Economy Minister Sergio Massa and ultra-liberal “anti-system” economist Javier Milei came first in the first round of Argentina’s presidential election on Sunday, October 22, and will partially compete in the second round on November 19, according to official information.
Sergio Massa, 51, candidate of the government bloc (center left), overcame the handicap of record inflation and came first with 35.9% of the vote, ahead of Javier Milei, 53, with 30.5%, confirming his breakthrough since his emergence According to the election authority, 76% of the votes were counted two years ago.
Rarely since the return of democracy forty years ago has an election been so uncertain for Argentina, Latin America’s third-largest economy with chronic inflation that is now among the highest in the world (138% over a year).
A “Trumpist” in the second round
Javier Milei, a self-described ultra-liberal “anarcho-capitalist” economist who promises to “smash the state,” admires Donald Trump and denies human responsibility for climate change, has barely turned the tables on politics in two years , to the point that they are at the top of voting intentions.
“We are ready to form the best government in history,” declared Mr. Milei, a polemicist who appeared on television in 2021. Since then, he has pursued a “clear” theme, against the “parasitic caste,” as he said, Peronists (center-left) and liberals, who have alternated in power for twenty years. “Let them all disappear, let there not be a single one left!” he said at the end of the campaign.
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According to polls that have underestimated him in the past, the 53-year-old Milei was credited with around 35% of voting intentions, ahead of Sergio Massa (30-31%), the 51-year-old economy minister and candidate of the governing bloc (center left), and Patricia Bullrich (26%) from the opposition alliance (center right), a 67-year-old former security minister under liberal President Maurico Macri (2015-2019). To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive at least 45% of the vote, or 40% but 10 points ahead of the runner-up.
Massa, Minister of Inflation, “more political than technical”
It may seem surprising that the minister of an over-indebted economy with one of the highest inflation rates in the world (138%) and a falling currency would qualify for the second round. It is the whole art of Sergio Massa, 51 years old, elegant and lively lawyer by training but full-time politician for 25 years, to plow his furrow so wide that he appears as the least bad option for an unpopular leader.
A centrist and once liberal politician, he was chief of staff to Peronist President Cristina Kirchner, then a candidate in the 2015 presidential election against the same Peronists, before joining them. In 2022, he was entrusted with a “super ministry”, a firefighter at the bedside of an economy in intensive care.
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Massa was more “political” than technical, man of dialogue and above all pragmatic and knew how to maneuver by maintaining dialogue with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the necessary adjustments. While maintaining the voice of the trade unions and without igniting a social fire. However, without stopping the reduction in purchasing power. A bit like a doctor “who has not cured the disease but whose patient is not yet dead,” scoffed Clarin, a daily newspaper close to the opposition.
During the election campaign, he tried every means possible to dissuade Mr Milei from “taking the plunge” to ensure that the worst of the crisis is over with the end of a historic drought – which has deprived the country of 20 billion in agricultural raw materials. Export dollars. He promised a “government of national unity,” a challenge in a polarized country.
Economic uncertainties
Argentines have learned to live with the uncertainty of the next day: 12.4% inflation in August, 12.7% in September (monthly record in 32 years) and prices fluctuating from week to week. And a daily battle over prizes: purchases at the beginning of the month, juggling between different credits.
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The peso has fallen from 99 to 365 per dollar at the official rate in two years – and almost 1,000 pesos at the parallel street rate, a real “barometer of fear” for Argentines, according to Mr Gedan. And they do not forget the shock of the day after the August primary, a “rehearsal” for the presidential election in which Mr. Milei (30%) made a surprise breakthrough: the peso was devalued by 20% under pressure. “Argentina will continue on Monday (…) we have to convey calm,” Sergio Massa wanted to reassure on Sunday.