ESPN Oct 19, 2023, 6:35 p.m. ET8 minute display
Michael Brantley turns back the clock to make an impressive catch
Michael Brantley tracks down the ball and makes an impressive catch that denies the Rangers a run in the bottom of the sixth inning.
It’s a two-game Thursday in the league championship series as the 2023 MLB playoffs begin.
Will the Houston Astros even win the ALCS after a big win in Game 3 in Arlington? Can the Arizona Diamondbacks find some comfort food after a rough start to the NLCS in Philadelphia against the Philadelphia Phillies?
ESPN MLB experts Alden Gonzalez, Buster Olney, Jeff Passan, Jesse Rogers and David Schoenfield break down where both series stand before Thursday’s games, and we’ve got all the action with live updates and insights from Texas and Arizona during the Games covered.
Important links: Complete playoff schedule and results
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The encounters on Thursday
Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks
Game 3: 5:07 p.m. ET (Ranger Suarez vs. Brandon Pfaadt)
Phillies lead the series 2-0
Are the Phillies as unstoppable as they looked in the first two games?
Schönfield: Given the importance of home runs this postseason (teams that beat their opponents have odds of 17-3), I asked Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo if his team needs to find a way to beat the Phillies to have a chance to have in the series. His response: “If you make that statement, I definitely agree with you. It’s like having a team full of threes against someone who only shoots twos.” Right now, the Phillies have all 3-point shooters. Unless the Diamondbacks suddenly sign Steph Curry and Kevin Durant, this streak is over.
Rogers: The short answer is yes – but keep in mind that the Phillies lost one of their two road games this postseason. Arizona’s best chance is to move them out of Citizens Bank Park, but even considering how the Phillies are currently playing, giving them enough of a boost might be wishful thinking. Let’s face it, the Diamondbacks will be more than happy with their season even if they lose in the NLCS. The bottom line is that it would be a win for the D-Backs if the series returns to Philadelphia.
Passan: Well, they play as close to flawless baseball as possible. Their offense is crushing home runs. Their starters strike out hitters and limit walks. Your auxiliaries carry out gas and pump attacks. Their defense is clean and efficient. Seriously, it’s hard to find fault with the Phillies right now, and they’ve been playing this type of baseball since the start of the postseason. But unstoppable? This is baseball. There is no such thing as unstoppable. Brandon Pfaadt could shut out Philadelphia in Game 3 or Ranger Suarez could implode, and suddenly the Phillies’ mood would feel very different.
How much will leaving Philadelphia and hosting Chase Field help the D-Backs?
Schönfield: Well, I have a feeling there could be a lot of red at Chase Field – and I mean a maroon hue. Before the Phillies won the first two games, the “starting price” was $115 and has now dropped to $15. Anyone from the Greater Philadelphia area can now purchase tickets at affordable prices. According to TickPick, the “starting price” for Philly was $467, so we might even see some Phillies fans take a little three-day vacation to soak up some sun in the desert. Oh: And Bryce Harper is hot. Kyle Schwarber is hot. Nick Castellanos is hot. Trea Turner is hot. Game 3 starter Ranger Suarez is hot.
Rogers: Put it this way: If Game 3 starter Brandon Pfaadt had to pitch in Philadelphia, it would likely be even worse than what we saw from Arizona pitchers in the first two games. He has a chance to contend at home – especially if he lasts through the first inning, when the Phillies love to pounce on the opposing starter. Without any real statistic to prove it – other than their home record – there’s little doubt that the Philly crowd leaves an impression. Every fan base could learn something: There is such a thing as a 10th man in baseball.
Passan: That’s like asking how getting out of prison can help a man who longs for freedom. In the last two games, the Diamondbacks have played in the loudest, most hostile, most unforgiving and unforgiving stadium in baseball – a horror shop for visiting teams, especially in the postseason. Chase is by no means Citizens Bank Park West, but at least not every run the Phillies score is accompanied by deafening cheers. It is the duty of Phoenix area fans to give their team at least a fraction of the advantage that Philadelphia fans give them.
Game 3 lineups
Phillies
Kyle Schwarber (L) DH
Trea Turner (R) SS
Bryce Harper (L) 1B
Alec Bohm (R) 3B
Bryson Stott (L) 2B
JT Realmuto (R) C
Nick Castellanos (R) RF
Brandon Marsh (L) LF
Johan Rojas (R) CF
Diamondbacks
Ketel Marte (S) 2B
Corbin Carroll (L) CF
Gabriel Moreno (R) C
Christian Walker (R) 1B
Tommy Pham (R) RF
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R) LF
Evan Longoria (R) DH
Emmanuel Rivera (R) 3B
Geraldo Perdomo (S) SS
Houston Astros at Texas Rangers
Game 4: 8:03 p.m. ET (Jose Urquidy vs. Andrew Heaney)
The Rangers lead the series 2-1
Now that the Astros have won a game in Arlington, how likely is this series to go the distance?
