WASHINGTON (AP) — A Pentagon report on China’s military power says Beijing is exceeding previous forecasts about how quickly it is building up its nuclear arsenal and is “almost certainly” drawing lessons from Russia’s war in Ukraine about how a conflict can be resolved Taiwan might look like.
The report released Thursday also warns that China may be pursuing a new intercontinental ballistic missile system with conventional weapons that, if deployed, would allow Beijing to “threaten conventional attacks against targets in the continental United States, Hawaii and Alaska.” .
The China report comes a month ahead of an expected meeting between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and President Joe Biden on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit in San Francisco next month.
The annual report, required by Congress, is a way for the Pentagon to measure the growing military capabilities of China, which the U.S. government sees as its biggest threat in the region and America’s biggest long-term security challenge.
But after Hamas’ attacks on Israel on October 7, the US was forced to refocus on the Middle East instead of focusing on the Pacific to counter China’s growth. The US is sending weapons to Israel and continues to support and supply ammunition to Ukraine in its 20-month battle to repel the Russian invasion.
Still, the Pentagon’s national defense strategy is focused on the fact that China remains the biggest security challenge facing the United States and that the threat from Beijing will determine how the U.S. military is equipped and positioned for the future.
The Pentagon report builds on the military’s warning last year that China was expanding its nuclear forces much faster than U.S. officials had predicted, and highlights a broad and accelerating buildup of military strength that should allow Beijing to to match or even surpass the global power of the USA by mid-century.
Last year’s report warned that Beijing was rapidly modernizing its nuclear force and was on track to nearly quadruple the number of its warheads to 1,500 by 2035. The United States has 3,750 active nuclear warheads.
The 2023 report found that Beijing is on track to deploy more than 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, continuing a rapid modernization aimed at achieving Xi’s goal of having a “world-class” military by 2049 feature.
After the previous report, China accused the US of escalating tensions and Beijing said it remained committed to a policy of “no first use” of nuclear weapons.
The Pentagon has seen no signs that China is deviating from that policy, but believes there may be circumstances under which China might conclude it is not applying it, a senior U.S. defense official said, without providing details to call. The official briefed reporters on Wednesday ahead of the report’s release on condition of anonymity.
The U.S. does not have a “no first use” policy and says nuclear weapons would only be used in “extreme circumstances.”
The report said China is increasing military, diplomatic and economic pressure not only on Taiwan but also on all of its regional neighbors to push back against what it sees as U.S. efforts to curb its rise. The pressure on Taipei includes ballistic missile overflights, increased strikes by warplanes into the international defense zone and a large-scale military exercise last August that circled Taiwan.
Beijing has promised to bring Taiwan under its control by force if necessary. Xi has given his military until 2027 to develop the military capability to retake the self-governing island democracy that the Communist Party claims as its own territory.
The United States has provided Taiwan with billions of dollars in military weapons to expand its defenses and help the country ward off possible attacks.
But China has also poured billions into its military. According to public budget figures, China’s military spending rose 7.2% to 1.58 trillion yuan, or $216 billion, in 2023, outpacing economic growth. U.S. officials say the actual number could be much higher. Beijing says it is pursuing a defensive military policy to protect the country’s interests.
The report also found that China has increased its harassment of U.S. warplanes flying in the region’s international airspace, recording more than 180 cases of Chinese aircraft aggressively intercepting U.S. military flights.
The report focuses on China’s activities in 2022, but delves into the US’s overflight of the Chinese spy balloon and how a lack of communication between the two militaries increased the risk of escalation. It does not take into account the recent war between Israel and Hamas, but it noted that Beijing is using lessons from the Russia-Ukraine war. China is working on industrial and economic self-reliance after seeing the impact of Western sanctions against Moscow.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine presented “a major, unexpected challenge” to China, the report says, forcing the country to measure its relationship and material support with Russia by the “reputational or economic costs” to it could arise and that would hinder its overarching goal of becoming a national power as a country.
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Associated Press writer Didi Tang contributed to this report.