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- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has received worldwide praise for his wartime response.
- But the ongoing Russian offensive has forced Ukraine and its allies to consider the country’s succession plan.
- What happens if Zelensky is caught or killed? The answer is not entirely clear.
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Even as Russian troops continue to encircle the Ukrainian capital, the country’s unlikely president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has made it clear that he has no plans to flee Kyiv in search of safer pastures.
Thursday marks two weeks since Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale offensive into Ukraine; an attack that has already resulted in thousands of casualties on both sides, millions of refugees and a flurry of international sanctions.
Following the invasion, Zelenskiy reportedly rejected US offers to evacuate Kyiv, even after warning allies of an incursion into the city by “enemy sabotage groups” who see the president and his family as Russia’s “number one target”. ”
“I stay in the capital, I stay with my people,” Zelenskiy said during an impassioned video address late last month.
In a matter of days, Zelensky — a former comedian and actor-turned-statesman — has received worldwide praise for his steadfast presence and defiant demeanor in the face of growing danger. The leader won the respect of his people, as well as international observers, for rejecting a US offer to evacuate him from the city, stating, “I want ammo, not a trip.”
On Monday, Zelenskiy shared videos of himself filmed at the president’s office in Kyiv, his first public appearance there since the invasion began. The 44-year-old leader remained in the capital, delivering inspirational video speeches and directing his country’s military operations for several days from an unknown, heavily guarded location near the city center.
But despite Russia’s string of early setbacks following the country’s chaotic initial attack, several military analysts told The Guardian this week that the Kremlin is slowly solving its logistical problems and could be ready for a successful assault on Kyiv in the coming days.
Such recent military developments, combined with Russia’s clear intent to replace the current Ukrainian government with a puppet regime loyal to Moscow, have left the country and its Western allies pondering the uncomfortable question: what happens to the Ukrainian government, its military effort, and the country itself if Zelensky is captured or killed?
Ukraine’s constitution offers answers and more confusion
According to the country’s constitution, the speaker or chairman of the Ukrainian parliament, known as the Verkhovna Rada, is next in line to succeed the president. The role is currently filled by Ruslan Stefanchuk, Zelenskiy’s former top aide who was a pro-Western supporter.
Stefanchuk remained a prominent public figure during the Russian invasion, campaigning for more international aid and backing Zelensky last week when leaders signed Ukraine’s formal bid for European Union membership.
During a video call last week, Stefanchuk addressed the European Union directly, saying that “the best support for the people of Ukraine in the most difficult hours will be a real recognition of our European aspiration. Give us membership in the European Union.”
US and European officials told The New York Times this weekend that Stefanchuk and other possible Ukrainian successors are expected to continue to oppose Russia’s war.
Western officials have also reportedly urged Ukrainian officials to move Stefanchuk from Kyiv to a safer location as a precautionary measure, advice that Ukrainian officials have resisted, The Times reported. A source briefed on the conversations told the outlet that US officials are discouraging senior Ukrainian succession leaders from staying in the same place for too long.
Anonymous sources told the newspaper that, despite some resistance, Ukrainian officials have made it clear that they understand the importance of a well-defined succession plan.
But after Stefanchuk, it is not clear in the country’s constitution who will be next. The document establishes the positions of the first deputy and deputy chairman, who are tasked with replacing the speaker of parliament, but they are not directly listed in the queue for the presidency.
Meanwhile, when both Zelenskiy and Stefanchuk contracted COVID-19 in 2020, Ukrainian legal scholars speculated that Prime Minister Denys Shmygal would take over as prime minister, The Times reported.
In an essay for The Hill last month, Christina Kholinska, a Ukrainian researcher at the nonprofit RAND Corporation, and William Courtney, a senior fellow at the nonprofit, suggested that the country’s parliament would be wise to take steps to quickly confirm Stefanchuk’s longer line of succession.
Newly elected Speaker of Parliament Dmitry Razumkov (RIGHT) and Ruslan Stefanchuk (LEFT) attend a parliamentary meeting in Kyiv, Ukraine, in this August 29, 2019 photograph. AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky, file
The US and European allies have already begun logistical talks about Ukraine’s line of succession.
On Sunday, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said Ukrainian officials plan to keep the government in the event of Zelensky’s assassination.
“Ukrainians have plans that I won’t talk about or go into any detail about to make sure there’s what we would call ‘government continuity’ one way or another,” Blinken told CBS’ Face. . nation.”
Blinken’s comments came a day after The New York Times reported that Ukraine’s Western allies were discussing how to ensure the preservation of the Ukrainian government.
The reported conversations are particularly timely, as London-based The Times reported last week that Zelenskiy had survived at least three assassination attempts in a matter of days. According to the publication, anti-war agents of the Russian Federal Security Service interfered with the work of two separate groups – pro-Kremlin mercenaries and Chechen special forces.
Zelensky’s death would deal a severe blow to Ukraine’s military effort. His frequent, strong-willed speeches and public online presence have been important factors in the Ukrainian military and people’s continued defiant response to Russia’s attack.
Likewise, the fall of Kyiv or the dissolution of the current Ukrainian government, without a clear continuity, would be just as disastrous. While the US and European allies are unlikely to ever recognize a Russian-imposed puppet government in the country, a leaderless Ukraine would make sustained international assistance much more difficult.
A legally vindicated Ukrainian leader — even one who operates outside Kyiv or is in exile outside the country — will also help counter any Moscow-backed leaders gaining legitimacy, Western officials told The New York Times.