Gonzalez: I don’t know if it goes the distance, but it aligns with my overarching thought for Game 3: that this series is far from over. Losing the first two home games of a best-of-seven series is usually a death sentence, especially at this stage. But these Astros exist in their own stratosphere. They are in the ALCS for the seventh straight year. And for some inexplicable reason, they have been far better away from home (51-30) than they have been at home (39-42) this season. They feel particularly comfortable at Globe Life Field, where many of their hitters say they see the pitches particularly well. It’s easy to imagine they needed at least two out of three things to send this back to Houston. And that’s where things would get interesting.
Olney: I don’t think it will come to that. One team or another will gain momentum in Game 4 – if the Astros win, they’ll top the standings. If the Rangers win Game 4, I think they will finish it here in Arlington. Both teams’ pitching depth will be challenged, and most importantly, so much will fall on the shoulders of Rangers lefty Andrew Heaney, who has made just one appearance this month. They need him as a stopper trying to slow down the Houston hitters after they beat Max Scherzer and the relievers that followed in Game 3.
Passan: The Rangers still have the home advantage. You can still complete the ALCS at Globe Life Field. They still have a No. 8 hitter (Josh Jung) who can hit a home run against the most unbeatable postseason pitcher we’ve ever seen, and a No. 9 hitter (Leody Taveras) who can hit a home run in his first seven times Came to base six in this series and stole a home run from Yordan Alvarez in Game 3. And they still have Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi slated to start in Games 5 and 6, a back end of the bullpen that is in the rested last two days, and a lineup that was the best in the American League this postseason. Only fools count the Astros out, but the Rangers still have the edge, and there’s still a good chance this series will end at five or six rather than seven.
How should the Rangers approach the red-hot Yordan Alvarez for the remainder of this series?
Gonzalez: Obviously there is no real answer here. If so, I trust Bruce Bochy and all the coaches and analysts around him to find it before we do. But it’s interesting to see that while Alvarez is putting up incredibly eye-catching numbers in these playoffs, he’s also chasing at a rate of 37%, nine percentage points higher than the major league average during the regular season and more than 10 Mark percentage points more than his own. Of course, this is a relatively small sample size. But there might be something to him trying to force action while other Astros hitters struggle behind him. So there you go – let him hunt. But best not to miss it.
Olney: Alvarez is the best hitter on Earth, on the Moon, in another galaxy, wherever he happens to be swinging a bat. After the damage he did in Game 3, one has to assume that sleep-deprived Bruce Bochy will consider giving him the Barry Bonds treatment for the rest of this series, especially with Jose Abreu and Kyle Tucker behind him stand. At this point, the question of whether or not to pitch against Alvarez is like choosing between the risk of a home run and the possibility of an out. Your best chance of retiring seems to be to line up three Leody Taverases on the fence and hope for a robbery.
Passan: Luckily, Buster, there is no cloning machine to triple Leody Taveras, because the Astros would use it to destroy Yordan Alvarez and simply blast their opponents into oblivion. It’s enough for Bruce Bochy at the moment. And if anyone making it today knows anything about walking intentionally left-handed hitters, it’s Bochy, who saw his opponents do it to Barry Bonds 43 times in 2007. While Alvarez has a history of panicking in alternating postseason series, his performances in Games 2 and 3 suggest that will stop here – and if a leverage situation arises (and Jordan Montgomery isn’t on the mound). , who fools Alvarez with death balls), Bochy shouldn’t be afraid to call for the autowalk and take his chances on someone who isn’t one of the best hitters in the world.
Game 4 lineups
Astros
Jose Altuve (R) 2B
Maricio Dubon (R) CF
Alex Bregman (R) 3B
Yordan Alvarez (left) DH
Jose Abreu (R) 1B
Kyle Tucker (left) RF
Chas McCormick (R) LF
Jeremy Pena (R) SS
Martin Maldonado (R) C
ranger
Marcus Semien (R) 2B
Corey Seager (left) SS
Evan Carter (S) LF
Adolis Garcia (R) RF
Mitch Garver (R) DH
Jonah Heim (S) C
Nathaniel Lowe (L) 1B
Josh Jung (R) 3B
Leody Taveras (S) CF