From the President Joe Biden a speech last night completely insufficient to the situation. Although the parallelism between Hamas and Putin is aimed at winning congressional support for the new $105 billion spending request for military support to Israel and Ukraine, it is unbalanced and unsustainable, perhaps effective on the domestic front but ridiculous on the domestic front. Outside. If anything, the parallelism in terms of threat level and military capabilities lies in between Iran And Russia.
For the first time, the President called Iran without needing prodding from the press, to say that he “supports Russia in Ukraine and supports Hamas and other terrorist groups in the region. And we will continue to hold them accountable” – although without the Iranian regime with him to the Hamas attack and in a short passage that will not be in the headlines of newspapers and television.
Because the speech was not about blaming Tehran for the past, present and future attacks of its proxies; it was about blaming Tehran for the past, present and future attacks of its proxies to appease and appease the Arab world and the Palestinians They focus on humanitarian aid, condemn Islamophobia in the US, and reinforce the concept that “Hamas does not represent the Palestinian people” – which it does pure hypocrisyHamas has a majority consensus in Gaza, but probably also in the West Bank.
By the way, President Biden returned from a visit to Israel yesterday and responded to reporters on Air Force One disputed that US officials suggested to Israel that US forces would join the IDF in the event of a Hezbollah attack: “That is not true. Has never been told.
The red line challenged
At this very moment All pro-Iranian militias – armed, financed and effectively controlled by the Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – are mobilized and activated (Gaza, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen), with attacks against Israel and even against US military bases. Therefore, the red line drawn by the Biden administration, which warned state and non-state actors not to intervene (“Don’t”), is correct openly challenged.
If the Biden administration does not respond and restore credible deterrence, it is effectively inviting Tehran to do so more widespread escalations.
But Washington seems to be in one State of denial, denial of Iranian role and intentions. The Pentagon even states that it does not view the attacks in Syria and Iraq, as well as the missiles from Yemen, as part of a general escalation by the IRGC, but rather as events that should be considered “individually.”
Attacks on US bases
The first one yesterday Attack by pro-Iranian militias, using drones and missiles, against the US military base al-Tanf and the Conoco field in Deir el-Zor, Syria. Drones and missiles also at the Ain al-Asad air base in western Iraq. Last night, rockets also hit Baghdad International Airport, where US forces are stationed. US forces had already carried out two drone strikes in Iraq on Wednesday, one of which left some soldiers slightly injured.
Attack in any way announced both from the Iranian foreign minister’s words about the impending opening of other fronts by what he called the “Axis of Resistance” and from the visit in recent days of the commander of the IRGC’s Quds Force to Syria and Iraq, where met with militia leaders. The then-president carried out similar attacks Donald Trump responded in 2020 by killing the commander of the Quds Force Qassem Soleimani.
Houthi missiles intercepted
But that’s not all: While attacks by Iranian proxies on US forces in Syria and Iraq are increasing rapidly, a total of seven in 48 hours, the USS Carney was forced to attack in the Red Sea on Wednesday evening intercept some missiles and dronesApparently there were two dozen fired northwards by the Houthis in Yemen, probably aimed at Israel. And at least one missile was intercepted by Saudi defenses.
Inadequate deterrence
These attacks mean only one thing: that the Iranian regime, rightly or wrongly, perceives this Weakness of the Biden administration. And it is Testing the red line This has been repeated several times by President Biden himself since the Hamas attack. Iran appears to have expected that it could launch proxy attacks against Israel and US forces without suffering direct retaliation. Regardless of whether this calculation is wrong or not, the deterrence signals launched by Washington were obviously not sufficient, and if Biden did not respond, the situation could improve degenerate very quickly in an even worse escalation.
So far, both the White House and the Secretary of State Antony Blinken They said they had no evidence of Iranian involvement in the Hamas attack and appeared unwilling to even name Iran. Former Foreign Minister Mike Pompeo, under Trump, had placed the Houthis on the list of terrorist organizations, but one of Blinken’s first acts in office was to remove them. And it should not be forgotten that the killing of 30 American citizens in a single day by Iran’s proxy in Gaza went unanswered by the United States.
What we had feared since the Hamas attack on October 7th has unfortunately happened. Tehran appears to have done so Intention to escalate gradually by activating its militias in Syria and Iraq and maintaining Hezbollah in Lebanon, at least for now. In fact, it is likely that he is considering whether or not to mobilize Hezbollah based on the American response. He will take his actions based on the level of response – or non-response – in Washington.
What else has to happen to believe crossed the red line pursued by Biden, whom Tehran is testing in these hours?