María Corina Machado, at a press conference in Caracas last week.LEONARDO FERNANDEZ VILORIA (Portal)
There are six days left until Venezuela’s opposition primaries, which have agreed to elect a unified leadership that will compete with Nicolás Maduro for the 2024 presidential election. María Corina Machado clearly dominates all opinion polls, but the consultation is subject to a strong siege and crossfire from several fronts: a still lukewarm attack by Chavismo and a sustained campaign against it by some parts of the democratic field that have lost interest in it. Nothing will be easy in the tender this Sunday as the opposition will have to carry out the process manually and in a self-managed manner.
On his television show Con el Mazo Dando, Diosdado Cabello, an influential member of the Chavista regime, intrigues every week about the difficulties of organizing the event. Cabello, who even requested an investigation against José María Casal, director of the pre-election commission, which was not carried out, has predicted that the elections will not take place. Even in the moderate sectors of the democratic field, amid Machado’s overwhelming popularity, there are increasing voices questioning the primaries and now questioning their therapeutic effect on the opposition.
After Henrique Capriles withdrew his candidacy a week ago, the Fuerza Vecinal party, which accompanied the process, has just proposed its suspension. Among the doubts of the democratic forces is the commitment to the result of the primaries of Un Nuevo Tiempo, a party that also has no candidate and whose founding leader and governor of the Maduro-tolerated Zulia state, Manuel Rosales, has declared that it has ambitions as a presidential candidate outside of the process. Carlos Prosperi, the candidate of the Democratic Action, presented a surprising video on social networks in which he claims to have no information about his voting center and expresses doubts about unresolved difficulties. In addition, some members of the electoral commissions in the interior have quietly resigned.
Certain sectors of society that have been taken over by Chavismo – journalists, analysis groups, citizen activists – insist that “the conditions are not present” to hold the primaries. María Carolina Uzcátegui, who resigned from the pre-election commission and has traditionally been very reserved with the media, has launched a forceful campaign to demand “realism” and “telling the truth” about the problems of the primaries and calls for the elections to be suspended, to prevent this from deceiving people. Luis Alejandro Ratti, an unknown candidate in Venezuelan politics, has filed several appeals with the Supreme Court demanding action against María Corina Machado and the holding of the election.
Some opposition politicians comment privately that the risk to avoid is that serious or unexpected contingencies could arise on October 22 itself. Many voting centers set up voluntarily by activists and small landowners had to be abandoned after tax threats or reprisals from the ruling party. Despite all the restrictions and difficulties, including media censorship, the organization of the primaries appears to be well on track and the organizers remain optimistic.
The latest survey measurements show an acceptable voting intention of around 40%, with the population aware of the event, paying close attention to its impact, but not fully committed to participating. Some political commands in the process assume that they would be satisfied with a participation of one and a half million people.
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Roberto Abdul, member of the Primary Electoral Commission, reported that 3,000 voting centers with 5,000 voting tables will be installed throughout the country, in 331 of the 335 municipalities in the country and in 1,100 municipalities with 15,000 polling station members. The operation was trained in 752 citizen workshops and taught by 1,829 volunteers. As promised, the right to vote for Venezuelans abroad has been guaranteed and ballot papers are being printed. Logistics are increasing while Venezuelan civil society organizations will participate as observers
Despite the resignations and changes in the list of participants – Freddy Superlano of Voluntad Popular will reject his option in favor of Machado – the 12 participating candidates and their commands have reaffirmed their commitment to organizing the activity. Everything indicates that the government of Nicolás Maduro will, in the context of the intensive negotiations that the Chavista leaders are conducting in Doha with representatives of the United States – in which the easing of economic sanctions and the new oil production licenses that Venezuela needs, can be achieved – has allowed the primaries to move forward, and the Chavista high command has, for the moment, refrained from using its tentacles in public powers – the Supreme Court or the National Electoral Council – to behead them. In any case, they still have the expectation that the event will fail either logistically or politically.
The Maduro government is currently very weak in public opinion, but it counts its patrons, anticipates the possibility of protests and occasionally makes threats against its opponents. It has strengthened what is now called the “Popular Units for Peace,” based on the principle of the Citizen-Military Union, a unified command made up of the military, police, civilian groups and members of the militia, deployed on the streets with orders “social “Intelligence” to suppress or prevent protests and intimidate civilians by invoking the principle of civil peace. The security risk in the event of a possible siege by one of these groups is one of the issues most concerning to civilian volunteers in the primaries.
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