DECRYPTION – The residents of the Gaza Strip must “stay on their land,” demanded Egyptian President Abdel Fatah Al-Sissi last Thursday.
Ten days after its offensive in Israel, the Israeli army Tsahal launched its “Iron Saber” operation aimed at destroying Hamas, which is responsible for thousands of killings on the edge of the Gaza Strip. Its armored vehicles assembled at the border are preparing to enter and conduct a ground operation. To avoid civilian casualties and to distinguish between Gaza citizens and Hamas fighters, the IDF called on civilians to evacuate the north of the Gaza Strip to the south, which borders Egypt. “The people who remain in this northern part will be considered terrorists and will be easier to eliminate,” analyzes Fabrice Balanche, lecturer in geography at the University of Lyon 2*.
According to the United Nations (UN), one million people were displaced within a week. However, some are said to be forcibly detained by Hamas, which wants to use them as human shields. In addition, humanitarian aid is being blocked in Egypt, which wants to transport it within the Gaza Strip but refuses to accept refugees on its soil. The residents of the Gaza Strip must “stay on their land,” emphasized last Thursday Egyptian President Abdel Fatah Al-Sissi, candidate for his re-election in mid-December 2023. However, some of the refugees have settled in Rafah, one of the seven departure points from Gaza and the only one with access to Egypt.
Also read: Why Israel is delaying the start of its ground offensive on Gaza
“Repelling the residents of Gaza is Israel’s favorite scenario,” explains Fabrice Balanche. The latter were already being asked to go south and were thus gradually encouraged to flee to Egypt. “Israel believes that we cannot separate Hamas from Gaza society because it controls education and ‘hamasizes’ the population,” the expert added. Therefore, the population was forcibly sent to Egypt and the Hebrew state was freed from an enemy on its borders. A solution that Cairo categorically rejects. “Egypt has already been in this situation during the last Israeli missions and does not want to repeat it,” confirms Emmanuel Dupuy, President of the Institute Foresight and Security in Europe (IPSE).
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The fear of a new “Black September”
Egypt offers several reasons to welcome the 2.2 million people in Gaza. Safety first. Egyptian President Abdel Fatah Al-Sisi seized power by unseating Mohamed Morsi, who was elected by an Islamist Muslim Brotherhood party. “President Al-Sissi is waging war against the Muslim Brotherhood, of which Hamas is an offshoot,” notes Emmanuel Dupuy. The presidency fears the importation of Hamas fighters would swell the ranks of the Islamists against whom it is at war.
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Marshal Al-Sissi also fears the specter of a new “Black September”. In September 1970, Palestinian terrorists who had lived in Jordan since 1948, the founding of Israel, and 1967, Israel’s victory in the Six-Day War, attempted to kill King Hussein of Jordan. A few days later, three planes were hijacked. For several years, the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) had been creating a real state within a state until it went one step too far: this attempted coup. The Jordanian army reacted violently and shelled the refugee camps until the PLO was driven towards Lebanon.
The massive settlement of Palestinian refugees, combined with armed operations, was one of the triggering factors of the Lebanese civil war. “It is a very feared scenario,” confirms Fabrice Balanche. Abdullah II of Jordan, son of Hussein, warned on Friday against “any attempt to expel Palestinians from all Palestinian territories or provoke their expulsion.” He added that “the crisis should not spread to neighboring countries and exacerbate the refugee issue.”
Finally, the Sinai region bordering Israel, where these refugees were initially accepted, is in the grip of an Islamist insurgency. Hamas fighters who have infiltrated the refugee columns could swell the ranks of Ansaïr Baït al-Maqdis, which was renamed Sinai Province after its alliance with the Islamic State in 2014. The former name meant “follower of Jerusalem”. “They want to achieve the liberation of the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem and are committed to the ‘Palestinization’ of Jerusalem,” recalls Emmanuel Dupuy.
The price of a good reputation
Cairo may also increase the cost of hosting Gaza’s 2.2 million residents. “Egypt is an overpopulated country with a fragile economy and doesn’t really want a new mass of poor people entering its territory,” notes Lorenzo Navone, author of a dissertation on the Egypt-Gaza border. “Egypt is currently blocking this reception in order to raise the stakes and ask for maximum help,” said Fabrice Balanche.
An increase in American military aid, Western subsidies and money from UN organizations could also lead him to reduce his reservations about this welcome. “Egypt receives significant military assistance from the United States through agreements. In other words: military supplies in exchange for peace. Egypt does not want to give up this aid, which is fundamental for the military in power,” explains Lorenzo Navone. In addition, “Egypt receives $25 billion annually from Saudi Arabia,” points out Fabrice Balanche. A lever that the Americans, allies of Saudi Arabia, could use to influence President Al-Sissi.
Also read: Egypt and the United States work to open humanitarian corridors to Gaza
However, such a welcome would come with another price: Egypt’s reputation in the Arab-Muslim world. “Egypt would be accused of having betrayed the Palestinian cause,” says Fabrice Balanche. “Egypt rhetorically rejects the expulsion of the Palestinians from Gaza and supports them in their struggle for a sovereign state,” recalls Lorenzo Navone. A position also shared by the Arab League based in Cairo. The admission of these refugees, whose likelihood of returning to Gaza would be low, would de facto confirm the expulsion of Palestinians from the Gaza Strip. Which would not be condemned by the Arab neighbors for nothing.
Beyond diplomatic disapproval, if Marshal Al-Sissi welcomed Gazans, he would also face a challenge from the Egyptian streets. “The street remains pro-Palestinian, even if Egyptian leaders accept the Camp David Accords, which established the normalization of relations with Israel,” notes Fabrice Balanche. The “Iron Saber” operation to destroy Hamas could therefore also weaken one of Israel’s most important allies in the region, Egypt.
Fabrice Balanche is also an associate researcher at the Washington Institute (think tank). A Middle East specialist, he is the author of Atlas of the Near East (2017) and Sectarianism in Syria’s Civil War (2018).
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