention by armed forces on the northern front Hezbollah The amount financed by Iran is increasing every hour. If this is the case, there is a factor behind the scenes of the war that was never officially taken into account: the Atomic bombs heard Tel Aviv, ninety nuclear warheads distributed at various locations in the Israeli desert, as I document in detail in my book “Third World War” (Chiarelettere). Israel is the only country among the nine nations of the nuclear club (USA, Russia, China, Great Britain, France, India, Pakistan and North Korea). never admitted Have nuclear missiles. As if they didn’t exist. Still, they loom large in foreign policy and military strategy priorities, especially today as Israel’s war to destroy Hamas enters its toughest phase.
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The national imperative has always been deny the evidence. If nuclear power is a big taboo everywhere, it is an absolute taboo in the Jewish nation. This silence or tacit pact also has a name: in Hebrew it is called amimut, “opacity.” The military strategy based on the atomic bomb has developed from the founding of the state to the present day. David Ben-Gurion, leader of the World Zionist Organization, founder of Israel in 1948 and first prime minister, disagreed with the idea that Tel Aviv should have bombs. The nation, Ben Gurion thought, was an intrinsic unity fragile, surrounded by mortal enemies with whom war was inadvisable without the support of the United States. Later, his successors believed that Washington’s support, although necessary and motivated, would not be enough to defend itself against enemies who hated it: Israel could survive only thanks to its possession of atomic bombs.
Already, opacity. But on the other hand, what do we have to complain about the Israelis not admitting to having atomic bombs when the Italian government – all Italian governments for decades, from left, center and right up to Meloni – does? the same thing and has never told the truth about it 40 US nuclear warheads (and not NATO) stored in the Ghedi and Aviano military bases?
The truth is that while the war in Gaza rages, the underlying problem remainsIranor rather, the Iranian nuclear power, the US regime’s biggest target ayatollah. The risk of the situation spiraling out of control is real and very high, and escalation is already underway. The type of mutual deterrence that existed during the Cold War and that also exists today, after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in the tense conflict between large geopolitical blocs, i.e. the USA/NATO, the Russian Federation and China, or in bilateral conflicts continues like that between the two neighboring nuclear states in Asia, India and Pakistan, in the Middle East Not functions. There are many traps here and the regimes are unstable, there is the presence of non-state entities (Hamas won the elections in Gaza, but does not represent the Palestinian state), for decades rivalries have been ignited that have historically occurred in different and opposing ethnic groups and religions are rooted in the spirits and influence the decisions of managers.
Iran – which supports both Hamas and Hezbollah politically and financially, as does the Emirate Qatar – He was very persistent in his decades-long pursuit of the atomic bomb. Tehran For years it has withstood very tough US and EU economic sanctions that would have brought any economy to a standstill. It has survived a sophisticated and effective offensive by the Israelis, triggered less by missiles and more by cyberattacks on its strategic infrastructures. There were dramatic assassinations of leading Iranian nuclear scientists by secret US commandos Mossad. But when the military and strategic objectives in the Middle East come to the table, the most important fact that determines everything else is not that Iran wants the bomb, but that Israel has it, even if it cannot use it or admit it to Amimut -Politics (never a single word in the Knesset, on television or a line in newspapers or on the Internet).
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That Tel Aviv would launch airstrikes to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities is unrealistic; the attempt would almost certainly result in oneopen declaration of war. Although Israel’s military capabilities exceed those of any other power in the Middle East, Israel would still face serious threats. Iran would respond to an attack on its nuclear facilities with one retribution against Jewish state targets and perhaps against countries that allowed Israel to use their airspace to reach Iran. Meanwhile, Tehran’s Lebanese ally Hezbollah would begin deploying its 150,000 rockets capable of reaching every corner of Israel. The vulnerable home front and possibly some of its vital infrastructure would be hit hard before the Israeli Air Force neutralizes Hezbollah, probably at the price of destroying Hezbollah Lebanon (as is happening in Gaza).
A international agreement Preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear power is perhaps Israel’s – and the world’s – best hope. But then Barack Obama tried it Donald Trumpimpulsive and without rationality like him, he undid everything as part of the Vienna negotiations. With the complicity of Israel itself (the Prime Minister has always been Benjamin Netanyahu), Trump caused the US to withdraw from the 2015 nuclear deal, even though Tehran had not violated its commitments.
With Hamas’ surprise attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, geopolitics experienced a sudden acceleration or, worse, a very serious crisis screws Spiral whose consequences for the Middle East cannot yet be foreseen. In relations between the great powers – the United States, the Russian Federation, China, the bloc of Arab countries, with Iran at the center – nothing will be the same again. Israeli judges unthinkable for its own survival and for the entire region, the possibility of Iran arming itself with a nuclear weapon. The Jewish state therefore places the nuclear question above all its other missions or objectives, apparently outside the constitutional pact and official policy.
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Israel, Minister Sa’ar: “Gaza will be smaller at the end of the war. Anyone who attacks us must lose territory.”
On November 3, 2021 in Tel Aviv, at the ceremony celebrating the Hanukkah holiday with the President of Israel Isaac Herzog and the Prime Minister (for a short time it was not Netanyahu, but Naftali Bennett) in a very rare public appearance, the Mossad Chief David Barnea stated: “This is my commitment; This is the Mossad’s commitment: Iran will not have a nuclear weapon. Not in the next few years. Never”. Already. But like the entire Israeli intelligence service, Barnea now has to deal with the worst crisis of the last 75 years with Netanyahu in power, as he failed to prevent the deadly attack and the defeat of Hamas. Mistake Capital cityfor which the Middle East threatens to explode.