We always have this debate in our green room on NFL Sundays: What do people care about when it comes to picks – straight-up record or picks against the spread?
I say they are picks against the spread.
This week I’ll be happy to say that. That’s because in Week 6 I was better against the spread than straight up. Imagine that.
Last week I was 9-6 ATS and 8-7 straight up. This brings my season record straight to 56-37 and my ATS record to 45-45-3. Yes, I finally got back up to .500.
Now it’s time to top it all with an outstanding Week 7. Let’s go.
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime Video)
This is a tough game for the Jaguars on a short road week. Things get even tougher when Trevor Lawrence gets beaten up. He is expected to play, but how limited will he be? He’s not the only Jaguars player feeling bad. The Saints also have some injury issues. The Jaguars played the better football of the two, and that carries over to that.
Choose: Jaguars 23, Saints 20
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
This is one of the better games of the week. The Lions are playing back-to-back road games, but the Ravens have a trip to London under their belt. The Ravens haven’t found the right tone on offense yet, but it’s coming. The problem is that Detroit’s defense is really good. Still, the Ravens and Lamar Jackson should find a way to win this game since the offense is actually performing better.
Choose: Ravens 23, Lions 17
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
This could be a game between backup quarterbacks. It will be rookie Tyson Bagent for the Bears and likely Brian Hoyer for the Raiders, although Jimmy Garoppolo could still leave. Still, it’s a big advantage for the Raiders. They played better and their defense is better. Raiders keep winning.
Choose: Raiders 27, Bears 14
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Browns pulled off an impressive home win over the 49ers with PJ Walker at quarterback. They may have Deshaun Watson back, which will strengthen the offense. The defense was special. Gardner Minshew was terrible against the Jaguars last week, and this is a much better defense. The Browns win again even if Watson doesn’t play.
Choose: Browns 23, Colts 10
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Patriots are a mess right now, but the Bills didn’t look great on Sunday night when they beat the Giants. That won’t matter here. The Bills have owned the Patriots for the past few years and this version of Bill Belichick’s team is terrible. Look for Josh Allen and the offense to get back on track here. Blow out.
Choose: Bills 31, Patriots 14
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Giants suffered a tough road loss in Buffalo, while the Commanders won well on the road against the Falcons. They play two consecutive away games but are the better team. I wonder if the Giants line can withstand this defensive front. That won’t be the case, even with Tyrod Taylor’s ability to move. Washington wins it.
Choose: Commanders 27, Giants 13
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
Both teams have suffered disappointing losses, but this is a big division game as the division is still wide open. The Bucs didn’t do much on offense last week, but that will change here. Look for Baker Mayfield to get back on track and surpass Desmond Ridder. Bucs, take it.
Choose: Bucs 24, Falcons 19
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Steelers earn a bye while the Rams earn a home win over Arizona. The Rams defense played well in this game, which is not good for the Steelers offense, which has struggled all season. The Rams can attack the Steelers from the air with Matt Stafford and his receivers, which is why they will win this game.
Choose: Rams 24, Steelers 20
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Seahawks are coming off a tough road loss to the Bengals, while the Cardinals are playing back-to-back road games following their loss to the Rams last week. The Cardinals offense struggled in this game, which is a concern. Seattle’s offense missed a lot of scoring opportunities. They won’t be here. Seahawks take it.
Choose: Seahawks 28, Cardinals 17
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Packers are coming off a bye, but they didn’t look good in their last loss to the Raiders. You are healthier now, which is important. It will be a big challenge to get Aaron Jones back. The Broncos are a mess. The defense is poor and the offense is struggling. The Packers will move football here because Jordan Love is playing well and Green Bay is winning.
Choose: Packers 30, Broncos 21
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Chargers are coming off a tough home loss against the Cowboys, where Justin Herbert didn’t play well. Now he faces a good Chiefs defense. Kansas City has a game under its belt on Thursday night and is therefore rested. The Chargers pass defense is struggling, so look for Patrick Mahomes to finally have his big day this season. The chiefs take it.
Choose: Chiefs 34, Chargers 27
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)
This is the game of the week featuring two 5-1 teams. The Eagles are coming off a tough loss on the road against the Jets, while the Dolphins have won their last two games against bad teams. The Eagles will regroup here, but I think both teams will score a lot of goals. This will be a fun shootout. But the Eagles take it.
Choose: Eagles 35, Dolphins 29
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN, fubo)
The 49ers, who lost to the Browns on Sunday, are back on the road against the Vikings, who beat the Bears last week. The 49ers are struggling on offense and may be without Christian McCaffrey and several other key players. This game is about San Francisco’s defense. The front will force Kirk Cousins into some crucial mistakes that lead to points.
Choose: 49ers 29, Vikings 20