María Corina Machado won this Sunday the opposition primaries in Venezuela and becomes Nicolás Maduro’s main rival in the 2024 presidential elections. As the polls showed, Machado had no rival and received 93% of the vote in 26% of the vote in a consultation that took place simultaneously in Venezuela and 28 other countries. “Today is not the end, but it is the beginning of the end,” Machado said shortly after learning of the results.
Voting proceeded normally, despite all the logistical problems that arose, such as the difficulty of finding each voter’s table. It was a consultation carried out by the opposition itself and without any technical support, but the challenges were resolved over time and nothing deterred thousands of Venezuelans who waited in long lines in the sun or the rain to cast their vote.
Machado’s victory is a first major victory for the opposition, which managed to push the process forward and elect a unity candidate, but it raises a big question. The politician was banned from running for elected office for 15 years by Venezuela’s Auditor General (CGV) in June. The CGV argued in 2015, the day she first became incapacitated, that she had not included some bonuses she received as a substitute in her asset declaration – Machado denies that was the case. That sanction from eight years ago was expanded this year because the politician reportedly defended U.S. sanctions against Venezuela. This latest court decision coincided with the breakthrough of his candidacy and was another example of Chavismo using legal tricks to thwart its opponents.
The doubt is definitely on the table. Will Machado be able To as a candidate for the presidential election? That’s difficult to answer at the moment. The agreement reached last week by the Unity Platform of Venezuela and the Chavista government in Barbados stated that eligibility would be encouraged “for all candidates and political parties” for next year’s elections, but it is not at all clear . That’s how it is. The government has already moved away from the possibility of lifting the lockdowns, although we will have to wait for the result of the pressure from Washington, which has just announced the temporary lifting of sanctions on Venezuelan oil, gold and gas and will only expand if Chavismo supports the path to fair elections in 2024. Machado is not a rival that Chavismo likes. In the polls, he surpasses Maduro himself, who has fallen into disrepute due to the country’s severe crisis, and his candidacy has sparked a wave of encouragement across much of Venezuelan society.
The desire for change brought Venezuelans to the streets, even in cities, regions and neighborhoods that until recently were bastions of Chavismo. Up to 21 million people were called to vote. Organizers overcame delays in the delivery of voting materials and some isolated confrontations with Chavista bases that resulted in some tables not being set up, while there was widespread confusion over the location of voting centers.
The opposition organized it at its own risk, having shown little interest in the National Electoral Council (CNE) – where Chavismo is in the majority – and not even being reported by the national media, as it was under pressure from the government to stop the process to ignore. The election was also opposed by part of the opposition – albeit a minority – who considered that the conditions to hold a consultation of this magnitude with guarantees were not present. But no brakes could handle the massive influx, with long queues recorded forcing the day to be extended several hours after polls closed. Results were expected around 10 p.m. local time, but hours after voting centers closed, internet servers began to fail, delaying the counting and publication of results. The first bulletin was released after midnight with 26% of the vote, showing that the policy was unrivaled. The second most voted was Carlos Prosperi with 4.75% of the vote.
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The primaries came at a time of understanding between the United States and Venezuela. In Barbados, the Chavista government and the opposition agreed to hold presidential elections in the second half of 2024, as set out in the constitutional calendar. So far, Chavismo has refused to set a date. Other agreements were reached, such as the need to invite technical election observation missions, and the last agreed point on rights and political guarantees was respect for the results of the presidential elections. Washington interpreted all this as progress and announced an easing of sanctions and waited for Maduro to take further steps towards democracy. Hours later, the Caracas government released five political prisoners. In just 24 hours, the negotiation made further progress than in the entire last year.
Although these announcements have already had little success in the past, they nevertheless renew the hopes of Venezuelan society, which has been politically paralyzed for years and is more concerned with surviving the everyday crisis than inventing a new way to get rid of Chavismo. The victory of the primaries, beyond that of Machado, is that he took to the streets en masse to elect a competitor to Maduro and regain the electoral path after years of doubts by the opposition about its participation in the elections it organized or not the government.
The road ahead is still long and will be full of difficulties. Machado enjoys the support of citizens, but although all opposition parties have promised to respect the result, the candidate maintains a difficult and in many cases null relationship with other leaders of the democratic forces. The politician is considered a radical wing of the opposition, she defends privatizations and the economic dismantling of the state and has for years taken the hard line against Chavismo, which sought the violent end of Maduro with the help of the USA. , a thesis that gained traction during Donald Trump’s time in office but never grew beyond more than an idea.
Now the candidate is determined to oust Chavismo through elections, but it is unknown what she will do if the government prevents her from registering in the presidential election. Other opposition leaders, such as Henrique Capriles, who was also disqualified, defend that if approval is not achieved, another unity candidate will have to be chosen who can run and win the polls to beat Maduro. But the whole debate opens tomorrow. Today Venezuelans celebrate the success of the primaries, which were challenged until the last moment by enormous difficulties.
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