Chavismo and the Venezuelan opposition signed an agreement this Tuesday in Barbados to hold presidential elections in 2024which was welcomed by the United States, the European Union (EU), Canada and the United Kingdom.
“We welcome the Venezuela-led political agreement reached today in Barbados. This agreement represents a necessary step in the continuation of an inclusive dialogue process and the restoration of democracy in Venezuela,” said a joint statement quoted by Europa Press.
The text states that the EU and the governments of the three remaining countries “support a peaceful negotiation outcome leading to fair and competitive elections and a return to economic stability and security” and are ready to work “with international partners”. to “address the urgent needs of all Venezuelans inside and outside their country.” and to alleviate the humanitarian crisis.
“We continue to demand the unconditional release of all those unjustly imprisoned, the independence of the electoral process and judicial institutions, freedom of expression, including for members of the press, and respect for human and political rights,” the document says.
Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula a Silva celebrated the agreements, stressing that it was “an important step towards Venezuela’s return to normality.”“, in a statement from the Planalto Palace, the seat of Brazil’s executive branch.
“At a time when differences are deepening in other parts of the world, the understanding between Venezuela’s political forces shows that dialogue can produce effective results,” the president said.
The agreements signed between the Nicolás Maduro regime and the platform that unites the main formations of the Venezuelan oppositionafter the resumption of talks, establishing political rights and electoral guarantees, as well as lifting sanctions and respecting Venezuela’s sovereignty.
According to sources cited by the Washington Post, it already exists a tenet of the agreement between the US government and the Venezuelan regime to mitigate penalties related to the oil industryan important source of income for the South American country.
A senior US government official anonymously assured the Washington Post that the agreement was between Joe Biden’s administration and the Maduro regime does not include the release of assets from Venezuela that are currently frozen in the United StatesThe agreement, which imposed sanctions 15 years ago, was significantly tightened under Donald Trump’s administration and after the 2018 Venezuelan elections. The agreement calls for granting Venezuela’s state oil agency a general license to resume doing business with both the United States and other countries. .
The news was met with a drop in oil futures prices in markets, which interpreted the news as a possibility of an increase in crude oil supply.
However, investors remain concerned about shocks to the industry, compounded by heightened geopolitical risks stemming from the war between Israel and Hamas.
Despite the optimism with which the EU, US, UK, Canada and Brazil have greeted the agreement, Venezuelan analysts interviewed by the BBC are skeptical. One of their main reasons for distrust is the disqualification that weighs on several opposition candidates, especially María Corina MachadoFavorite to win the opposition primaries this Sunday.
“The key to the agreement will be how effective the agreed monitoring and review mechanism is so that the agreed guarantees, most of which are already provided for in Venezuelan law”says Mariano de Alba, a Venezuelan analyst at Crisis Group, a think tank.
Another Venezuelan analyst, Luis Vicente León, points out that “these agreements will neither comprehensively solve the country’s multiple problems nor save institutions or electoral competitiveness, but that does not mean that their specific and gradual advances are irrelevant or secondary .”
Regarding the disqualifications, he claims that his dismissal would be “excellent news but unworkable at this stage”. The cost of leaving the government is infinite and she will not take that risk. Stick to the idea that it won’t go to waste. It’s not about wishes, it’s about realities,” he clarifies.
The question of disqualification was left open in the agreement signed this Tuesday. It is likely that opposition candidates will initiate qualification processes, but experts doubt this the National Electoral Council of Venezuela, which is considered close to the ruling partyallow the candidates who have the most support to take part.
This is the result of a survey carried out this week by the Delphos company on behalf of the Center for Political Studies at the Andrés Bello Catholic University Only 10% of the Venezuelan population say they are Chavistas and support Maduro.