Thursday will be a great day. Not only are there two LCS games, we also know that it’s the first of two consecutive days of double-header LCS action. At this point, Friday is our last guaranteed day of the 2023 season with more than one baseball game. That’s always good.
Plus, it’s another chance to continue this winning streak here at Best Bets. After a little over two weeks of playoff games, I’m now 23-10. Special thanks to the Astros’ offense, who scored over 4.5 runs in Game 3 of the ALCS and only needed four innings to bring us home. As we like to say at Early Edge (watch it every day at 10 a.m. ET!), it was sweat-free money.
Starting pitchers: LHP Ranger Suárez (4-6, 4.18) vs. RHP Brandon Pfaadt (3-9, 5.72)
The series shifts to Arizona as the Diamondbacks have the tall task of beating these Phillies in four of the next five games to advance to the World Series. Both teams have a gap between their top two starters heading into the third round, but it may not be as big as many people think.
In the regular season and playoffs combined, the D-Backs have a home record of 44-38, while the Phillies have a road record of 42-41. The Phillies won three of four games in Arizona this season.
The game: Trea Turner over 2.5 H+R+RBI (+120)
They’re after me! In eight playoff games, Turner has gone 7-0 over 1.5 with this prop and has won over 2.5 in the one game in which he was higher. I was still playing here, so we’re 8-0 against Trea and I’m not moving on until he misses the over at least once. If you’ve been following along, this is no surprise.
If you don’t have any information yet and/or would like more information:
- In his final 47 regular season games, Turner hit .339 with a .677 batting average. He had 64 hits, 42 runs and 41 RBI, a 3.13 per game average at that prop.
- In his eight playoff games, he hit .500 with an SLG of .967(!). He has 15 hits, eight runs and four RBI, for a 3.38 average at the base.
- He went 5 for 16 (.313) with one RBI and four runs in four games at Chase Field that season.
- In 29 career games at Chase Field, Turner hit .361 with a .680 batting average. That’s 44 hits, 25 runs and 23 RBI (3.17 of those assists per game).
- Best of all, with Bryce Harper lurking in the lineup behind Turner, not to mention Turner’s ability to steal bases, it would be really stupid to go with him. You have to keep pitching to him.
Looking for more analysis? SportsLine has you covered with expert picks for the 2023 MLB Playoffs.
Astros (-101) at Rangers (-118), 8:03 p.m. ET
Starting pitchers: RHP Jose Urquidy (3-3, 5.29) vs. LHP Andrew Heaney (10-6, 4.15)
We have a series? Yes I think so. After the Astros won Game 3, the Rangers’ lead in the ALCS is now 2-1. Are we going down the path of the 2019 World Series, where every single game was won by the away team? It’s far too early to make such declarations, but one emerging theme in these playoffs may be the Astros’ crazy divisions. The Astros are now 40-45 at home and 54-30 away, regular season and playoffs combined. We could say that this is strength against strength as the Rangers have a record of 51-32 at home. On the other hand, the Astros have now won seven of eight games in Arlington this season.
The game: Astros over 4.5 runs (-113), Jose Altuve over 1.5 H+R+RBI (-130)
The Astros averaged 5.7 runs per game on the road during the regular season and scored 20 in three playoff games away from Minute Maid Park. They also seem to love hitting in Arlington because here’s how their runs Points scored at Globe Life Park in 2023 went by game: 2, 5, 12, 13, 14, 12, 8.
The Heaney/Dane Dunning combination was the way the Rangers operated in Game 1 of the ALDS. In Heaney’s last two games against the Astros, they picked him up for six earned runs in 9 2/3 innings. The last time Dunning faced the Astros, they scored nine runs in the first three innings.
Altuve has both. He hit .324 with a .568 slugging percentage against Heaney in 38 career plate appearances. In 13 PA against Dunning, he hit .455/.538/1.091 with two home runs.
We know how hot Altuve can get and he’s played in a lot of big postseason games. After a brief lull, he went 2 for 5 with a home run in Game 3. Two of his outs were deep fly balls (one would have been a home run in 12 other stadiums, the other in 13, according to Statcast). ), so he smashed the ball all night.
With this strong batting order, he will have plenty of chances to top that easy number.