In a year in power in Italy, Giorgia Meloni, who went from the status of the feared leader of a far-right party to the more amicable status of a “friend” of Joe Biden, has caught everyone off guard.
Many observers feared that whoever celebrates the first anniversary of her inauguration at the head of the government this weekend would mark a radical turning point in Italian politics, while in foreign policy she would finally adopt a moderate line and a program of the right-wing revolutionary the home front.
Despite her Euroscepticism, the 46-year-old head of state has tried to maintain a constructive attitude towards the European Union and its partners, apart from some disputes with Paris and Berlin on the migration issue.
It also pledged Kiev’s full support to Moscow and should withdraw Italy, the only G7 country that joined the project in 2019, from China’s New Silk Roads.
Her support for Ukraine earned her a knighthood from Washington in July: “We have become friends,” the American president told her in the Oval Office.
At the same time, she strengthened her electorate through tax cuts, resolutely anti-migrant policies and defense of the traditional family, and managed to keep her Fratelli d’Italia party at the forefront of voting intentions.
“She managed to appear moderate as a partner while at the same time being seen as radical,” Luigi Scazzieri, a researcher at the Center for European Reforms, tells AFP, while wondering how long this subtle balance will last.
Berlusconi 2.0
Fratelli d’Italia, founded in 2012, remained a fringe party for ten years before winning the September 2022 elections with 26% of the vote.
His coalition, consisting of Matteo Salvini’s Anti-Migrant League and the conservative Forza Italia party founded by Silvio Berlusconi (who died in June), is forming the most right-wing government on the peninsula since World War II.
According to the YouTrend institute, more than 28% of voting intentions are currently attributed to his party.
The government has reduced the tax burden, especially for families, a traditional priority of conservative voters, observes Lorenzo De Sio, professor of political science at Luiss University in Rome.
Economic policy is more tolerant of tax evasion and largely follows the line of previous right-wing governments, leading to a kind of “Berlusconi 2.0,” Mr. De Sio summarizes.
Ultimately, this government is proving to be “significantly less radical than we might have expected,” he concludes.
Giorgia Meloni did not forget to send messages to her many voters, motivated by her positions on migrants, maintaining order and defending Christian values.
In doing so, the executive barred local authorities from registering the children of gay and lesbian couples, who are not allowed to adopt or use surrogate mothers in Italy.
Ms. Meloni continues to defend the traditional model of the family, a father and a mother, even if she is more flexible when it comes to marriage. On Friday she announced that she was separating from her partner, the father of their seven-year-old daughter.
“Do it better”
The migration issue was central to the election campaign: both Ms. Meloni and Mr. Salvini had promised to block boats transporting migrants from the North African coast to Italy.
Despite a series of legislative decrees, the number of migrants arriving in 2023 more than doubled compared to 2022.
Giorgia Meloni called on the EU to help, in particular by supporting an agreement with Tunisia to prevent departures from that country and by welcoming an agreement reached in Brussels on the distribution of asylum applications.
However, the results of these efforts have been slow to translate into reality: according to a YouTrend poll for the long-running news channel SkyTG24, immigration is at the top of the list of reasons why voters are dissatisfied with the government’s actions.
Ms. Meloni herself admitted that she hoped to “do better” on the matter and showed her frustration when she attacked a Sicilian judge who refused to apply one of her decrees, which the judge considered a violation of humanitarian and European law.
The economy is not doing as well as hoped, forcing Rome to revise its growth forecasts downwards. The national deficit is also likely to be higher than expected.
The prime minister also has to reckon with her restless “ally” Salvini, who has stepped up his anti-European and anti-migrant speeches ahead of the 2024 European elections.
If Giorgia Meloni fails to prove that her balanced approach serves Italy’s interests, Luigi Scazzieri will be forced to change and harden her political line.