Poland expects the final results of the parliamentary elections to be announced at lunchtime today. According to predictions based on post-election surveys and partial counts, a shift in power is becoming apparent.
According to forecasts, the liberal-conservative opposition Citizens’ Coalition (KO) of former Prime Minister and former EU Council President Donald Tusk is only in second place with 31 percent, but the conservatives Nationals from the Law and Justice (PiS) party, which has been in power for eight years, also lost their absolute majority if they were expected to become the strongest party, with 36.1 percent of the vote.
According to predictions, KO would have 158 mandates. It could form a coalition with the Christian-conservative Third Way (14 percent) and the left-wing Lewica alliance (8.6 percent). The three-party alliance could have 249 deputies and have a majority in parliament if the official final result confirms the results of post-election polls by polling institute Ipsos.
Prolonged government formation expected
PiS was predicted to win 196 seats in the new parliament. The majority is 231 of the 460 mandates. The only possible coalition partner is the ultra-right Konfederacja, whose 15 mandates are, according to forecasts, not enough for a government majority.
The balance of power in parliament can still change in nuances of a few percentage points for the smaller parties. A long government formation is expected.
What was surprising was the high voter turnout of 73.9 percent. President Andrzej Duda spoke of an “overwhelming result”. It was the highest voter turnout since the end of communism in 1989. Observers also see the high voter turnout as a sign that the population wants change.