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Before we get to Saturday’s games, let’s take a look at yesterday’s news from Ann Arbor. Plus, Bruce Feldman joins us to discuss questions about the USC offense.
Sign-stealing spies?
Another investigation in Michigan
The NCAA is investigating the Michigan program over allegations of sign stealing, it was announced yesterday. Here’s a breakdown:
- Stealing signs in and of itself is not against the rules. Bruce Feldman wrote a behind-the-scenes look at the detective work in 2018. The coaches Feldman spoke to estimated that 80-90 percent of college teams do some form of it. Sign stealing means what it sounds like: It’s about reading signals from opposing teams to know what play they’re about to play before it happens.
- The rule in question is NCAA Bylaw 11.6.1, which states: “Off-campus personal scouting of future opponents (in the same season) is prohibited.” NCAA claims Michigan uses ‘vast network’ to steal opposing teams’ signs, a source familiar with the allegations said.
- On Wednesday, Michigan State (which plays Michigan on Saturday) and other future opponents of the Wolverines, including top-10 rivals Penn State and Ohio Statewere informed about the investigation.
In a Yahoo report, sources claim that Michigan may have done this “unnamed people used” to attend games and explore signs used by “scheduled opponents and possible College Football Playoff opponents.” An ESPN overnight report says “a subordinate employee with a military background” is one of the keys to the scheme.
And don’t forget that Michigan is under investigation for a number of Level II violations. We will keep you updated as this story develops.
Feldman files
USC offensive questions
For all the questions and criticism of USC’s defense, the Trojans’ offense has actually come into question. Even though the Trojans are averaging a hefty 7.77 yards per play – second-best in the Pac-12 behind Washington’s eye-popping 8.49 – their numbers have declined significantly in recent games. Three weeks ago, USC averaged 7.66 against a woeful Colorado defense (No. 115 nationally), but it was 6.29 against Arizona and then just 4.16 against Notre Dame in a game in which The Trojans also turned the ball over five times. It’s no coincidence that USC’s rushing numbers have declined significantly over time.
A big problem for the Trojans right now, according to opposing coaches, is that their offensive line may be as much of a problem as their defense, perhaps even more so.
“It’s a really weak group,” said one opposing coach who faced USC. “They don’t look like what a USC O-line should look like. They look like they’re playing with people who would be in the Mountain West. I think Caleb (Williams) has made up for a lot of that, but maybe that’s why he’s breaking down a little now and always trying to do too much.”
The statistics reflect this last point. According to PFF, Williams, who was the top-ranked pressured passer in FBS in 2022, is now the 175th pressured passer – or fifth-worst – in 2023. It echoes a quote a veteran NFL scout told me on Monday: “It’s like he’s trying to hit a five-run home run every time.”
This scout made an interesting observation that he believes leads to another issue the Trojans’ line is dealing with: “They sit in their positions for about 30 seconds waiting to get the play and shoot the ball, and then they are. “I had so many false starts and ended up in a terrible rhythm with no pace.”
It will be fascinating to see how USC responds to last week’s atrocious performance at Notre Dame. Now next up is Utah getting the stingiest defense in the Pac-12. The Utes lead the conference in sacks and rushing defense.
Penn State and Ohio State are both 6-0 overall and 3-0 in the Big Ten heading into their matchup on Saturday. (Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
Week 8 Breakdown
Playoff tests, rivalry showdowns
Impact on the College Football Playoff
Noon: No. 7 Penn State (6-0, 3-0 Big Ten) at No. 3 Ohio State (6-0, 3-0), Fox: Penn State hasn’t won in Columbus since 2011 and James Franklin is 1-8 against the Buckeyes. The stakes are high, but our writers answer this lingering question: Is Penn State-Ohio State a real rivalry?
Afternoon: Washington State (4-2, 1-2 Pac-12) at No. 9 Oregon (5-1, 2-1), 3:30 p.m., Fox: Both teams have a chip on their shoulder. The Cougs have lost two in a row, while Oregon is coming off a heartbreaking win over Washington. (No. 24 Minnesota, Iowa, was another contender here. Why? Because the troubled Big Ten West could actually help determine the East.)
Prime Time: No. 16 Duke (5-1, 2-0, ACC) at No. 4 Florida State (6-0, 4-0), 7:30 p.m., ABC: Florida State’s Keon Coleman looked unstoppable last week. Meanwhile, Duke awaits the return of QB Riley Leonard from an ankle injury. There is a lot at stake in this game for the ACC title.
Rivalry fights
Noon: No. 22 Air Force (6-0) at Navy (3-3), CBS: The Falcons have won three straight in this series. Both teams rank in the top five in rushing yards, and Air Force looks to be one of the best teams in the Group of 5. Another note: The home team has won nine of the last ten games in the series.
Afternoon: No. 17 Tennessee (5-1, 2-1 SEC) vs. No. 11 Alabama (6-1, 4-0), 3:30 p.m., CBS: Last year’s thriller featured Tennessee’s 15-game losing streak against Bama. But both teams have new identities this season. Will the Tide take back control of the series?
Prime Time: No. 2 Michigan (7-0, 4-0 Big Ten) at Michigan State (2-4, 0-3), 7:30 p.m., NBC: In this case the pressure has increased. Aside from the latest news out of Michigan, this is the Wolverines’ first trip to East Lansing since losing a heartbreaker in 2021. The black cloud hanging over it all, of course, is last year’s tunnel incident that left many wondering: Has this rivalry grown? poisonous?
Stars of the FCS: The Dakotas
The four Dakota programs (South Dakota, South Dakota State, North Dakota and North Dakota State) crush the competition. The only losses (other than games against each other) were against Boise State and Missouri. All are ranked in the top 15 in the FCS, with SDSU being the absolute No. 1 seed. The defending champion Jackrabbits have a top-five rating on offense and defense.
- South Dakota at Indiana State, 1 p.m., ESPN+
- South Dakota State at Southern Illinois, 3 p.m., ESPN+
- Western Illinois at North Dakota State, 3:30 p.m., ESPN+
- North Dakota at Northern Iowa, 5 p.m., ESPN+
Best bets from Austin Mock
Penn State at Ohio State (-105), first half under 22: “I don’t have a strong opinion on this game, but both offenses struggled here. Take into account that both teams started the games slowly on offense and we may have to wait for the second half to see some fireworks.”
Tennessee at Alabama (-115), under 48.5: “My model is a big fan of Alabama’s defense, especially their run defense. Tennessee will have a hard time finding success on the ground, and I don’t like its chances of finding the end zone if it’s one-dimensional. Alabama’s offense also had trouble scoring. This game could be the exact opposite of last year’s Shootout in Knoxville.”
Duke +14.5 (-110) at Florida State: “It all depends on whether Leonard can leave, which I think he will. But I trust that Mike Elko has prepared his defense to slow down the Seminoles offense regardless. Duke has an exceptional pass defense and slowing down the most efficient part of Florida State’s offense is essential to staying within two touchdowns.”