It would be a mistake to allow the fascination of the movement of the pieces to obscure the structural changes of the board. Because what is changing in Argentine politics is the board. The triumph of Economy Minister Sergio Massa puts one main phenomenon in the background: the Peronist coalition Unión por la Patria, which he represents, held one of the worst elections in its history. Massa received 9,645,983 votes. An achievement if you compare this number with the number in the primaries, in which he received three million fewer votes. But a very bad choice if we refer to the election that won the same force in the 2019 elections, when the current President Alberto Fernández triumphed, having received 3.3 million more votes than Massa this Sunday.
The key to success lies elsewhere. It lies in the rupture of non-Peronist representation. There were more than 14 million votes in this area, representing 54% of the election. But divided between two candidates: that of the far-right Javier Milei of La Liberad Avanza, who received 30% of the vote; and that of Patricia Bullrich of Together for Change, which brought in 24%. Bullrich represents a coalition that attracts right-wing citizens who identify primarily with the leadership of Mauricio Macri, as well as centers of the center and center-left who identify with the old radicalism or with the leadership of Elisa Carrió.
This fragmentation of the non-Peronist field reflects an important change in the playing field. The crisis lies in this area. Because what is that? An important factor is the very dismal outcome of Macri’s leadership, plagued by the deep unease that inflation causes when it is accompanied by a decline in economic activity. Many voters see the 2015-2019 period, that of the Macri government, as another chapter in a long stagnation. This experience means that “Together for Change” no longer means change for many voters and is part of an inertia that needs to be broken. This central problem is exacerbated for other reasons. One of them is the Kirchnerian solar eclipse. The coming together of people with very different sensibilities under the umbrella of Together for Change was motivated by the fear that Cristina Kirchner would establish a Bolivarian-style dictatorship at the height of her rule in 2012. Now that this danger has been averted by the weakness of Kirchnerism, the reasons for the treaty become increasingly blurred.
Milei’s big challenge for the second round, which he will contest with Massa on November 19, is to find a flag that unites what was united. That is, to replace the opposition of Peronism, identified as Kirchnerist populism. He began to rehearse this in his final speech at the election rally. It’s the basic plotline: recall the ruling party’s most unpleasant features, particularly those associated with its extravagant levels of corruption. However, this anti-Kirchnerist campaign may be insufficient. Not only because Massa managed to hide a lot from the Kirchner leadership with great advertising art, starting with Cristina Kirchner, who disappeared from the scene. Also because the moral stigmatization of the opponent would not be enough to neutralize the characterization that the government candidate will devote to him.
Massa will launch a campaign modeled on the fight that Lula da Silva led against Jair Bolsonaro. To this end, the Brazilian president personally stationed a group of Brazilian advisers in Buenos Aires. At the top is marketing expert Otavio Antunes, an expert in developing strategies against right-wing applicants. He worked not only for Lula, but also for the Colombian Gustavo Petro and the Bolivian Evo Morales. In all cases the main theme will be democracy versus fascism.
It remains to be seen whether Milei can evoke the attraction that this arrangement of groups has on pro-voters who do not identify with Macri’s leadership or with the voters of radicalism, and also with those of Juan Schiaretti, a dissident Peronist. Governor of the province of Córdoba, who, with moderate proposals, obtained 1,784,000 votes, twice as many as in the primary elections. In other words: We have to see whether the economist Milei succeeds in conveying a democratic and pluralistic message that leads him to the center. It would be a long conceptual journey. Massa has already made it clear: he is the leader who, as a center-right Peronist, can speak with greater plasticity to parts of the moderate middle class who may fear Milei’s extremism.
The candidate of La Libertad Avanza must also attempt another metamorphosis. So far he has acted as a teaching guide who bases his suggestions on theorems and books. Someone who looks more like a social reformer than the president of a country. Will you learn to relate to concrete suggestions? Will it be possible for society at large, which is suffering the indignities of an economy that is already expected to reach 200% inflation by the end of the year? Or will it lighten the image that Peronism paints of him? That is, that of a predatory leader who, in his idolization of market forces, has no inhibitions about plunging the weak into misery. Milei knows there is a problem there. That’s why he made it clear on Sunday: “I’m not coming to abolish rights, but to abolish privileges.” It will soon become clear whether he can solve the problem.
In all these uncertainties lies a great mystery: whether there will be a replacement in the representation of the non-Peronist middle class in Argentina, from the leadership of the leaders of Together for Change, with Macri in the middle, to the leadership of Milei. As this puzzle is solved, there will be fragmentation. It is the sign of this time in Latin America. Therein lies the great risk: that democracy leads to distancing not because of the concentration of power in the hands of one leader, but because of a fragmentation that renders it ineffective.
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