In the mid-1990s, the great Argentine historian Tulio Halperín Donghi published the classic “The Long Agony of Peronist Argentina”, in which he reported on the inexorable end of the society built on the foundations of the first Peronism (1945-1955), that of Peronism, organized was a welfare state. This torment has lasted almost 30 years and is linked to survival, as shown by Sergio Massa’s unexpected victory in the parliamentary elections and his chances of winning the second round on November 19th.
Minister of Economy of an unpredictable and helpless government, in the context of increasing social disintegration and with an overwhelming population, 12% monthly inflation, poverty of more than 40%, external debt of more than 400 billion dollars and the latent danger of hyperinflation The candidate of the Unión por la Patria increased his performance in the August primary by 15 points, overcoming his apparent failure. Some scandalous proposals and statements from Javier Milei and his judicial circle, the zigzag campaign of Patricia Bullrich and the greater mobilization of militants and leaders of territorial Peronism, especially in the province of Buenos Aires (which accounts for 37% of the register), contributed to The The ruling party would attract new voters who defend a range of rights and social achievements and are afraid of the proposals of the leader of the most radical right.
Hyperkinetic in his dual role as minister and candidate, Massa achieved some material gains in recent months – such as the end of the income tax – with the ability to light and launch fireworks that obscured the tragedy of the present.
Plastic under plastic, Massa has also managed the feat of becoming independent from Alberto Fernández and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner without being a debtor – or representative – of any tradition at all: he has ignored Kirchnerism as a political identity and, with exceptions, not even He has that Flags of the first Peronism waved. He is the leader of a movement that bears his name, Massism, and operates from a pragmatic center. Like an astute Zelig, in his victory speech he offered the possibility of reinforcing the second-round electoral front with Trotskyists, right-wing Peronists centered in the province of Córdoba, and radicals from the Radical Civic Union under the broad form of the Unidad National.
On the night of his bitter defeat due to the unexpected, Milei, on the other hand, emphasized his status as a liberal and tried to replace the driving forces of his speech – the promise of dollarization and the end of political caste – with an idea of a return to the division of Kirchnerism. – Anti-Kirchnerism to attract the displaced voters of Together for Change (the party alliance that made Mauricio Macri president between 2015 and 2019).
In the last midterm elections 24 months ago, Together for Change was the strongest opposition force, winning with 42% of the vote. The crisis of the ruling Peronism and the poor expectations for the economy suggested that the path to power was paved. A unified voice of opinion polls, opinion leaders and mass media viewed the election as won by the opposition “Together for Change”, first with Horacio Rodríguez Larreta and then with Patricia Bullrich. Since Sunday evening, Together for Change has been in danger of an implosion due to the bad luck of a very big defeat and the positions identified for a runoff election. Macri has shown his sympathy for Milei and part of his squad, and his junior partners, such as the Radical Civic Union, tend to more or less discreetly support Massa or stay out of the race.
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Milei’s power lay in his will to complete the collapse of what existed – including Peronist Argentina – and in his will to destroy what remained. Now he faces a new and bigger problem: How can he win 20% of the electorate to go from his 30% to the 50% he needs to become president? He is faced with the dilemma of changing – or maintaining – his behavior and adjusting his excesses and the excesses of those around him.
It is advisable not to rush into forecasts. The electoral calendar began in August with Milei as the black swan and continued in October with Massa as the black swan. Argentina, an overrated, over-opinionated and over-commented country, could offer a third and final black swan in November.
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