On the night of August 13, 2023, the night on which the results of the Simultaneous and Mandatory Open Primaries (PASO) in Argentina were announced, the political system that has dominated the scene in recent years went into a state of shock. A third force, which emerged outside the Argentine party-political tradition, took part in the general presidential election and came first. But not only that: a scenario emerged in which third parties broke with “the rift” that had dominated the last 15 years, and this force, in the year of the 40th anniversary of the democratic recovery, questioned the foundations of the democratic consensus achieved in 1983.
The results of the October 22nd parliamentary elections allow for three scenarios worthy of analysis that will unfold in the coming hours.
The first and most relevant is the result obtained by the official candidate. Sergio Tomás Massa, candidate of the Unión por la Patria and at the same time Minister of Economy, not only managed to keep the votes obtained in the PASO, but also gained almost 10% and became the candidate with the most votes in the parliamentary elections, and all this against the background of a annual inflation of more than 100% and a currency devaluation that threatens Argentina’s macroeconomic stability. What is called a real “comeback”.
The third force, in turn, which surprised the entire Argentine political class but also PASO analysts and media, La Libertad Avanza (LLA) and its candidate for the presidency of the nation, Javier Milei, retained the same share of votes as those obtained in PASO.
Since August, when he was the candidate with the most votes, a series of statements against the basic democratic consensus dear to Argentine common sense, reform proposals that are institutionally unsustainable in the medium term and a discursive identification with the new rights have been added on a global level, which seem to have no support in the Argentine character. And although these may have been the reasons for the loss of votes between PASO and the parliamentary elections, the truth is that, according to the results of October 22, the LLA’s legislative bloc includes around 35 deputies (crucial for the ability to govern in the next elections). years) and manages to advance to the second round together with the official candidate.
In this scenario, it is important to think about what will happen to the third force voices at the national level. Together for Change and PASO’s winning candidate, Patricia Bullrich, who was less moderate and dialogue-oriented than her then-opponent Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, lost almost 6% at the national level between August (PASO) and October (General). And although it is still too early to draw conclusions about where these votes went on this occasion (whether the more moderate party opted for the ruling party, fearful of anti-democratic speeches, or the most extreme for Milei, who went after the “original “ who seeks harder positions). ) The truth is that something uncertain will happen in the second round to the roughly 24% who finished in third place today.
So in this scenario, three keys remain to ponder over the coming days.
The first is about the strength of Panperonism at the national level. Throughout history, it has proven to be a movement capable of regrouping and adapting under new, ever-competing leadership, even in Argentina’s darkest hours of democratic and economic stability. Today it is clear that it will be reconstituted and consolidated under the leadership of Sergio Tomas Massa.
The second point concerns the stability of the coalition between the Radical Civic Union and the PRO, consolidated in 2015. Will the coalition partners vote the same in the runoff election? Is it possible for the radical members of this coalition to vote for a candidate like Milei who has explicitly insulted their values? And will the hard voters of the PRO follow the plans of its founder Mauricio Macri, who has repeatedly shown his sympathy for Javier Milei and his ideas? These are unknowns that are confirmed by what appears to be a certainty today: in the coming days, the stability of this coalition will only be discussed by its members.
The third and perhaps most important point 40 years after Argentina’s democratic recovery is that the results of October 22 show that 30% of Argentine citizens find electable candidates and speeches that deny the basic consensus of democracy and the framework of consolidation rights and questions it as the cause of the recurring economic crises the country is experiencing.
Looking ahead to November 19, the day on which the vote between Javier Milei and Sergio Tomas Massa will be decided, this will perhaps be the biggest challenge of the year in the face of another economic crisis that is putting pressure on daily life with very high inflation rates political system can be overcome.
Subscribe to continue reading
Read without limits
_